Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[Luke-OH]

38 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

About Ferrell, I also have the same thoughts. It can help him that Elias and Mejdal know him well, but thy also know his warts well. Not sure I would want to take a rule 5 guy that my coaches have worked with for 3 years and he still cannot find control or command. Depends if they found him to be strong mentally, and coachable as well. 

I thought about Santana, and I like his ceiling. I wanted him in the Manny trade as the second or third piece. It would be tough to keep him unless you really like him to play a decent amount. Rather see a utility/middle infield guy, fourth OF or a bullpen piece. Not out of the question, though. 

I have seen Martin a lot in college. Always liked his energy and overall game. More solid than spectacular is what I remember, but always came to play. I read Luke’s thoughts about him and wonder if Elias will take that type of profile because he can be a placeholder for now. Especially considering our lack of depth in the middle currently. 

Do not sleep on Forrest Wall. May be the best overall hitter ceiling/athlete in this rule 5. Used to be a stud SS as a prep. Hurt his shoulder, had surgery in his Junior year, I believe. That was why he was a 2B. Not sure the arm ever recovered completely, but he can run and hit. Very good nstncts as well. 

Haven’t looked at Santana yet, but soon. Ferrell has some stuff but nothing about him sticks out as a guy who can handle the jump to MLB. 

I do like Wall and he’ll likely be in my top 10, I don’t know how much of a fit he is for the Orioles though. He got moved off 2B, do you think he can handle that position?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

 

Both of those guys have better bat control/contact skills. Martin probably has more raw power than either but he doesn’t get to it. Martin is faster than Valera. Not sure Martin is the defender that Izturis was.

I sort of assumed Martin would fall short of Izturis defensively.  Izzy was +49 Rtot, +63 Rdrs in his career.   If Martin can’t hit as well as Izturis (which was just barely acceptable for a slick-fielding SS), then I don’t want any part of him.  

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Cristian Santana | Rank: 26 (Preseason: NR)

Team: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A Adv)ETA: 2021Position: 3B/1BAge: 21 DOB: 02/24/1997Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6' 2" Weight: 175 lb.Signed: April 21, 2014 - LAD

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

A Dominican, Santana joined the Dodgers toward the end of the 2013-14 international signing period. He made his U.S. debut in 2016, tying for the Rookie-level Arizona League lead with eight home runs. He has continued to bash in 2017, beginning the summer in the Rookie-level Pioneer League and earning a promotion to low Class A after going 22-for-41 (.537) with five homers in 10 games.

Santana has a lot going on in his right-handed stroke, though his impressive bat speed has allowed him to feast on lower-level pitching. He'll have to quiet his approach and develop some plate discipline to tap into some of the best raw power in the system. Though he tends to swing at everything, he still manages to make a lot of hard contact.

Santana has some defensive value as well. He has seen action at third base, first base and second base this year, and projects to become at least an average defender at the hot corner. He has decent speed and quickness along with a strong arm, though his throwing accuracy needs to improve.

2017
PIO
MID

Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
OGD (R)	10	41	18	22	2	1	5	16	6	6	0	.537	.583	1.000	1.583
GL (A)	44	174	18	56	9	0	5	25	5	42	0	.322	.339	.460	.799
Minors	54	215	36	78	11	1	10	41	11	48	0	.363	.390

 

[Roll Tide]

Quote

 

Cristian Santana | Rank: 24 (Preseason: 14)

Team: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A Adv)ETA: 2020Position: 3B/1BAge: 21 DOB: 02/24/1997Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6' 2" Weight: 175 lb.Signed: April 21, 2014 - LAD

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

Signed for $50,000 out of the Dominican Republic as the 2013-14 international signing period came to a close, Santana led the Rookie-level Arizona League with eight homers in his 2016 U.S. debut. A shaky performance in instructional league that fall left the Dodgers wondering if he could survive against better pitching, but he made adjustments and had a spectacular 2017. He batted .537 with five homers in 10 games at Rookie-level Ogden, hit .322 at Class A Great Lakes and then went 7-for-17 (.417) in the high Class A California League playoffs for a combined .366/.394/.556 line.

Santana has worked to calm down his right-handed stroke, allowing him to get more out of his electric bat speed. But he has met few pitches that he won't chase and overswings too often, traits that have proven to be his undoing in his return to the Cal League this year. He needs to develop an approach at the plate and realize that he has so much natural pop that he doesn't have to sell out for home runs.

Santana has an easy plus arm and the ability to make throws from any angle necessary at third base, though his accuracy needs to improve. His decent speed and quickness have led Los Angeles to play him at all four infield spots, though he's better suited for the corners.

2018
CAL

Team	G	AB	R	H	2B

This would be my choice....

[Legend_Of_Joey]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This would be my choice....

I'm not real interested in bringing over a player from High A, especially in the California League that tends to be more hitter friendly, and putting them in the majors. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I'm not real interested in bringing over a player from High A, especially in the California League that tends to be more hitter friendly, and putting them in the majors. 

He’d be a stash for sure, I’d bet he’d likely strike out 35% of the time in the majors. He’s young enough that he could be improving rapidly though, I’ll give an update after I watch some video.

[Just Regular]

FWIW Rotoworld deemed Jacob Gatewood worthy of a "He wasn't protected for Rule 5" fantasy note.

https://mlblogsnofavoriteteam.wordpress.com/2017/01/08/q-and-a-with-jacob-gatewood/

He was a 1st round high school bat in the midst of a decent year before he hurt his knee.  The note suggests the Brewers think the injury mitigates the risk, but if a team doesn't care about time horizon - well nobody has that attribute more than the '19 Orioles.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

FWIW Rotoworld deemed Jacob Gatewood worthy of a "He wasn't protected for Rule 5" fantasy note.

https://mlblogsnofavoriteteam.wordpress.com/2017/01/08/q-and-a-with-jacob-gatewood/

He was a 1st round high school bat in the midst of a decent year before he hurt his knee.  The note suggests the Brewers think the injury mitigates the risk, but if a team doesn't care about time horizon - well nobody has that attribute more than the '19 Orioles.

There is no roster space for another first baseman that has to stay on the O's major league 25 man roster.

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is no roster space for another first baseman that has to stay on the O's major league 25 man roster.

I think positional consideration is almost entirely irrelevant to the club at this early step of the talent accumulation phase.

 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I think positional consideration is almost entirely irrelevant to the club at this early step of the talent accumulation phase.

 

So you would claim him and put him on the bench?

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you would claim him and put him on the bench?

I’m not advocating for picking him (he’ll be on my list but not right at the top), but he’d spend a portion of the year on DL and minor league rehab assignments.

He could also play 3B, not well, but not embarrassingly. 

[Roll Tide]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is no roster space for another first baseman that has to stay on the O's major league 25 man roster.

Plus the guy is a career .240 hitter in over 2000 career Milb ABs. He will be lucky to hit .200 at the majors. No chance he's anything better than a Flaherty type. And he's likely actually worse than that. 

[cman.dc]

No obvious nuggets this year, mostly utility and middling bullpen types (like most years). With that said, maybe Martin to backup SS and 2nd and occasional pinch runner.

[luismatos4prez]

Richie Martin and Forrest Wall both seem okay. I like that they're both fast can steal bases. If nothing else, they can ride the pine and pinch run this year if drafted.

I like Max Schrock a bit, too. Tyler Alexander has decent minor league numbers but he doesn't seem to miss many bats.

Christian Santana is hardly ready for AA much less the majors.

[Jammer7]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Haven’t looked at Santana yet, but soon. Ferrell has some stuff but nothing about him sticks out as a guy who can handle the jump to MLB. 

I do like Wall and he’ll likely be in my top 10, I don’t know how much of a fit he is for the Orioles though. He got moved off 2B, do you think he can handle that position?

Luke, I am not sure Wall’s arm ever came back. In HS, his actions were fine and his hands were good. I would not say he was a plus defender at SS when I saw him. I have not seen him in years, so I don’t know where he’s at now. But his hit tool is very solid. I’d like to find out if he can be passable at 2B. If not, perhaps he can hit enough to make Rickard expendable as the 4th OF.