Luke’s Draft Musings

[Spl51]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

A couple potential day one arms who have caught my attention lately.

Adam Lukas - his stats aren't matching up to the stuff yet, but this is a WOW arm. It's an easy mid-90s that jumps out of his hand, their is also a quality slider and a workable changeup.

Tony Locey - D1 baseball tabbed him as a 7th round pick in their preseason rankings, but after watching a couple of his starts, it's hard to imagine him making it past the 2nd round. He's a huge guy and he throws hard, averaging 95-96 with an average breaking ball and a split change that is inconsistent but flashes out pitch potential. He has a couple mechanical issues that affect his strike-throwing ability, but it's at least a late inning arm. 

Isaiah Campbell - replaced Blaine Knight as Arkansas's Friday night starter, he's got similar competitive fire and he been nails thus far. His velocity has tick up, t96 on occasion. He's not as projectable as Knight and doesn't have the same type of high spin breaking ball but a quality arsenal with a CT, CB, CH and better present command than Knight had. 

HS guy

Josh Wolf - was topping out at 91-92 last summer, has been holding 95+, t98 this spring. 

Thoughts on pick 41 yet or is it too early? I really wish Seth Johnson was there for us there, but I doubt it. I also think the two two sport athletes Hampton and Ealy  would be great  picks if you are looking for high ceiling projects.

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Thoughts on pick 41 yet or is it too early? I really wish Seth Johnson was there for us there, but I doubt it. I also think the two two sport athletes Hampton and Ealy  would be great  picks if you are looking for high ceiling projects.

I'm much higher on Hampton than Ealy. Hampton is a baseball player who is an elite athlete, Ealy is an athlete who happens to play baseball. Ealy's swing needs a ton of work.

Hampton wound be a good get at 41 IMO, but I'd imagine if he gets there he'd be a big overslot. 

On the HS side, Goss is a guy I really like, projection arm. Kyren Paris is also interesting, young, athletic SS.

I'm selfishly hoping Johnson struggles enough to slip to 41, he really is still learning to pitch, it's obvious watching him. He throws his fastball like it's a sinker, painting the bottom of the zone, which lets guys get a better look at it. It's a straight, backspin pitch, it needs to be up in the top 1/3 of the zone. He also doesn't trust his offspeed stuff enough, he tries to nibble, when in reality, it's good enough to throw over the plate and not get hit. Plus college hitters are 100% gearing up for his fastball. 

[Luke-OH]

If by some minor miracle Hunter Bishop, Nick Lodolo, or George Kirby are there at 41, I'd be very happy with any of them. 

[Luke-OH]

Under the Radar Favorite #2

Dante Biasi - LHP - 6'0" 205lb - Penn State

Biasi was drafted out of HS by the Cubs even though he had TJS his senior year of HS. He didn't sign, took a medical redshirt, and eased his way back into action in 2018. The statistics weren't great. Now, a year further removed from TJS, the stuff has improved significantly. The lefthander throws from a controlled 3/4 delivery. He's a physical pitcher, with a strongly built upper and lower half. The fastball has been up to 96 this spring and sits in the low 90s. He pairs the pitch with a curveball and a changeup. The changeup is a weapon against RHB, he consistently is able to spot it armside and have it tail and tumble out of the zone for whiffs. The CB flashes above average and is effective against LHB. He's like a generic brand Erik Miller (a 1st/2nd round arm) with a touch less FB/CB (but a better changeup) in a smaller frame. 

[Luke-OH]

Under the Radar Favorite #3

Zak Kent - RHP - 6'3" 195lb - VMI

Kent is way under the radar as the Sunday starter for VMI. He's got a good pitcher's body with room for a little more strength, but isn't super athletic or possessing elite arm speed. His abilities are a bit more subtle and he's still growing into them. He has absolutely elite spin on his 4S fastball, when he stays on top of it, it has major jump up in the zone and plays above it's 89-92mph velocity. When he overpronates the pitch, it has nasty armside life. He also has great feel for a slider, curveball, and change. On a good day he can throw them all for strikes and they all miss bats. He's still learning how to use his stuff and can groove a pitch from time to time, but has made steady improvement since being a low 80s HS pitcher. I could see him going in the 8th-12th round range and I think there is some real upside if you can get a couple ticks more velocity out of him, which seems doable considering his frame and mechanics. 

[Greg Pappas]

It's great to see Rutschman (6'2-216 S/R) having an outstanding season. Odds are he'll be our pick at #1, though we have a ways to go before then.  He's also considered a good defender behind the plate and seems like a strong overall #1.

Quote

Batting Statistics

Year	Team	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3b	HR	RBI	HP	BB	SO	SB	CS
2017			.234	.322	.306	.628	61	209	38	49	7	1	2	33	3	27	39	5	0
2018			.408	.505	.628	1.133	67	250	56	102	22	3	9	83	0	53	40	1	2
2019	ORST	C	.410	.586	.782	1.368	25	78	26	32	3	1	8	29	0	36	18	0	1

 

[Luke-OH]

One of my under the radar guys, Dante Biasi is now officially on the radar as he was ranked the 149th 2019 college baseball draft prospect in D1baseball’s midseason update after failing to make their preseason top 350.

[Luke-OH]

Also, an update on another of my under the radar favorites.

Nate Fassnacht is now hitting .432/.543/.839, good for a 1.372 OPS.

He has a 17.3% BB rate, a 4.3% K rate, 15 2B, 4 3B, and 7 HR (>4x as many XBH as Ks). Also 9 for 9 in stolen bases.

[sevastras]

Any thoughts on Trejyn Fletcher? He could throw a wrench in things(not saying he is 1-1).  Could he fall to 41?  He hasn’t played yet this year but was an early favorite for next year or at least a potential top 5. 

[Ruzious]

On 3/18/2019 at 11:47 AM, Luke-OH said:

If by some minor miracle Hunter Bishop, Nick Lodolo, or George Kirby are there at 41, I'd be very happy with any of them. 

Sounds like Bishop is an absurdly talented player.  https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/3/22/18275815/2019-mlb-draft-baseball-americas-updated-mock-draft-has-braves-taking-hunter-bishop 

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Sounds like Bishop is an absurdly talented player.  https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/3/22/18275815/2019-mlb-draft-baseball-americas-updated-mock-draft-has-braves-taking-hunter-bishop 

Yeah, I've been beating the drum for him all spring. No one in college baseball hits the ball as hard as he does. 

[Ruzious]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, I've been beating the drum for him all spring. No one in college baseball hits the ball as hard as he does. 

I've noticed.    So, is it looking conceivable that Bishop ends up in the same tier as Reutschman before the draft?  Btw, saying it's premature is a perfectly fine answer at this point.  

   

  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

I've noticed.    So, is it looking conceivable that Bishop ends up in the same tier as Reutschman before the draft?  Btw, saying it's premature is a perfectly fine answer at this point.  

   

  

If you think he sticks in CF (I'm not sure and leaning away from it) and you think the mechanical adjustments he made to his set-up and swing are unlocking his true potential and his previous struggles can be mostly disregarded (I do) then he should be in the 1-1 conversation.

I'm not sure if any teams would feel strongly enough about both of those things to put him in the Rutschman tier. 

[OregonBird]

Two oppo tacos for Rutschman today.  The guy is a beast.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, OregonBird said:

Two oppo tacos for Rutschman today.  The guy is a beast.

One from each side of the plate!