Over/under: Dylan Bundy wins 12 games?

[Frobby]

Steve Melewski posted a bunch of questions today, including over/under on several propositions.   The one that intrigued me was Dylan Bundy winning 12 games.    He won 13 in 2017, 8 last year.    I expect him to pitch better this year but his offensive support should be worse than in 2017.    What say you?

Some of Melewski’s other over/unders were Davis hitting .240 or hitting 25 homers.    I don’t think those polls would be close.    

[Ohfan67]

I sure hope he pitches a lot better, but even if he does wins will be relatively rare. I voted under. 

[TonySoprano]

Under, barely.  My SWAG is 11.

A more interesting question is who will lead the 2019 team in wins?

 

[thezeroes]

I voted under for the reason that there will be games he does not qualify for the win because he was pulled early because of pitch count.

[wildcard]

In order to win the O's have to have an offense.  Bundy could pitch well and still not reach 10 wins.

[Moose Milligan]

Under, not really close.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Under, not really close.  

What if he gets traded to a good team?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

What if he gets traded to a good team?

What if?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What if he gets traded to a good team?

Than he will have a better chance of winning 12 or more.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I think he will get over 12 wins. Some might be shootouts, some might be super low scoring. But I think he will get over 12.

[Il BuonO]

Pfft, wins.

[MMussina35]

Under. They make him a swing guy to maximize his ability before season ends. Using him this way his value explodes and he’s traded for a better return than KG. 

[Cumberbundy]

10 minutes ago, MMussina35 said:

 Using him this way his value explodes and he’s traded 

[Cumberbundy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

What if?

[Spy Fox]

10 and I would have a hard time picking. 12? Easy under bet I think. 

I looked at all of the team's under-70-win seasons since 2000. Because we know there's almost no way this team is getting above the 60s. 

Eight seasons, two 12 game winners. Rodrigo Lopez 15 W, 3.57 ERA in 2002 and Erik Bedard 13 W, 3.16 ERA in 2007. If you lower the threshold to 10 wins, Jeremy Guthrie made the cut three times, and once each for Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Jason Johnson. 

Even if Bundy pitches better, I just don't think this team would be good enough to pick over 12 wins for anyone who isn't an ace type.