House released! (Headed To Boston?)

[clapdiddy]

All this talk of House's departure made me realize something very significant.

During the recent glory years of Orioles baseball (1996 - 1997), we had a guy behind the plate who couldn't throw out my grandmother in her walker while he was catching. He was a good catcher and called a good game, but Mr. Hoiles was known more for his bat than anything else. And that was on a team that probably could've afforded a good "catch and throw" guy with all of the talent it had.

So...why is this team so enamored with having Paul Bako here again?

[El Gordo]

I think he had like 2-3 balls hit to him the first game he played there.

If you think you can determine him at third based on that, you are crazy.

All the defensive stats say he is slightly below average at third.

"All defensive stats" are meaningless, they have yet to come up with a solid measure of defense. It's in the eye of the beholder and to my eye Huff is a defensive liability wherever he plays.

[DrungoHazewood]

"All defensive stats" are meaningless, they have yet to come up with a solid measure of defense. It's in the eye of the beholder and to my eye Huff is a defensive liability wherever he plays.

Quantify "liability." Or if all defense is, like you say, in the eye of the beholder and unquantifiable, give it a swag.

Because when you limit your analysis to "good, decent, and liability", you end up deciding that a decent fielding catcher is worth as much as a liability even when their offense is separated by a great, gaping chasm.

When you refuse to even try to quantify defense it becomes a giant BS dump, where you can justify anything at all by just saying it looks good to you. We know House is 30 or 40 or more runs better than Bako on offense per season. But when you're just eyeballing it on defense there's nothing stopping you from inventing 30 or 40 runs worth of defense to make up for it.

[wildcard]

I never questioned who the better third baseman was. I answered how I would get House in the line-up (or Knott if you prefer). I would rather have House at DH and Huff at 3b instead of Huff at DH and Gomez at 3b. I value the advantages we'll have on offense over what we gain on defense.

You have Millar and Huff as mostly everyday players. Fine. And you can't find a way to get House in the line-up 2 or 3 times a week? Huff and Millar can't take 1 or 2 days off a week? Gibbons and Payton can't platoon in LF? Payton can't platoon with Patterson in CF?

I mean, I'm not even sure what you're arguing. Are you arguing for Knott over House? If so, thats fine. But to tell me Bynum or Fahey have more value over Knott is ridiculous. You wonder how House would get into the game, well there is an obvious need on this team and he (or Knott) could fill it pretty well. Fahey has no real purpose on this team (though he might now that Bynum is injured).

I think we are agreeing. The main point that I think you are stating is that (once Melvin is healthy) there is no need for Gomez, Bynum and Fahey on the same team. I agree. Now that Bynum is on the DL that will take care of its self for a while.

After the break, Luis Hernandez should go back to Norfolk and Knott should be brought up. He should get his at bats against lefties in left field.

As far as House goes, I have to trust the O's management that he is not a major league catcher. That makes him a DH/PH in the majors. With Millar, Huff and Gibbons getting most of the at bats at DH that means he was not likely see time at DH. If Knott can play a little leftfield he is a better choice to help the O's offensively then House, just because of the position he plays.

To tell you the truth the need for a righthanded bat that can play some leftfield in why I have said the O's could have picked up Ryan Spilborghs for next to nothing and had a better fielding leftfield than Knott.

[Sports Guy]

I think we are agreeing. The main point that I think you are stating is that (once Melvin is healthy) there is no need for Gomez, Bynum and Fahey on the same team. I agree. Now that Bynum is on the DL that will take care of its self for a while.

After the break, Luis Hernandez should go back to Norfolk and Knott should be brought up. He should get his at bats against lefties in left field.

As far as House goes, I have to trust the O's management that he is not a major league catcher. That makes him a DH/PH in the majors. With Millar, Huff and Gibbons getting most of the at bats at DH that means he was not likely see time at DH. If Knott can play a little leftfield he is a better choice to help the O's offensively then House, just because of the position he plays.

To tell you the truth the need for a righthanded bat that can play some leftfield in why I have said the O's could have picked up Ryan Spilborghs for next to nothing and had a better fielding leftfield than Knott.

Why would you ever trust O's management?

[wildcard]

Why would you ever trust O's management?

Because they have actually seen House catch. I have not.

[Ruzious]

Even if they couldn't see him being a catcher against teams that can run, it's inconceivable to me how the O's organization couldn't find a spot for him on the major league roster. Why did they go out and sign him in the first place? If it was just to improve the Ottawa team... Their handling of his situation is really depressing. House deserved better, and us O's fans deserved better.

[Moose Milligan]

Because they have actually seen House catch. I have not.

But SG's larger point, which I agree with...is how can you trust an organization thats been so poorly managed over the years and made bad decision after bad decision.

If we were a winning team, year in, year out, and a well run organization, I wouldn't question it and I don't think SG would either.

But we're not. So I think it's perfectly fine to question and judge what they do and how they do it.

[wildcard]

Even if they couldn't see him being a catcher against teams that can run, it's inconceivable to me how the O's organization couldn't find a spot for him on the major league roster. Why did they go out and sign him in the first place? If it was just to improve the Ottawa team... Their handling of his situation is really depressing. House deserved better, and us O's fans deserved better.

The O's acquired House to take a close look at him. Their evaluation showed he had limits that do not project him as a major league catcher.

I guess I am not as disappointed in this move as others are.

[Sports Guy]

The O's acquired House to take a close look at him. Their evaluation showed he had limits that do not project him as a major league catcher.

I guess I am not as disappointed in this move as others are.

No, they don't think he has a good arm and that is only one part of the game for a catcher.

What the hell has Bako done to justify that the Orioles evaluated him correctly?

He is terrible.

[now]

Well, there is absolutely no chance that House could allow enough additional runs via actual physical mistakes to wipe out the additional runs he would create on offense. From a strictly accounting standpoint of House himself, it just isn't possible.

However, there is another component of the game that I can't quantify but matters none-the-less. There is an effect that can happen to a team whenever one area of a team is extremely poor. That poor facet of the game can bleed through into other player's performances and create sub-par results in other facets of the game. Mentally, players sub-consciously performly more poorly due to the mental anguish (lol, ?) created by the constant strain created by this other poor facet. It sounds stupid when I describe it, but it happens and it isn't rare.

Some examples:

1) Typically, a terrible bullpen is the easiest way to create this "crossover" effect. Give up enough games in the late innings and the starters will begin pitching worse than they otherwise would and the hitters will begin hitting worse than they otherwise would. There becomes a "what's the point" mentality among these other areas. This has happened several times in the past with the Orioles. I think it happened to a degree last season. I think it has happened with the Devil Rays over the past 20 games.

2) Sometimes an overwhelmed manager can create this effect. Even if you don't buy this year's Orioles, you had to believe this effect was real with Larry Dierker in Houston a few years ago and the old guy who took over the Marlins several years ago. Both times, teams that were languishing in the standings for over half a year suddenly won like 3/4 of their games over a significant period to vault themselves into the play-offs despite very few actual changes to the playing personnel.

I don't know how to quantify these things, but I know they exist. I've seen them first hand when I played the game. Maybe you can help to identify and quantify this effect.

I don't know if House was that bad at defense or not. Perhaps the Orioles just want to create a cultural atmosphere where poor and/or lackadaisical defense isn't tolerated and they feel promoting him would condone poor defense. I don't know. I don't agree with the handling of House from my viewpoint. Bako has been so bad that I would have liked to see him get a chance, but I'm not going to go so far as to rip the Orioles for not promoting a guy that I've only watched a few times in Spring Training (especially when I wasn't impressed at all).

Again, if we credit them for being smart enough to pursue and sign these guys (include Knott/Dubois) in the first place, why would we assume they are too stupid to evaluate them effectively? BTW, everything I've seen indicates that these guys haven't been promoted because of our minor league evaluators like Stockstill, Allenson, etc.... so when we criticize the decisions made re: these players, we shouldn't be criticizing the FO or manager if we're placing the "blame" in the right place.

You make a good point about subjective effects, which I agree with in principle (like with the blown saves). However, I'm not sure how well it applies here. For one thing, if it applies with catcher fielding, it can and should apply even moreso to the disgraceful spectacle of Bako, Castillo, Fahey, Gibbons going 1 for 5 night after night, stranding runners, striking out with the bases loaded, etc. while we're losing all those close low-scoring games. For another thing, it didn't seem to hurt the morale of the '96-'97 playoff team to have Hoiles out there with his notoriously weak arm.

[ChaosLex]

I can easily see House drilling one over the Monster in Fenway off Cabrera sometime this September. Fenway goes nuts, for it helps clinch the pennant and keep the MFY's out of the race.

Sadly enough, I can see something like that happeneing.

Oh well. At least it would keep the Yankees out of the playoffs.

[El Gordo]

Because they have actually seen House catch. I have not.

Apparantly you don't have to see him catch you just have to look at his stats.

[Sports Guy]

Apparantly you don't have to see him catch you just have to look at his stats.

Or you could watch him for 8 plays and think you have a clue as to what you are talking about.

[Guest rochester]

A. Well, there is absolutely no chance that House could allow enough additional runs via actual physical mistakes to wipe out the additional runs he would create on offense. From a strictly accounting standpoint of House himself, it just isn't possible.

<P>

B. However, there is another component of the game that I can't quantify but matters none-the-less. There is an effect that can happen to a team whenever one area of a team is extremely poor. That poor facet of the game can bleed through into other player's performances and create sub-par results in other facets of the game. Mentally, players sub-consciously performly more poorly due to the mental anguish (lol, ?) created by the constant strain created by this other poor facet. It sounds stupid when I describe it, but it happens and it isn't rare.

<P>

Some examples:

C . Sometimes an overwhelmed manager can create this effect. Even if you don't buy this year's Orioles, you had to believe this effect was real with Larry Dierker in Houston a few years ago and the old guy who took over the Marlins several years ago. Both times, teams that were languishing in the standings for over half a year suddenly won like 3/4 of their games over a significant period to vault themselves into the play-offs despite very few actual changes to the playing personnel.

<P>

D. I don't know how to quantify these things, but I know they exist. I've seen them first hand when I played the game. Maybe you can help to identify and quantify this effect.

E. I don't know if House was that bad at defense or not. Perhaps the Orioles just want to create a cultural atmosphere where poor and/or lackadaisical defense isn't tolerated and they feel promoting him would condone poor defense. I don't know. I don't agree with the handling of House from my viewpoint. Bako has been so bad that I would have liked to see him get a chance, but I'm not going to go so far as to rip the Orioles for not promoting a guy that I've only watched a few times in Spring Training (especially when I wasn't impressed at all).

A. I remember a while back (in ST) when I was under the impression that a C without an arm can make a big difference. I was recalling Javy last year when someone's 85 yr old grandma stole 2nd and 3rd on consecutive pitches...anyway Drungo had some numbers that showed me that this "assumption" or concern was unfounded...

B. Without a doubt, especially when the guy ahead of you is not as good, hurting the club AND making $900K. Bako does not belong in the majors, period!

C. Excellent point - ok, 1,2,3 "Sammy Perlozzo!"

D. Vatech...I fully understand that stats may help in some areas but I believe they are relied on too much. I could not agree more that there are many, MANY things that are not quantifiable...but they happen. For example, I remember that Gibbons was batting (during SP) because he was (i.e.) 5 for 12 or something against the pitcher...well, how dumb is that? He may have been 5-12 but...that was when he was an average ML player.

E. Ok with the defense thought...but one may think that it is more valuable to give these guys (House, Knott, Dubois, etc.) at least a chance for many reasons besides they may be better than what we have now..

For one..would you sign a MiL contract this winter with Baltimore when history dictates that you most likely will not get the call? It is bad enough that we have probs with FAs but now it may generate more... this is not being forward thinking, which has been the problem with the management (FO and >) for the past 10 years...and yes I can add Gillick to it.. although his "win now" attitude was great at the time it was the beginning of the farm system downfall....