Orioles select SS Richie Martin with 1st pick of Rule 5 Draft

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, bobmc said:

If someone would back you, that's the way you would go for sure!  However, Elias has said that even though you make mistakes (former #1 pick that failed thus far), you stay the course and it all evens out if you continue the "process".  I guess ME and Sig will stay the course for now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the process for most things, I understand one person or a couple people's eyes are inferior to a assessment system (if the input data is of sufficient quantity and quality).

I'm just saying for the Rule 5 in particular, the talent pool is limited enough and the risk is low enough that it'd make sense to go against the grain and try and find inputs to the decision making process that other teams don't use, even if those inputs aren't robust enough to warrant inclusion in a draft model or free agent model. 

[weams]

21 minutes ago, interloper said:

The most interesting pick has to be the Jays grabbing that 18 year old pitcher who was available due to a loophole of some sort. If that somehow works for them (I can't see how it will, really), it's an incredible steal.

Quote

John Jay trade.

for

Elvis Luciano and Gabe Speier.

 

“We want to get pitching into the system,” Royals assistant general manager Scott Sharp said.

Luciano, an 18-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic, will go to rookie-level Burlington when the season commences. Speier, a 23-year-old lefty who's been packaged in three trades for a major-leaguer since being selected in the 19th round of the 2013 draft by the Red Sox, was assigned to Class AA Northwest Arkansas.

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article212713569.html

 

[Ruzious]

15 hours ago, hoosiers said:

And it appears it will be shored up in a very cheap manner by plucking two respectable prospects who have each played a full season in AA.  We'll see how it works out.  I think you have to give our GM the benefit of the doubt in terms of strategy.  These are not failed prospects, but guys with quality defense and late blooming bats.

I think adding Martin, Jackson and Ruiz represents a decent uptick in organizational talent this week.

They're not failed prospects, but they're not good prospects.  None of them sound like they're going to be legit starters in the majors.  But they all have hit some in the minors and have talent defensively, so perhaps there is more reason for hope.  

[jtschrei]

I think Ryan Flaherty is the ceiling of what you're going to get in the Rule V draft. I like the picks. We need good infielders. Hopefully, these guys can get on base at a decent clip and add some value. If not, there's usually some AAAA guys like Paul Janish looking for jobs. 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, jtschrei said:

I think Ryan Flaherty is the ceiling of what you're going to get in the Rule V draft. I like the picks. We need good infielders. Hopefully, these guys can get on base at a decent clip and add some value. If not, there's usually some AAAA guys like Paul Janish looking for jobs. 

i know some on OH didn't like Flaherty. I think he deserves a bit more credit than some do, he played a good role for 5 years as bench and super utility guy and even saw playoff duty full time, and wasn't terrible.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

I think Ryan Flaherty is the ceiling of what you're going to get in the Rule V draft. I like the picks. We need good infielders. Hopefully, these guys can get on base at a decent clip and add some value. If not, there's usually some AAAA guys like Paul Janish looking for jobs. 

It's not the ceiling of what you get in the rule 5 draft.

Brad Keller, Odubel Herrera are examples of the ceiling of the rule 5 draft. Yeah, it's uncommon, but that's why it's the ceiling.

Also, Jeff McNeil (2.7 fWAR), Max Muncy (5.2 fWAR), Franmil Reyes (1.2 fWAR in 87 games) + Willians Astudillo and Pablo Reyes (strong debuts) among others were Rule 5 eligible last year.

[wildbillhiccup]

I already hate this pick because I've been subconsciously humming "Livin' La Vida Loca" for the past 24 hours. 

[section18]

Was this the worst Rule5 Draft ?   Only 14 players chosen in round 1. Has there been one with less than 14 chosen?

Someone on another site says it's because teams have scouted/evaluated their players so well there are few mistakes left out there to  lose. There were a lot more than 14 evaluated on this site and other sites prior to the draft. It seems strange only 14 were chosen. Luke may have already responded to this subject earlier.

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, section18 said:

Was this the worst Rule5 Draft ?   Only 14 players chosen in round 1. Has there been one with less than 14 chosen?

Someone on another site says it's because teams have scouted/evaluated their players so well there are few mistakes left out there to  lose. There were a lot more than 14 evaluated on this site and other sites prior to the draft. It seems strange only 14 were chosen. Luke may have already responded to this subject earlier.

 

There have been other drafts where fewer than 14 were chosen. For example, in 2013, only 9 were chosen.   Complete list of prior Rule 5 drafts here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, section18 said:

Was this the worst Rule5 Draft ?   Only 14 players chosen in round 1. Has there been one with less than 14 chosen?

Someone on another site says it's because teams have scouted/evaluated their players so well there are few mistakes left out there to  lose. There were a lot more than 14 evaluated on this site and other sites prior to the draft. It seems strange only 14 were chosen. Luke may have already responded to this subject earlier.

I'd say 10 teams probably have a strong enough 25 man roster that it doesn't make sense to add anyone. Others might see a slight upgrade to their 25 man, but the cost of roster flexibility isn't worth the minor upgrade.

The reason why so many players are evaluated is because the players are so similar in quality. It's not like comparing Vlad Jr with Ryan Mountcastle, everyone with any sense would pick Vlad Jr. It's comparing about 100 or so players who for the most part are on the same tier. That's why Baseball America had 90 names and still didn't have 5 of the players picked listed. I actually asked JJ Cooper why he didn't have Nick Green and he said there were 3 or 4 Yankees he liked better.  

[section18]

Great feedback Frobby and Luke-OH.

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

It's not the ceiling of what you get in the rule 5 draft.

Brad Keller, Odubel Herrera are examples of the ceiling of the rule 5 draft. Yeah, it's uncommon, but that's why it's the ceiling.

Also, Jeff McNeil (2.7 fWAR), Max Muncy (5.2 fWAR), Franmil Reyes (1.2 fWAR in 87 games) + Willians Astudillo and Pablo Reyes (strong debuts) among others were Rule 5 eligible last year.

It is for the Orioles!!!! Only half joking. I think you have to go all the way back to Jay Gibbons to find a Rule 5 pick that generated positive WAR greater than 1 for the Orioles (in their career as an Oriole). Over the years the Orioles selected a couple of players that generated positive WAR later for other teams (e.g., they picked Jose Bautista, but didn't hold onto him), but most of their picks generated zero WAR (the Alfredo Simon's of the world) or even negative WAR (e.g., T.J. McFarland) for the Orioles. At least Joey's  WAR was positive (0.8). 

 

The cost of keeping someone on the roster versus the probability that the player will ever be productive for the selecting team is really, really low. You noted some exceptions, but they are real exceptions and some of the ones you listed are relatively small sample sizes (most flavors of WAR seem to really overestimate value with relatively low sample sizes). The Orioles certainly have a pretty terrible track record with the Rule 5. Hopefully Elias does better, but the Rule 5 is what it is. 

[Luke-OH]

36 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

It is for the Orioles!!!! Only half joking. I think you have to go all the way back to Jay Gibbons to find a Rule 5 pick that generated positive WAR greater than 1 for the Orioles (in their career as an Oriole). Over the years the Orioles selected a couple of players that generated positive WAR later for other teams (e.g., they picked Jose Bautista, but didn't hold onto him), but most of their picks generated zero WAR (the Alfredo Simon's of the world) or even negative WAR (e.g., T.J. McFarland) for the Orioles. At least Joey's  WAR was positive (0.8). 

 

The cost of keeping someone on the roster versus the probability that the player will ever be productive for the selecting team is really, really low. You noted some exceptions, but they are real exceptions and some of the ones you listed are relatively small sample sizes (most flavors of WAR seem to really overestimate value with relatively low sample sizes). The Orioles certainly have a pretty terrible track record with the Rule 5. Hopefully Elias does better, but the Rule 5 is what it is. 

Basically, you shouldn't use the Rule 5 draft if you are trying to compete. The Orioles did because they were payroll limited and had major holes even in their competitive run. If you are rebuilding though, there is no reason not to use the Rule 5 draft. 

[jsbearr]

To clarify what a data driven process means is using what you know, quantitatively and qualitatively, to make decisions.  To understand the limitations of your data and your process.  To make changes as you logically and empirically become aware of those issues.

A moment of convergence in process and a thinning out of positive outcomes will bring about change.  Some organizations may be slower than others to incorporate that change.  Once that change happens, it will likely open up opportunity elsewhere.

In other words, do not think of this current front office as static and ruled by algorithms.  It is organic and dynamic.  It recognizes that new areas of success must always be searched out and accounted for.  And, yes, it will miss out on opportunity...just like any other approach, but all in generally different ways.

Otherwise, it will all boil down to draft selection and money.  The Orioles cannot afford to do that.  The Astros could not afford to do that.  The Cardinals could not afford to do that.

[OFFNY]

o

 

(vs. RANGERS, 6/05)

 

NUMBER 2

 

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

RICHARD ALLEN MARTIN

 

o