Would you offer Austin Hays the Scott Kingery deal?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This is an INCREDIBLE deal for the Braves. It's hard to judge Acuna, who's probably concerned about financial security for himself and his family, but he's probably leaving $150+ million on the table. Maybe more. 

What are you talking about?    This deal covers his 4 arb years (he’s a Super-2) and 3 FA seasons.    Let’s assume he’s a player equivalent to Manny in value.    Manny made $32.5 mm in his three arb years combined, and will make $60 mm in his first two FA seasons.   Toss in $1.5 mm for his three pre-FA seasons combined, and maybe $25 mm for an Arb-4 year,  and that’s $119 mm.    So the Braves are saving $19 mm, not $150 mm. In exchange, if Acuna has a serious injury any time in the next 6 years before he’d hit FA, that’s the Braves’ problem, not his.     I’d say it’s a fair deal for both sides, and if anything, a little generous to Acuna. 

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you talking about?    This deal covers his 4 arb years (he’s a Super-2) and 3 FA seasons.    Let’s assume he’s a player equivalent to Manny in value.    Manny made $32.5 mm in his three arb years combined, and will make $60 mm in his first two FA seasons.   Toss in $1.5 mm for his three pre-FA seasons combined, and maybe $25 mm for an Arb-4 year,  and that’s $119 mm.    So the Braves are saving $19 mm, not $150 mm. In exchange, if Acuna has a serious injury any time in the next 6 years before he’d hit FA, that’s the Braves’ problem, not his.     I’d say it’s a fair deal for both sides, and if anything, a little generous to Acuna. 

So a quick Google search will quickly show you that you're in the complete minority with your opinion in terms of this deal being fair and/or favoring the team. And what you failed to mention is that both Harper and Machado both just signed $300+M dollar contracts. That type of money isn't going to be on the table for Acuna when he turns 31. The Braves basically locked up Acuna for 10 years for $124M (max). This is a player who, offensively probably best compares to Mookie Betts and at worst is probably an annual 25/20 guy with a .290ish batting average. Even if that's that best he can do this deal is an absolute bargain for a player of his caliber. It's clear he chose financial stability over more money, which is perfectly fine, but he continues at his current pace he's not getting paid what he's worth. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So a quick Google search will quickly show you that you're in the complete minority with your opinion in terms of this deal being fair and/or favoring the team. And what you failed to mention is that both Harper and Machado both just signed $300+M dollar contracts. That type of money isn't going to be on the table for Acuna when he turns 31. The Braves basically locked up Acuna for 10 years for $124M (max). This is a player who, offensively probably best compares to Mookie Betts and at worst is probably an annual 25/20 guy with a .290ish batting average. Even if that's that best he can do this deal is an absolute bargain for a player of his caliber. It's clear he chose financial stability over more money, which is perfectly fine, but he continues at his current pace he's not getting paid what he's worth. 

Easily a good gamble by the Braves for a player who had a 144 OPS+ as a 20 year old rookie. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Easily a good gamble by the Braves for a player who had a 144 OPS+ as a 20 year old rookie. 

Exactly. They paid him half of what the Phillies and Padres paid Harper and Machado and he's five years younger than both of them. I don't even know how to argue with someone who doesn't think that is a tremendous value. 

[Moose Milligan]

Acuna is a steal at that number.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Acuna is a steal at that number.  

If Acuna develops to his full potential, the Braves bought out several free agency years at less money than what Chris Davis is receiving today in 2019 dollars. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Acuna develops to his full potential, the Braves bought out several free agency years at less money than what Chris Davis is receiving today in 2019 dollars. 

Yup, oh well.

I hope that the Orioles have a player that they can do this with in a few years.

[Just Regular]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you talking about?    This deal covers his 4 arb years (he’s a Super-2) and 3 FA seasons.    Let’s assume he’s a player equivalent to Manny in value.    Manny made $32.5 mm in his three arb years combined, and will make $60 mm in his first two FA seasons.   Toss in $1.5 mm for his three pre-FA seasons combined, and maybe $25 mm for an Arb-4 year,  and that’s $119 mm.    So the Braves are saving $19 mm, not $150 mm. In exchange, if Acuna has a serious injury any time in the next 6 years before he’d hit FA, that’s the Braves’ problem, not his.     I’d say it’s a fair deal for both sides, and if anything, a little generous to Acuna. 

The Rotoworld note says 9th and 10th year options could bring value to $124M, and if they are really only $12M/year for those two late prime years, they are probably worth tens of millions each if the bus doesn't crash.  I'm not sure the inflation difference between Machado 2012-2018 and Acuna 2019-2028, but would think it compounds enough to make this a bit more of a Braves win.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Union HQ, and will be curious to hear the next quotes from Scott Boras, Mookie Betts and some subset of Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero and Kyle Tucker.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OrioleDog said:

The Rotoworld note says 9th and 10th year options could bring value to $124M, and if they are really only $12M/year for those two late prime years, they are probably worth tens of millions each if the bus doesn't crash.  I'm not sure the inflation difference between Machado 2012-2018 and Acuna 2019-2028, but would think it compounds enough to make this a bit more of a Braves win.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Union HQ, and will be curious to hear the next quotes from Scott Boras, Mookie Betts and some subset of Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero and Kyle Tucker.

They aren't.  They are for 17M, the difference is the 10M buyout if the Braves don't pick up the options.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They aren't.  They are for 17M, the difference is the 10M buyout if the Braves don't pick up the options.

Thanks.  I suppose $12M-$17M is a fair range of what a 1-win player may cost 8 years from now, but at $17M each I'd guess maybe they are a $40M asset instead of a $50M one.  Though that said, after this offseason, I don't even know if $8-9M per WAR remains today's rate.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So a quick Google search will quickly show you that you're in the complete minority with your opinion in terms of this deal being fair and/or favoring the team. And what you failed to mention is that both Harper and Machado both just signed $300+M dollar contracts. That type of money isn't going to be on the table for Acuna when he turns 31. The Braves basically locked up Acuna for 10 years for $124M (max). This is a player who, offensively probably best compares to Mookie Betts and at worst is probably an annual 25/20 guy with a .290ish batting average. Even if that's that best he can do this deal is an absolute bargain for a player of his caliber. It's clear he chose financial stability over more money, which is perfectly fine, but he continues at his current pace he's not getting paid what he's worth. 

You do understand that he has six full seasons before free agency, right?    I’m going to retract the part of my post where I said if anything, the team was generous, because I didn’t know about the two team options when I wrote that.   The options, of course, favor the team and could save them $25-30 mm if Acuna plays well, whereas they’re not committed to those years if he doesn’t play well or gets hurt, etc.    With that in mind I’ll now say it may somewhat favor the team.   But he certainly didn’t leave $150 mm on the table.  

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What are you talking about?    This deal covers his 4 arb years (he’s a Super-2) and 3 FA seasons.    Let’s assume he’s a player equivalent to Manny in value.    Manny made $32.5 mm in his three arb years combined, and will make $60 mm in his first two FA seasons.   Toss in $1.5 mm for his three pre-FA seasons combined, and maybe $25 mm for an Arb-4 year,  and that’s $119 mm.    So the Braves are saving $19 mm, not $150 mm. In exchange, if Acuna has a serious injury any time in the next 6 years before he’d hit FA, that’s the Braves’ problem, not his.     I’d say it’s a fair deal for both sides, and if anything, a little generous to Acuna. 

Acuna definitely left money on the table. He gave up four free-agent seasons and limited himself to $124M for the first decade of his career. He would have been 27 when reaching Free Agency - now he'll be turning 31. That puts him in a far more disadvantaged position to get a big second contract.

Eloy Jimenez just got $85M total and only gave up one year of free agency. So, Acuna gave up three more free-agent seasons for only $39 million more? He could possibly make that in one year of free agency on a big 10 year deal. And Acuna is already a really good player! Jimenez just got his first hit.

Sure, Acuna sets himself up for life - but I think the chance of a career-ending injury is far less than being a 31-year old corner outfielder with declining skills. The Braves made out like bandits.

 

[bpilktree]

Grichuk got 5 years 52 million.

Rockies Marquez 5 years 43 million.  

Looks like signing guys early seems like the new strategy even for somewhat mediocre players.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

You do understand that he has six full seasons before free agency, right?    I’m going to retract the part of my post where I said if anything, the team was generous, because I didn’t know about the two team options when I wrote that.   The options, of course, favor the team and could save them $25-30 mm if Acuna plays well, whereas they’re not committed to those years if he doesn’t play well or gets hurt, etc.    With that in mind I’ll now say it may somewhat favor the team.   But he certainly didn’t leave $150 mm on the table.  

I understand that you are wrong.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

You do understand that he has six full seasons before free agency, right?    I’m going to retract the part of my post where I said if anything, the team was generous, because I didn’t know about the two team options when I wrote that.   The options, of course, favor the team and could save them $25-30 mm if Acuna plays well, whereas they’re not committed to those years if he doesn’t play well or gets hurt, etc.    With that in mind I’ll now say it may somewhat favor the team.   But he certainly didn’t leave $150 mm on the table.  

The problem is that he hits FA at age 31 instead of 28. Nobody is going to give him 8/$200M at that age. If he is a $300M player (a big "if"), I have a hard time seeing him getting enough in free agency to get to that number. He would be much better off hitting FA in his prime at 25 or 26. This is similar to the Jones deal, which was massively favorable to the O's, and has the potential to be even more favorable to Atlanta (although some risk that he is less proven than Jones was).