2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[maybenxtyr]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

I expect Davis will be with the O's all of 2019.  

Mancini will turn 27 on March 18th.   That means he will be 30 going into the 2022 season.   Too old to be with the O's for a run to the WS 2023 and 2024.   I think Mancini could be traded this off season if he can bring back a young prospect or two.  The only reason I see for  Mancini to still be with the O's on April 1st is if no one makes an offer the Elias will accept.  He will be shopped this winter IMO.

Mountcastle will turn 22 on Feb 18th.   He does not have enough minor league service time to need to be on the 40 man roster.  He has not played a day at AAA yet.   There is no need  to start his major league clock in 2019.  I think he spends the year in AAA.  

I think Davis and Trumbo play most games in 2019.   Hopefully Trumbo plays well enough to be traded in July.

Elias may bring in a coach to change Davis' mind set and swing.  Get him to be able to hit to left field when the other team shifts.   Maybe less homers but a higher OBP would be the goal.

 

There's not a game plan to March to the World Series as you would like to believe. That is going to take a lot of luck on draft picks actually working out more than any other idea. 

 

Certainly not something that you can put a date on like it is a guarantee.

[NCRaven]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Maybe less homers but a higher OBP would be the goal.

 

How could Davis possibly hit less homers (16 in 470 ABs this year)?  If he does, he'll have even less value.

[nate22]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Mancini may or may not be shopped, but your assumptions about how Elias will operate are driving me a little nuts.   First of all, Luhnow was the GM of the Astros, not Elias, and there’s no telling whether Elias will do things exactly as Luhnow did.   Second, the 2017 Astros had 33-year old Brian McCann at C, 33-year old Yuli Gurriel at 1B, 35-year old Nori Aoki frequently in LF, 30-year old Josh Reddick in RF, 40-year old Carlos Beltran at DH and 32-year old Mike Fiers and 33-year old Charlie Morton in the rotation, and then they traded for 34-year old Justin Verlander.    I think it’s safe to say the Astros didn’t have some litmus test that avoided players who would be 30 or older when they were ready for a World Series run.   

I think it's great to get younger but we need to get better too. We don't have a number of high end youngsters in the minors and certainly don't have the pieces on the major league roster to acquire any. Filling the roster with young players, just because they are young players doesn't make this team better in the long run. In 2022, we'll just end up being an older version of what we are now. Elias has a tough job ahead of him.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Mancini may or may not be shopped, but your assumptions about how Elias will operate are driving me a little nuts.   First of all, Luhnow was the GM of the Astros, not Elias, and there’s no telling whether Elias will do things exactly as Luhnow did.   Second, the 2017 Astros had 33-year old Brian McCann at C, 33-year old Yuli Gurriel at 1B, 35-year old Nori Aoki frequently in LF, 30-year old Josh Reddick in RF, 40-year old Carlos Beltran at DH and 32-year old Mike Fiers and 33-year old Charlie Morton in the rotation, and then they traded for 34-year old Justin Verlander.    I think it’s safe to say the Astros didn’t have some litmus test that avoided players who would be 30 or older when they were ready for a World Series run.   

I think that is a solid post. 

[Redskins Rick]

45 minutes ago, weams said:

I think that is a solid post. 

I agree.

IMO. I dont see them adding any good veteran FA talent, until they show they have a decent core guys and that adding a few players will get them over the hump.

So not for this year or even next.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mancini may or may not be shopped, but your assumptions about how Elias will operate are driving me a little nuts.   First of all, Luhnow was the GM of the Astros, not Elias, and there’s no telling whether Elias will do things exactly as Luhnow did.   Second, the 2017 Astros had 33-year old Brian McCann at C, 33-year old Yuli Gurriel at 1B, 35-year old Nori Aoki frequently in LF, 30-year old Josh Reddick in RF, 40-year old Carlos Beltran at DH and 32-year old Mike Fiers and 33-year old Charlie Morton in the rotation, and then they traded for 34-year old Justin Verlander.    I think it’s safe to say the Astros didn’t have some litmus test that avoided players who would be 30 or older when they were ready for a World Series run.   

Yeah, let's pump the brakes on the reading of the tea leaves in re: to Elias. 

Wildcard I do love your posts typically, but sometimes you be like

[atomic]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

How could Davis possibly hit less homers (16 in 470 ABs this year)?  If he does, he'll have even less value.

If Davis could hit .250 I would take 10 home runs any day of the week over what he did last year.  And lets not kid ourselves.  Davis could not have any less value than he does now.  

[Ohfan67]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Stop disparaging the blind.

You guys just won't stop with the Chris Davis jokes. 

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

If Davis could hit .250 I would take 10 home runs any day of the week over what he did last year.  And lets not kid ourselves.  Davis could not have any less value than he does now.  

A first baseman with a .250 average (not a good measure of utility anyway) and 10 HRs is useless.  But, it’s a silly argument.  It’s 10 pounds of crap either way.

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

A first baseman with a .250 average (not a good measure of utility anyway) and 10 HRs is useless.  But, it’s a silly argument.  It’s 10 pounds of crap either way.

Rating a player on how many home runs they hit is why we ended up with the terrible contracts we have with Davis and Trumbo.  

Joe Mauer has played first base the last 5 years and has never hit more than 11 home runs in a season during that time and was a productive player.  In 2016 he hit 11 home runs and hit .261 and was good for 2.1 WAR . I wouldn't say he was useless at all. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, atomic said:

If Davis could hit .250 I would take 10 home runs any day of the week over what he did last year.  And lets not kid ourselves.  Davis could not have any less value than he does now.  

Don’t tempt the baseball gods.   

[Can_of_corn]

24 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You guys just won't stop with the Chris Davis jokes. 

If I don't laugh I might cry.

[TonySoprano]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Don’t tempt the baseball gods.   

 

[Tx Oriole]

20 hours ago, pastorfan said:

Agreed....I would think all of this spells the end for Davis. Davis is an analytics nightmare.

One can only hope so.

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mancini may or may not be shopped, but your assumptions about how Elias will operate are driving me a little nuts.   First of all, Luhnow was the GM of the Astros, not Elias, and there’s no telling whether Elias will do things exactly as Luhnow did.   Second, the 2017 Astros had 33-year old Brian McCann at C, 33-year old Yuli Gurriel at 1B, 35-year old Nori Aoki frequently in LF, 30-year old Josh Reddick in RF, 40-year old Carlos Beltran at DH and 32-year old Mike Fiers and 33-year old Charlie Morton in the rotation, and then they traded for 34-year old Justin Verlander.    I think it’s safe to say the Astros didn’t have some litmus test that avoided players who would be 30 or older when they were ready for a World Series run.   

I will bet those veterans were added after year 2.   Because the Astros payroll in year 2 was 26m.  The highest salary that year was 3m who was traded to the O's mid season.

What the Astros did the first two years was trade veterans for prospects to increase the number on young players they were developing.   That was the first step  for the Astros.  The O's hired Elias because of his experience with he Astros methods.   I certainly can't say for sure what Elias will do, but the history is there and Its a good bet that path is followed with the O's.  That's my bet.