Orioles select SS Richie Martin with 1st pick of Rule 5 Draft

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Natty said:

Plus...He is a very fast baserunner. 

Minus...He cant even hit ,200, and is only an average fielder despite all the hoopla about him being very good with a glove at SS. 

I think if he was hitting better we would not even notice the average-ness at SS. I think we would say he's holding his own playing SS in the major leagues. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think if he was hitting better we would not even notice the average-ness at SS. I think we would say he's holding his own playing SS in the major leagues. 

Fair enough.    But I had expected him to be a little better defensively based on the scouting reports.   I thought he’d be average to slightly above for a big league starting SS. Instead, he’s a bit below average, and perhaps he’ll improve to average with more big league experience.   But he’s not going to make anyone forget JJ Hardy.    

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fair enough.    But I had expected him to be a little better defensively based on the scouting reports.   I thought he’d be average to slightly above for a big league starting SS. Instead, he’s a bit below average, and perhaps he’ll improve to average with more big league experience.   But he’s not going to make anyone forget JJ Hardy.    

The metrics have him as pretty terrible.  SSS, yes.  Low confidence numbers, sure.  I'd like to see what his Statcast or other tracking defensive numbers say.

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

I don’t see what you could possibly identify in him that would make you take him in the rule 5. He’s not good at anything. 

A guy with a 60 defense from the scouting reports who OPS'd .800 in AA last year.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

His defense is replaceable & his bat is garbage. 

You're that confident that 130 PAs after making the jump straight from AA is a true read on his long-term ability?

[atomic]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

A guy with a 60 defense from the scouting reports who OPS'd .800 in AA last year.

Luke OH was saying he wouldn't hit in the majors before we picked him. Something about his ground ball rate and lack of power.

[interloper]

28 minutes ago, atomic said:

Luke OH was saying he wouldn't hit in the majors before we picked him. Something about his ground ball rate and lack of power.

Yeah it seems Luke kind of nailed this one. I had hope maybe they'd change his swing a little more, although they have definitely changed it some. 

I'm not exactly ready to cast him off entirely though. I've seen some better ABs from him recently that either suggest he's starting to find it OR it's just a decent stretch. 

In his last 10 games over 35 AB, he's batting .228 with a .428 SLG (2 home runs, 2 doubles) and only 8 Ks. That's not GOOD or anything, but it's better than his overall line. 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah it seems Luke kind of nailed this one. I had hope maybe they'd change his swing a little more, although they have definitely changed it some. 

I'm not exactly ready to cast him off entirely though. I've seen some better ABs from him recently that either suggest he's starting to find it OR it's just a decent stretch. 

In his last 10 games over 35 AB, he's batting .228 with a .428 SLG (2 home runs, 2 doubles) and only 8 Ks. That's not GOOD or anything, but it's better than his overall line. 

Luke said players who profile like him (2:1 GB:FB) are rare in the majors.  I have to think part of the plan here was to get him to change his swing.  If that's true you have to give him more than spring training and 130 PAs to see if it's going to work.  2019 is all about the long game.  The only way a .550 OPS matters right now is if the team is very confident that's where he's going to stay.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Luke said players who profile like him (2:1 GB:FB) are rare in the majors.  I have to think part of the plan here was to get him to change his swing.  If that's true you have to give him more than spring training and 130 PAs to see if it's going to work.  2019 is all about the long game.  The only way a .550 OPS matters right now is if the team is very confident that's where he's going to stay.

Yeah I absolutely agree. There's no reason to cut bait on him just yet unless Elias really feels like he's in some kind of crazy roster crunch. Which, if it comes to that, is bad news for several reasons.

What I'm seeing mostly is that Martin is making better contact. He was striking out a ton early on but seems to have a better foundation at the plate right now to where he's not immediately so overmatched. So I kind of want to see where that goes. Can he just start getting on base a little more? He's a game-changing runner out there (if he can ever keep his helmet on his head). And it seems to me he should be able to slap a few more double around as he gets more comfortable. 

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I absolutely agree. There's no reason to cut bait on him just yet unless Elias really feels like he's in some kind of crazy roster crunch. Which, if it comes to that, is bad news for several reasons.

What I'm seeing mostly is that Martin is making better contact. He was striking out a ton early on but seems to have a better foundation at the plate right now to where he's not immediately so overmatched. So I kind of want to see where that goes. Can he just start getting on base a little more? He's a game-changing runner out there (if he can ever keep his helmet on his head). And it seems to me he should be able to slap a few more double around as he gets more comfortable. 

I'd like to see him in AAA next year so he could get a little development help. It's awful tough to develop a hitter at the major league level. At 24, he's still just a kid.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd like to see him in AAA next year so he could get a little development help. It's awful tough to develop a hitter at the major league level. At 24, he's still just a kid.

Yeah. I mean just look at Stewart. Absolutely murdering at AAA. Dominating. Comes up and immediately humbled in his first 20-some ABs. Tiny sample, but this ain't easy! 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The metrics have him as pretty terrible.  SSS, yes.  Low confidence numbers, sure.  I'd like to see what his Statcast or other tracking defensive numbers say.

I don’t think Statcast does infielders, at least in the stats made public.   

[DrungoHazewood]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Statcast does infielders, at least in the stats made public.   

Right, it's only outfielders and catchers from what I can find. But there has to be some kind of tracking done on infielders?  If not, why not?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd like to see him in AAA next year so he could get a little development help. It's awful tough to develop a hitter at the major league level. At 24, he's still just a kid.

If he's in AAA at 25, then back to the majors at 26... he's done.  The average player peaks at 27, but is 90% of the way there at 25, 26.  Sure,  individual variation, blah, blah....  That's my issue with most Rule 5ers: if the plan is to send you to AAA after you've spent a year OPSing .550 in the majors you're best hope is to be a utility guy or something.  Real prospects are almost never 25 or 26 in AAA, not without some weird backstory.

[mdbdotcom]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If he's in AAA at 25, then back to the majors at 26... he's done.  The average player peaks at 27, but is 90% of the way there at 25, 26.  Sure,  individual variation, blah, blah....  That's my issue with most Rule 5ers: if the plan is to send you to AAA after you've spent a year OPSing .550 in the majors you're best hope is to be a utility guy or something.  Real prospects are almost never 25 or 26 in AAA, not without some weird backstory.

I don't think they picked him to send him down, but that could be where we are now. He could be a utility guy or minor league depth to be called up in case of injury. He could play pro ball for a while in either of those roles.