Small sample sizes

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I don't remember so many people getting this carried way in previous years over such microscopic sample sizes in a Spring Training.  Maybe it's because we had more established players, but you have posters making declarations on who is going to make the team over 20 Spring Training at bats.  

As long as there's been spring training there have been journeymen who went 14-for-29 and absolutely had to be on the roster.

I'm guessing Lou Hardie made the 1886 Chicago White Stockings because he wore out the Hot Springs, Arkansas town team in March.

[WalkWithElias]

15 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I don't remember so many people getting this carried way in previous years over such microscopic sample sizes in a Spring Training.  Maybe it's because we had more established players, but you have posters making declarations on who is going to make the team over 20 Spring Training at bats.  

At the end of the day, I think it's going to come down to where these guys are in their development and what they did last year over a full major league or minor league season rather than how how they look in Spring Training.  

Diaz, Hays, and Santander have all looked great in limited Spring Training at bats but they all also struggled to some degree at Double A last year.  I just can't imagine many scenarios where any of them break with the big league club.   And considering the state of the franchise there is no reason at all to rush them or even risk rushing them.  If they perform well in Norfolk and Bowie they will be back up soon enough. 

I don't remember so many people getting carried away with claiming so many people are getting carried away based on a few people making overly optimistic posts on a single message board. 

Seriously, this reflexive reaction to scream SMALL SAMPLE SIZE at the slightest glimmer of optimism is what shocks me. Been reading this board pretty steadily for awhile and folks here are pretty much on point with their balance of "It's great to see so-and-so off to a good start" with "I hope they can keep it up. We'll wait and see." There are a few outliers on the orange-colored glasses end of the spectrum, just as there are outliers on the doom and gloom, we can't have nice things edge... but to claim that so many people are getting carried away is intrinsically an over reaction to a small sample. 

Much like Frobby enjoys silly spring training wins, I enjoy checking the box score to see how Diaz, Hays, Santander, and heck, Eric Young Jr did each day. If they did well, I'm happy. If they struck out 3 times and grounded into a double play, I wish for better performance tomorrow. I like to think that's a normal response and the way most fans approach spring training. I listen to probably too much local sports talk and lurk on message boards. Seems most are balancing satisfaction with seeing young guys perform well with reality of this team likely not winning more than 65 games this season. Don't think "so many people" have gotten too excited over a few spring training games. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I don't remember so many people getting carried away with claiming so many people are getting carried away based on a few people making overly optimistic posts on a single message board. 

Seriously, this reflexive reaction to scream SMALL SAMPLE SIZE at the slightest glimmer of optimism is what shocks me. Been reading this board pretty steadily for awhile and folks here are pretty much on point with their balance of "It's great to see so-and-so off to a good start" with "I hope they can keep it up. We'll wait and see." There are a few outliers on the orange-colored glasses end of the spectrum, just as there are outliers on the doom and gloom, we can't have nice things edge... but to claim that so many people are getting carried away is intrinsically an over reaction to a small sample. 

Much like Frobby enjoys silly spring training wins, I enjoy checking the box score to see how Diaz, Hays, Santander, and heck, Eric Young Jr did each day. If they did well, I'm happy. If they struck out 3 times and grounded into a double play, I wish for better performance tomorrow. I like to think that's a normal response and the way most fans approach spring training. I listen to probably too much local sports talk and lurk on message boards. Seems most are balancing satisfaction with seeing young guys perform well with reality of this team likely not winning more than 65 games this season. Don't think "so many people" have gotten too excited over a few spring training games. 

I remember when Jeff Manto hit 4 straight home runs across 3 games.

I also remember when Josh Towers looked like the second coming of Greg Maddux for like a month in 2001.

 

[LookinUp]

For all of the talk about competition in the spring, I don't think spring performance will have a ton to do with who makes our outfield. They know (or at least hope) that Diaz and Hays are on the come. They're also hoping that Mullins and/or McKenna will be the third OF of the future. In the meantime, they've got Stewart and Santander seemingly ready to crap or get off the pot. Knowing what's on the way, I think they'll be compelled to find out what they have with those two. CF might be a competition, but only if they really want to let both EY Jr. and Rickard make the team. Otherwise, Mullins almost certainly will.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

IMO the fight for centerfield is Mullins and Hays.   Mullins not hitting well in camp after a poor Sept leaves him vulnerable to be optioned.  Hays is tearing it up offensive and playing well defensively in center.   Mullins has 52 days in the majors.  Hays has 34 days in the majors.  Days in the majors will probably not be a deciding factor on who makes the team between he two of them on OD.

I’ve only seen the two games televised on MASN, but I think Mullins has significantly more range in CF than Hays.   Hays has the better arm, but overall, I’m giving a pretty big edge to Mullins when it comes to manning CF defensively.    And I think that will carry the day in the early part of the season.    That said, I do have the impression that Hays is competent in CF, and if the O’s decide his offense is major league ready, he could go north.    But let’s remember that Hays struggled in the majors in 2017, had a down season at Bowie, and has never played at AAA.   Mullins played 60 games at AAA last year, hit well there, and hit better in the majors last year than Hays did in 2017.    Long run, I expect Hays to be the better hitter, but I think he’s less major league ready than Mullins and less of a natural CF defensively.   

[WalkWithElias]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I remember when Jeff Manto hit 4 straight home runs across 3 games.

I also remember when Josh Towers looked like the second coming of Greg Maddux for like a month in 2001.

 

Yeah? And I hope you really enjoyed those moments and didn't spend them with your arms crossed, muttering "Small sample size."

My point is that I don't think many people are getting carried away. We're simply enjoying players on our team having a few good games. We don't need to dump cold water on every fan who ever gets excited about a player. 

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Yeah? And I hope you really enjoyed those moments and didn't spend them with your arms crossed, muttering "Small sample size."

My point is that I don't think many people are getting carried away. We're simply enjoying players on our team having a few good games. We don't need to dump cold water on every fan who ever gets excited about a player. 

Well I think at 14 or whatever, I knew Jeff Manto wasn't going to suddenly turn into Babe Ruth.  I admittedly did get excited about Josh Towers, which was unfortunate.

I don't really see anyone here dumping cold water on anyone else.  But to tell the whole story of what a player is doing, you need to tell...the whole story.  And if that means they're hitting .400 in Spring Training but it's coming against AAAA types...well, that's the whole story.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I think at 14 or whatever, I knew Jeff Manto wasn't going to suddenly turn into Babe Ruth.  I admittedly did get excited about Josh Towers, which was unfortunate.

I don't really see anyone here dumping cold water on anyone else.  But to tell the whole story of what a player is doing, you need to tell...the whole story.  And if that means they're hitting .400 in Spring Training but it's coming against AAAA types...well, that's the whole story.

Very true, but part of the whole story is the mystique that comes with Elias and company bringing new evaluative and teaching tools to the table. It opens doors that have previously been closed. My theory is someone, at least one guy hopefully many more, will turn into a much better player because of it. It provides reason for optimism. Still, SSS are SSS. That's not going to change. Time will tell this story.

[WalkWithElias]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I think at 14 or whatever, I knew Jeff Manto wasn't going to suddenly turn into Babe Ruth.  I admittedly did get excited about Josh Towers, which was unfortunate.

I don't really see anyone here dumping cold water on anyone else.  But to tell the whole story of what a player is doing, you need to tell...the whole story.  And if that means they're hitting .400 in Spring Training but it's coming against AAAA types...well, that's the whole story.

I'll be sure to follow any post of "John Means had a good day" with "Too bad he's probably going to fail because he's old to be reaching the majors and his bump in velo may not be sustainable so I shouldn't spend too much time enjoying this guy because he's probably going to disappoint me in a month or so when he gets knocked around during the regular season, so really, I'm not sure why I follow an individual game because I should just wait until the end of the season and a players contract to better understand the whole story and determine if its worth any energy at all."

[Luke-OH]

Baseball is back and it’s ok to get excited about someone playing well. I do on occasion stress a more wholistic view of player evaluation and a focus on metrics that are predictive in spring training. Also that playing well and getting good results are not always the same thing.

I just wish I had exit velocities for all the spring training games to see if guys like Sisco and Diaz have really improved power. 

And for the record, people react to spring training stats and April MLB stats more than they probably should every year, it’s not anything new. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, WalkWithElias said:

I'll be sure to follow any post of "John Means had a good day" with "Too bad he's probably going to fail because he's old to be reaching the majors and his bump in velo may not be sustainable so I shouldn't spend too much time enjoying this guy because he's probably going to disappoint me in a month or so when he gets knocked around during the regular season, so really, I'm not sure why I follow an individual game because I should just wait until the end of the season and a players contract to better understand the whole story and determine if its worth any energy at all."

That's a lot of typing, you could just say "small sample size" and I think everyone would understand.

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I just wish I had exit velocities for all the spring training games to see if guys like Sisco and Diaz have really improved power. 

Right. We just don't know what we're seeing. It's the same every year. Sort of the OP's point, though I agree that people's general happiness with performances so far hasn't really moved to Jake Fox territory. 

[mdbdotcom]

On our honeymoon, my ex-wife sent a friend of hers a postcard with just three words, "Small sample size." Is this what she  meant?

I didn't think so.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve only seen the two games televised on MASN, but I think Mullins has significantly more range in CF than Hays.   Hays has the better arm, but overall, I’m giving a pretty big edge to Mullins when it comes to manning CF defensively.    And I think that will carry the day in the early part of the season.    That said, I do have the impression that Hays is competent in CF, and if the O’s decide his offense is major league ready, he could go north.    But let’s remember that Hays struggled in the majors in 2017, had a down season at Bowie, and has never played at AAA.   Mullins played 60 games at AAA last year, hit well there, and hit better in the majors last year than Hays did in 2017.    Long run, I expect Hays to be the better hitter, but I think he’s less major league ready than Mullins and less of a natural CF defensively.   

Hays made a nice diving catch at the warning track today.    Question is, would Mullins have had to dive?

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/hays-incredible-diving-catch-c2523405083?t=t110-default-vtp

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays made a nice diving catch at the warning track today.    Question is, would Mullins have had to dive?

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/hays-incredible-diving-catch-c2523405083?t=t110-default-vtp

After watching Mullins last summer my question is would he have made the play at all?