Hyde: "I won't manage to the save stat"

[interloper]

We shall see! Buck also said this, although I tend to believe Hyde more just because he's younger and probably gets it. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

We shall see! Buck also said this, although I tend to believe Hyde more just because he's younger and probably gets it. 

Good idea since the O's won't be having many save chances.

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

We shall see! Buck also said this, although I tend to believe Hyde more just because he's younger and probably gets it. 

As long as he stays away from making an ad for MASN stating such.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

As long as he stays away from making an ad for MASN stating such.

It's supremely ironic that it was managing to the save stat that resulted in the worst managerial decision of Showalter's career.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's supremely ironic that it was managing to the save stat that resulted in the worst managerial decision of Showalter's career.

Unless you count coming back for the 2018 season.

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Unless you count coming back for the 2018 season.

He'd probably like to take that one back considering it single-handedly brought his record into the red.

[now]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's supremely ironic that it was managing to the save stat that resulted in the worst managerial decision of Showalter's career.

Mistake or not... I would argue it wasn't about the stat, but aiming for the "higher leverage" situation; i.e., waiting for a lead to protect.

[oriole]

One of the only things I did not like about Bucks tenure was that he exactly managed by the save stat despite being on record saying he wouldn’t. If you’re going to do it then go ahead but don’t say otherwise. I could be misremembering but it seems to me he was consistent in this aspect. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, now said:

I would argue it wasn't about the stat, but aiming for the "higher leverage" situation; i.e., waiting for a lead to protect.

It don't get much higher leverage than runners in scoring position in extra innings.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, now said:

I would argue it wasn't about the stat, but aiming for the "higher leverage" situation; i.e., waiting for a lead to protect.

Maybe. IMO there is no higher leverage than tied on the road in extra innings in the playoffs. You play your best guys to extend the game at any cost. You figure out protecting a lead when you have one.

[Redskins Rick]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's supremely ironic that it was managing to the save stat that resulted in the worst managerial decision of Showalter's career.

I dont think he was managing for the save, I think he was trying to manage for a win.

It blewup on him, thats for sure.

Hindsight is always 20-20

[LookinUp]

I always wonder how they quantify leverage. I'm sure this is easily researchable with a google search, but there are any number of times in a game when the opposition is threatening to score. What are the differentiators?

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I always wonder how they quantify leverage. I'm sure this is easily researchable with a google search, but there are any number of times in a game when the opposition is threatening to score. What are the differentiators?

 

The score, how late it is in the game.

Stuff like that.

If you are already down by six it isn't high leverage even if the opposition has the bases loaded and no one out.

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good idea since the O's won't be having many save chances.

It's easier to not manage to the save rule when your presumptive closer was 47th of 59 pitchers in ERA+ (min 5 saves).  Today's Oriole closer will be the guy who didn't allow four runs in 2/3rds of an inning yesterday.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I always wonder how they quantify leverage. I'm sure this is easily researchable with a google search, but there are any number of times in a game when the opposition is threatening to score. What are the differentiators?

Using base/out/run matrices based on historical game data, and win probabilities.  So they figure out how many runs typically score in each inning/out/base situation, and how often you win in each inning/run differential situation.  From there you can give credit or blame to players or teams for deviations from that, and figure out which situations are most or least important.

Made up example... going to the ninth up three runs, nobody on, you win 97% of the time.  Then you just have to assign numbers to high/medium/low leverage, if you want.  97% is pretty low leverage.