2019 O's: Where service time is king

[UpstateNYfan]

I think of AAA as a holding tank versus a place for much development. Keep the bodies warm and potentially ready for the move up. Service time?? I think an organization that is looking 6 years ahead will never be ready for the present. 75% of the ML teams are looking for 2-3 year windows of opportunity to compete with realistic salary control and fill in with a good (but maybe costly) FA. If it doesn't work out adjust, trade and work on your next window. If you develop a decent farm, the windows open at more frequent intervals. 25% of the teams will almost always be in the mix.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, UpstateNYfan said:

I think of AAA as a holding tank versus a place for much development. Keep the bodies warm and potentially ready for the move up. Service time?? I think an organization that is looking 6 years ahead will never be ready for the present. 75% of the ML teams are looking for 2-3 year windows of opportunity to compete with realistic salary control and fill in with a good (but maybe costly) FA. If it doesn't work out adjust, trade and work on your next window. If you develop a decent farm, the windows open at more frequent intervals. 25% of the teams will almost always be in the mix.

Elias is all about the future.  Service time is part of that.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is all about the future.  Service time is part of that.

But is it really all there is?

[UpstateNYfan]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is all about the future.  Service time is part of that.

You play for the future by developing a continuing supply of talent in the minors. PA's failure wasn't $$$$ spent, it was thinking of the farm as an inconvenience of being an owner. I think MLB/Union has to rethink the service time position. In baseball years, life is short....one year can have a huge impact on a player's baseball income.

[osfan83]

I wonder how many players have their peak years in the minors. That would be my concern as an owner/GM. Professional sports is a young man's game. How many times has a 22-24 year old been at their best, and could have contributed well to an MLB team, but was held back, only to never hit that peak again?  

[24fps]

Is any player currently in the Orioles system that close to the ML level and so precious that such manipulation is called for?  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, UpstateNYfan said:

I think of AAA as a holding tank versus a place for much development.

I don’t agree at all.    Obviously AAA is loaded with older guys who have played in the majors, either for a long period of time or short stints. Perhaps development is not such a big thing with those guys.    But for a lot of younger players, facing those players poses challenges that are different from facing the players their own age who have talent but not experience.    I think there’s often a lot to be gained from playing in AAA that you don’t get from AA ball.    I may be in the minority here but generally I like to see some AAA success before sending players to the majors.    

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

This how many posters on OH feel in regards to how Elias views service time for prospects.

[OFFNY]

15 minutes ago, 24fps said:

 

Is any player currently in the Orioles system that close to the ML level and so precious that such manipulation is called for ???  

 

o

 

I remember in 2011, when the Orioles initially decided to send Zach Britton down to AAA before the start of the season, strictly because of the service time.

Britton actually said that he was flattered by it, because in his mind it meant that the organization thought so highly of him that they wanted to keep him under team control for as long as possible, and that they (obviously) had plans for him many years down the road:

 

........ "It's flattering, that the organization feels that highly of me that they want me around for so long" ........

 

Britton on Being Sent Down

(By Britt Ghiroli)

http://brittghiroli.mlblogs.com/2011/03/29/britton-on-being-sent-down/

 

We actually DID NOT send Britton down, because 2 of the starting pitchers that we had been counting on to start that (2011) season were injured.

We were trying to save up for the proverbial rainy day, by sending Britton down to AAA-Norfolk ........ and then it started raining (with the injuries to 2 of the Orioles' starting pitchers.)

 

o

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, UpstateNYfan said:

You play for the future by developing a continuing supply of talent in the minors. PA's failure wasn't $$$$ spent, it was thinking of the farm as an inconvenience of being an owner. I think MLB/Union has to rethink the service time position. In baseball years, life is short....one year can have a huge impact on a player's baseball income.

And yet (and I'm not basing this on facts at all but why should that stop me?) that would contradict his perceived humanitarian beliefs and problems he had with the buscones in Latin America, right?  You would think that he would support the minor leaguers.  IMO

[24fps]

50 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

I remember in 2011, when the Orioles initially decided to send Zach Britton down to AAA before the start of the season, strictly because of the service time.

Britton actually said that he was flattered by it, because in his mind it meant that the organization thought so highly of him that they wanted to keep him under team control for as long as possible, and that they (obviously) had plans for him many years down the road:

 

........ "It's flattering, that the organization feels that highly of me that they want me around for so long" ........

 

Britton on Being Sent Down

(By Britt Ghiroli)

http://brittghiroli.mlblogs.com/2011/03/29/britton-on-being-sent-down/

 

We actually DID NOT send Britton down, because 2 of the starting pitchers that we had been counting on to start that (2011) season were injured.

We were trying to save up for the proverbial rainy day, by sending Britton down to AAA-Norfolk ........ and then it started raining (with the injuries to 2 of the Orioles' starting pitchers.)

 

o

Playing the service time game in the first part of 2019 is one thing, but I don't see anybody except maybe Diaz that warrants any consideration beyond that.  Maybe.  This is year one of a rebuilding process that will take several years, but I think you can get too loose with your thinking about how non-competitive that licenses you to be.  IMO our next wave needs to be up the minute they're considered ready to play at the ML level and let's see what develops from that.  In the meantime the brain trust can be working hard to find even better alternatives.  It's a dynamic process, so I think they should be dynamic and not be overly concerned about conserving service time of players whose upside looks to be that of ML regulars at best.

[UpstateNYfan]

15 minutes ago, bobmc said:

And yet (and I'm not basing this on facts at all but why should that stop me?) that would contradict his perceived humanitarian beliefs and problems he had with the buscones in Latin America, right?  You would think that he would support the minor leaguers.  IMO

Well, you could say that if he signed "underaged" players in these countries it could be humanitarian (helping impoverished families), but finds it against laws/practices used in the US for similar aged kids. He seemed to prefer seemingly quick fixes not a long term strategy for success.

[Ohfan67]

5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I may not agree with the specifics, but I do agree with the spirit of wildcard's post. The issue also may not be service time. It may really be player development. Either way, Elias isn't in a hurry to put the most talent possible on our 25 man roster. 

I basically agree with this. Elias has probably written off the next two years, so nothing that happens at the major league level this year other than a player improving trade value is beneficial. A prospect playing well in Baltimore this year would be a total waste from the three to five years out window. It's going to be a really, really rough year and next year is going to be a big bummer too. We are all paying for the sins of ownership. The decisions to postpone a rebuild and take the low probability gamble for a wildcard spot in 2017 and, especially 2018, lack of investment in international prospects, etc., have firmly come home to roost.  I guess the flip side is that the Orioles can have the patience to really wait for a prospect to beat down the door. The Orioles have rushed a lot of prospects to the bigs (Mancini being a notable exception). 

[Bubble Buddy]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

Nice work on finding all this info and all, but I just don't see it playing out exactly like this. Especially if there are injuries at the ML level that force moves. 

It COULD play out like this, but it's awfully hard as a GM to just plan out your moves like this. I still maintain that Elias has development in mind more than service time. A full reset for the prospects that were definitely rushed. A more thorough evaluation and instruction in the minors using their proprietary analytics, and then reassess. 

I believe this too. I like the idea of having the players master the different levels, or in Hays’ case, go down and prove that 2018 was injury riddled and flukey (and also play some CF). 

Elias has said at different points that many of the players on the next winning team are already in the organization. This could be part of that long term development outlook, giving guys a fresh start to “reset” as you said and earn their way back up to the bigs. 

I’ve got no problem with it and it also saves me some $ on the MLB.TV package. I’ll just need to find a bar in town that has MLB and I can use the ol’ eye test every few weeks to back up what I’m seeing in the box scores. 

[LookinUp]

Alternative possibility*:

Virtually nobody in this organization has had the opportunity to perform with the benefit of advanced data. The most generous conclusion then is that nobody in this organization has been given a fair chance to succeed. By demoting so many theoretically "on the cusp" players, Elias has essentially given a bunch of other guys their first real chance to succeed. He's giving them a chance to show they can perform without the proverbial anchor that the organization tied to players in year's past. 

This approach could be interpreted as a more thorough, systematic even, approach to finding out what we actually have in this organization. It may be unfair to a few guys on the come, but it's more than fair to all of the guys who were never really given a fair chance to succeed prior to this year.

 

* I don't actually believe this, as written, but I do think it's a fair defense if Elias wanted to offer it.