Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[Legend_Of_Joey]

How does Martin compare to Zach Vincej, who was a recent signee on a MiLB deal? From what I have read, Vincej is also a glove first shortstop.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

How does Martin compare to Zach Vincej, who was a recent signee on a MiLB deal? From what I have read, Vincej is also a glove first shortstop.

Martin is soon to be 24 and if the O's take him in the Rule 5 draft he has to spend at least 90 on the major league roster if not the whole season.

Vincej will be 28 in May and is signed to a AAA contract with he O's.  

Both players known for their glove and not their bat.

There is a place for both of them in the O's organization.

[Luke-OH]

39 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

How does Martin compare to Zach Vincej, who was a recent signee on a MiLB deal? From what I have read, Vincej is also a glove first shortstop.

Martin has better pedigree and is more toolsy. I’m not done evaluating Martin yet, but he came out of Florida with a slapping swing that doesn’t work very well with a wood bat. He has recently changed his swing and perhaps that can explain his improved production. I need to watch game video before I’m confident on that conclusion. 

Vincej has a positive launch angle oriented swing and solid contact skills but lacks the physicality to do anything with it.

[Luke-OH]

Josh VanMeter is my favorite bat I’ve looked at so far and I’m like 50-60% through my list of names. More on him to come...

My list went from 72 names to 28 after teams protected players and I’ve dug deeper, with it back up to 65. The thing I’ve noticed is teams are taking less chances leaving arms unprotected this year, no polished AAA relievers with stuff that I can find right now. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Martin has better pedigree and is more toolsy. I’m not done evaluating Martin yet, but he came out of Florida with a slapping swing that doesn’t work very well with a wood bat. He has recently changed his swing and perhaps that can explain his improved production. I need to watch game video before I’m confident on that conclusion. 

Vincej has a positive launch angle oriented swing and solid contact skills but lacks the physicality to do anything with it.

Similar to the situation with Grenier?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Similar to the situation with Grenier?

Somewhat similar, Martin is more athletic in the box and in general, but had a significantly worse swing plane even though he uses his lower half better than Grenier did.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Martin has better pedigree and is more toolsy. I’m not done evaluating Martin yet, but he came out of Florida with a slapping swing that doesn’t work very well with a wood bat. He has recently changed his swing and perhaps that can explain his improved production. I need to watch game video before I’m confident on that conclusion. 

Vincej has a positive launch angle oriented swing and solid contact skills but lacks the physicality to do anything with it.

What about their defense?  Is that not the most important factor?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Josh VanMeter is my favorite bat I’ve looked at so far and I’m like 50-60% through my list of names. More on him to come...

My list went from 72 names to 28 after teams protected players and I’ve dug deeper, with it back up to 65. The thing I’ve noticed is teams are taking less chances leaving arms unprotected this year, no polished AAA relievers with stuff that I can find right now. 

Don't the O's need a very good defensive SS more than a utility player.  That is what VanMeter appears to be over the last three years.

[Luke-OH]

After looking at some of the pre-draft video, it’s really surprising to me that Martin got popped at 1.20.  They must have had a high confidence that they could do something with his swing.

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What about their defense?  Is that not the most important factor?

Yeah, that’s important but that takes watching game video, which I haven’t done yet. They both have positive reputations, I’ll have much more when I finish my preference list.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

Don't the O's need a very good defensive SS more than a utility player.  That is what VanMeter appears to be over the last three years.

In the Rule 5 draft, you don’t get what you want, period.

You just try and find value, because the cost of acquisition is so low. 

Also, like I said, I haven’t looked at Martin yet, so it’s very possible he surpasses VanMeter, but not a given just because people are talking about Martin.

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

In the Rule 5 draft, you don’t get what you want, period.

You just try and find value, because the cost of acquisition is so low. 

Also, like I said, I haven’t looked at Martin yet, so it’s very possible he surpasses VanMeter, but not a given just because people are talking about Martin.

You do a lot of analysis and speaking for many of us, we appreciate all you do.

[Frobby]

Here’s an MLB.com list of one Rule 5 guy from every team.   They choose Luis Gonzalez for the Orioles.    Any interest in the other names here?   https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-the-rule-5-draft/c-301040298

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an MLB.com list of one Rule 5 guy from every team.   They choose Luis Gonzalez for the Orioles.    Any interest in the other names here?   https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-the-rule-5-draft/c-301040298

Backwardsk posted this earlier.  I agree with him that Martin certainly looks interesting.  I'm also intrigued by Wall, Fernandez, and Waddell.

[Luke-OH]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an MLB.com list of one Rule 5 guy from every team.   They choose Luis Gonzalez for the Orioles.    Any interest in the other names here?   https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-the-rule-5-draft/c-301040298

Like Number 5 said, Fernandez and Wall are top names, Wall would be a better fit on a team without as many young OF options, but he’s got a good chance at being taken. Warren is an interesting reliever with stuff coming off an injury. Gatewood is a big power guy who has a good glove at 1st, someone will probably grab him. Wong is a well rounded utility type, not any upside, but ready to provide MLB value. Eusebio is one of the most interesting young arms available but would be a pure stash guy, which doesn’t usually work.

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Backwardsk posted this earlier.  I agree with him that Martin certainly looks interesting.  I'm also intrigued by Wall, Fernandez, and Waddell.

I like Martin as well....I think Dodgers 3B C Santana could be a good option.

You have to wonder if Elias like Riley Ferrell from the Stros.

He has amazing stuff and potential