2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[pastorfan]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will bet those veterans were added after year 2.   Because the Astros payroll in year 2 was 26m.  The highest salary that year was 3m who was traded to the O's mid season.

What the Astros did the first two years was trade veterans for prospects to increase the number on young players they were developing.   That was the first step  for the Astros.  The O's hired Elias because of his experience with he Astros methods.   I certainly can't say for sure what Elias will do, but the history is there and Its a good bet that path is followed with the O's.  That's my bet.

Yes, but at least we only gave up some minor league left-hander who probably will not amount to much. . . 

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

There's not a game plan to March to the World Series as you would like to believe. That is going to take a lot of luck on draft picks actually working out more than any other idea. 

 

Certainly not something that you can put a date on like it is a guarantee.

Nothing is guaranteed.  But I think Elias has to pick a date in the future when he thinks he can acquire enough players to make a playoff run.   The Astros plan from he time Luhnow and Elias were hired was to ignore all else and focus on winning a World Series,  no matter what that did to the teams in the first several years.     This all in the 2014  article that has been posted in this thread.

[now]

Just wanted to point out that article was written by the same SI writer who wrote this summer's more complete book, Astroball (and copies some of the passages from the original article). So you can read the short or long version, or better yet, both.

I too am super excited about the hire... But remember it's baseball, and many of the decisions will look bad in hindsight. At least we have these guys (incl. Mejdal too I hope) playing house odds for us, for a change!

[NCRaven]

9 hours ago, atomic said:

Rating a player on how many home runs they hit is why we ended up with the terrible contracts we have with Davis and Trumbo.  

 

9 hours ago, atomic said:

If Davis could hit .250 I would take 10 home runs any day of the week over what he did last year.  And lets not kid ourselves.  Davis could not have any less value than he does now.  

You’re the one that originally used batting average and home runs as a measure!!!  What a joke.

 I just countered your argument.

[wildcard]

We will get a glance between now and Nov 30th as to how close Elias will  lead the O's to the "Houston plan".

First the O's will choose who to protect from the Rule 5 draft.   Tate seems very likely to be protected.   Cervenka is a little more in question.   If the O's intend to non tender Joseph then they probably protect Cervenka.   Roch just wrote in his blog that the O's probably don't protect Cervanka.   I think the Houston plan approach would be to protect Cervanka and not  tender Joseph as a way to save money while getting younger.  

I agree with Roch that Susac will be taken off the 40 man roster.

Secondly the O's will decide on non tenders.   Beckham and Joseph are the biggest two in questions .  The Houston plan approach would be to save that money and non tender  both of them.  By non tendering these two plus Susac the O's have space to add Tate, Cervenka and a Rule 5 selection.

One more interesting point that has nothing to do with the Houston plan but more about how much space Elias wants on the roster for other additions is who else may be dropped.  I think Wright and Hart are vulnerable.   Both are late 20s relievers that have not established themselves in the majors and are out of options thus limiting their flexibility on the roster by needed to be on 25 man roster on opening day.

Just a few things to watch over the next few days to see how Elias handles his roster and how closely he sticks to the plan that was used in Houston's rebuild.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

We will get a glance between now and Nov 30th as to how close Elias will  lead the O's to the "Houston plan".

First the O's will choose who to protect from the Rule 5 draft.   Tate seems very likely to be protected.   Cervenka is a little more in question.   If the O's intend to non tender Joseph then they probably protect Cervenka.   Roch just wrote in his blog that the O's probably don't protect Cervanka.   I think the Houston plan approach would be to protect Cervanka and not  tender Joseph as a way to save money while getting younger.  

I agree with Roch that Susac will be taken off the 40 man roster.

Secondly the O's will decide on non tenders.   Beckham and Joseph are the biggest two in questions .  The Houston plan approach would be to save that money and non tender  both of them.  By non tendering these two plus Susac the O's have space to add Tate, Cervenka and a Rule 5 selection.

One more interesting point that has nothing to do with the Houston plan but more about how much space Elias wants on the roster for other additions is who else may be dropped.  I think Wright and Hart are vulnerable.   Both are late 20s relievers that have not established themselves in the majors and are out of options thus limiting their flexibility on the roster by needed to be on 25 man roster on opening day.

Just a few things to watch over the next few days to see how Elias handles his roster and how closely he sticks to the plan that was used in Houston's rebuild.

 

 

 

Who did Houston non-tender in 2011?

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who did Houston non-tender in 2011?

No one.  Looks like most of the heavy lifting was done in trades.  Do you think Beckham or Caleb have any value value considering their projected 2019 salaries?

October 3, 2011: C Robinson Cancel Granted Free Agency.

October 30, 2011: 2B Clint Barmes Granted Free Agency.

October 30, 2011: OF Jason Michaels Granted Free Agency.

November 2, 2011:  C JR Towles Granted Free Agency.

December 14, 2011: RP Mark Melancon Traded by the Houston Astros to the Boston Red Sox for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.

March 20, 2012: Catcher Humberto Quintero Traded by the Houston Astros with Jason Bourgeois to the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named later and Kevin Chapman. The Kansas City Royals sent D'Andre Toney (minors) (June 10, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

March 30, 2012:  RP Lance Pendleton Released by the Houston Astros.

May 16, 2012: SP Henry Sosa Released by the Houston Astros.

July 4, 2012: Carlos Lee Traded by the Houston Astros to the Miami Marlins for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen

July 20, 2012: JA Haps Traded by the Houston Astros with David Carpenter and Brandon Lyon to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the tr

July 21, 2012: SP Brett Myers Traded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Chicago White Sox for a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich (minors) and Blair Walters (minors). The Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski (August 3, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 24, 2012: SP Wandy Rodriguez Traded by the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Colton Cain (minors), Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens

July 29, 2012: 3B Chris Johnson Traded by the Houston Astros to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Bobby Borchering (minors) and Marc Krauss

August 10, 2012: RP Juan Abreu Selected off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays from the Houston Astros.

[Frobby]

Thanks for that rundown.  As to the October/November moves, they preceded Luhnow’s hiring on Dec. 7.    But he oversaw all the trades and other moves listed from there.  

[weams]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who did Houston non-tender in 2011?

Was that even Elias' job then? I thought he was a scout before. I mean heck. He was 28.

[Frobby]

Just now, weams said:

Was that even Elias' job then? I thought he was a scout before. I mean heck. He was 28.

No, not Elias’ job.   In fact, he wasn’t even hired by the non-tender date.    But since wildcard was positing these nontenders as consistent with the “Houston plan,” it seems logical to ask who they nontendered.   

[scOtt]

I've been talking about this article for 3 days. Couldn't remember who posted it. Thanks Wildcard!

[wildcard]

•  From MLBTR.com
•  
• This Tuesday, November 20th is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft in December. That doesn’t give new Orioles GM Mike Elias a ton of time to acclimate himself to the Orioles’ farm system. While other teams are finalizing the decisions they’ve had months to ponder, Elias will have to hit the ground running with deadline decisions to clean up his 40-man roster. It’s likely the Orioles will make at least one selection in December’s upcoming draft – which requires opening up a spot on the currently-full 40-man roster. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com takes a look at some of the players that could be on the chopping block. Veteran backstop Caleb Joseph is one DFA candidate, as is injury-prone catcher Andrew Susac. It should be noted, Elias has until November 30th to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, giving Elias some extra time to decide on a player like shortstop Tim Beckham. The urgency before Tuesday is in protecting anyone likely to be poached by another organization, such as right-hander Dillon Tate, catcher Martin Cervenka or left-handed pitcher Luis Gonzalez. Tate is the likeliest of the bunch to be protected,
• as the Orioles probably won’t want to risk losing the 24-year-old just a few months after acquiring him from the Yankees in the Zach Britton trade.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/quick-hits-stroman-goldschmidt-orioles-mariners.html

 

[weams]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, not Elias’ job.   In fact, he wasn’t even hired by the non-tender date.    But since wildcard was positing these nontenders as consistent with the “Houston plan,” it seems logical to ask who they nontendered.   

He's a great poster, but I think this all is a bit out there. I don't think we can predict much other than a low payroll. 

[scOtt]

On 11/14/2018 at 3:51 PM, bpilktree67 said:

They built their team on prospects in the field and used that to acquire the pitchers in trades for the most part.  Even the pitchers they drafted early on failed to make any impact to the club.  I  love that they already have some major connections in the international market which will boost are ability to sign players in the future as they have been watching guys down there for sure for a few years that will be eligible this season and maybe a few guys that have flown under the radar and not signed yet. 

Would the AngelBros^* let us trade for a Verlander and his big salary? Since he only plays every 5th day and all.....

 

 

 

^*AngleBros. I HATE that nickname. Too much to type and sounds 5t00p1d.We need a new one. JLA? John Louis Angelos?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Would the AngelBros^* let us trade for a Verlander and his big salary? Since he only plays every 5th day and all.....

 

 

 

^*AngleBros. I HATE that nickname. Too much to type and sounds 5t00p1d.We need a new one. JLA? John Louis Angelos?

I've been pushing for the Brothers Angelos.