Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, atomic said:

Adam Jones was a six time all star.  I don’t think Mountcastle has to be as good as Adam Jones to be a productive player.

My point is, an .800ish CF is an all star.   An .800ish 1B/DH is a guy who’s just a so-so player.    And I’m hoping for more than that from Mountcastle, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to that.    

[WalkWithElias]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

My point is, an .800ish CF is an all star.   An .800ish 1B/DH is a guy who’s just a so-so player.    And I’m hoping for more than that from Mountcastle, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to that.    

I know this is the standard line that you really need to mash to be an important contributor at first base, but there are very few players who can be viewed in that way. Just checked the 2019 first basemen and there are only 6-7 guys I’d call real difference makers (Bell, Freeman, Alonso, Hoskins, Rizzo, Santana, Muncy) who are all OPSing north of .880. The next group of guys are Vogelbach, Voit and Christian Walker, all of whom two years ago you’d assume were nothing more than filler and could just as easily disappear into obscurity next season. 

After that, the rest of the league has what we’d then call a so-so player. This isn’t a golden age of power hitting first basemen maulers. If Mountcastle produces 6-8 years of .800-.850 OPS, he’d be in the top 10 first basemen in baseball and I’d happily sign on for that. 

 

[MCO'sFan]

Guys are always looking for perfect players. There are only a few truly complete players. I think it’s fine to discuss prospects and their flaws but some posters take it way too far and constantly beat them up. I usually just ignore their posts. I am very much looking forward to seeing RM succeed in ML

[TINSTAAPP]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:01 AM, Frobby said:

They’re already doing it.    

Truth is, Mountcastle walks less than AJ did, and he’s got less room  than AJ for those kinds of flaws since he doesn’t play a premium defensive position.    

Adam Jones had a 7.1% walk rate and Jonathan Schoop had a 7.8% walk rate in the minors. Mountcastle has a career walk rate of 4.4%. Jones and Schoop are two of the more impatient hitters the Orioles have had in recent years yet their walk rate in the minors was still significantly higher than Mountcastle's current walk rate. Plus Mountcastle has a 20% strikeout rate for his career. How many players struck out four and a half times as often as they walked in the minors and went on to be a successful major league hitter? i bet that list is very short. There are a lot of red signs about his offensive skills translating to the majors. 

[WalkWithElias]

5 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Adam Jones had a 7.1% walk rate and Jonathan Schoop had a 7.8% walk rate in the minors. Mountcastle has a career walk rate of 4.4%. Jones and Schoop are two of the more impatient hitters the Orioles have had in recent years yet their walk rate in the minors was still significantly higher than Mountcastle's current walk rate. Plus Mountcastle has a 20% strikeout rate for his career. How many players struck out four and a half times as often as they walked in the minors and went on to be a successful major league hitter? i bet that list is very short. There are a lot of red signs about his offensive skills translating to the majors. 

Two of the most impatient hitters are future Oriole HOFers, all stars, and centerpieces to the most successful teams the franchise has put forward in two decades. 

Its so weird we’ve moved from bashing some of our best players for not being perfect to bashing our best prospects by comparing them to our former best players. Very meta. 

[WalkWithElias]

53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would sign up for that as well.  I think we need to see significant improvement before I would expect those kinds of results.

Based on the current landscape of major league starting first basemen, I don’t think you’d find too many guys who clearly profiles as sure thing performers. Rental Nunez is #13 first basemen by OPS and he rarely plays the position and we consider him a deeply flawed spare part. 

There is Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the only everyday starting first basemen who have been Impact bats for multiple seasons who have another an .800 OPS this season. Goldschmidt is way down. Alonso could join them but he’s a rookie. Hoskins looks to be joining that group. The rest of this group are guys who are significantly overperforming expectations. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Two of the most impatient hitters are future Oriole HOFers, all stars, and centerpieces to the most successful teams the franchise has put forward in two decades. 

Its so weird we’ve moved from bashing some of our best players for not being perfect to bashing our best prospects by comparing them to our former best players. Very meta. 

If Mountcastle was a 2B or a CF you wouldn’t hear as many reservations about his one offensive flaw.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

If Mountcastle was a 2B or a CF you wouldn’t hear as many reservations about his one offensive flaw.  

I think you would.

Folks like to build guys up that are not highly regarded and tear guys down that are.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

People?  Haha.  Can you name even one of these people and show an example.  Dare ya!  Double dare you!  

By people do you mean the posters or the players?

I honestly don't understand why you are even questioning the comment.  We have all seen folks nit picking Diaz, Hays and Mountcastle all of which are well regarded nationally. 

We have all seen folks like Smith and Broxton get talked up after the smallest bit of success despite plenty of evidence that they are not very good.

That just current roster/minors guys.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Shouldn't we question a guy with 12 walks in over 300 pa's in AAA?  Is that tearing a guy down?

And tearing down Daiz because his batting average is a bit low?  Acting like Smith is an actual valuable ML hitter because he has some RBI early in the year?

Everyone in the know seems to think Mountcastle has a special bat.  You however are laser focused on one thing.  Which is your prerogative of course but you certainly aren't considering the opinions of others.

BTW for Mountcastle I was including all of those who declared him a DH before he took a groundball at first or shagged a fly in the outfield.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Special bat?  Everybody in the know?  Is that why he fell out of BA's top 100?  I think you have a lot of nerve to suggest I don't consider other opinions. I have acknowledged Tony and Luke's opinions. Doesn't mean I don't still have strong reservations about him.  Laser focused on one thing?  Sure, the plate discipline is a major red flag.  However, I have also pointed out that his OPS is far from "special" this year in the INT League.   He has not proven to have any value at any defensive position YET.   

 

 

 

You acknowledged their opinions, that isn't the same as considering them. 

[atomic]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

My point is, an .800ish CF is an all star.   An .800ish 1B/DH is a guy who’s just a so-so player.    And I’m hoping for more than that from Mountcastle, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to that.    

If he averages 2.5 WAR for 5 to 6 years and then fades away that is still a great contributor to the team.  He doesn’t have to be a star to help the team. If he is an average first baseman  that is better than 7 of our 9 position player outputs of today’s team,  

You don’t have to have Markakis or Jones like careers to be contributors.  Look at the 1983 starting line up.  There were 3 position players that put up as much career WAR as Adam Jones,  the rest were just average players putting up less than 2 WAR on a championship team. 

[Punchandjudy]

I wonder how many people who have opinions set in stone on a 22 year old have seen the guy play in person? How many have watched a game of his start to finish?  How many have watched him play in the field?  How many have drawn their conclusion based on what they’ve read and stats? 

My point is I reserve judgement until I’ve seen him play and I reserve ultimate judgement until i see him in person. The guy has some flaws to his game and there are others who are pushing him to start tomorrow against the Sox.  I think if he played short for so many years, he could play a respectable left.  I think if he rakes, he will learn to walk here and there when he matures a little.  I don’t know if he will be a good, great, or average player but I’m not willing to make that call until I see him with my own two eyes. I suspect that rule doesn’t apply to a lot of people who have posted in this thread, and think they know what type of player Mountcastle is. 

[LookinUp]

On 7/20/2019 at 9:19 PM, Punchandjudy said:

I wonder how many people who have opinions set in stone on a 22 year old have seen the guy play in person? How many have watched a game of his start to finish?  How many have watched him play in the field?  How many have drawn their conclusion based on what they’ve read and stats? 

My point is I reserve judgement until I’ve seen him play and I reserve ultimate judgement until i see him in person. The guy has some flaws to his game and there are others who are pushing him to start tomorrow against the Sox.  I think if he played short for so many years, he could play a respectable left.  I think if he rakes, he will learn to walk here and there when he matures a little.  I don’t know if he will be a good, great, or average player but I’m not willing to make that call until I see him with my own two eyes. I suspect that rule doesn’t apply to a lot of people who have posted in this thread, and think they know what type of player Mountcastle is. 

I'm not 100% down on the guy by any means, but what would me going to watch him for a series this week do to change my mind about 13 BBs in 389 plate appearances? 

[jamalshw]

With all the talk about the walks, how realistic is it to expect someone to develop a better batting eye and/or more patient approach at the plate? Also, would him getting to The Show and having success, particularly with some power, lead to pitchers pitching him differently and more carefully and thus lead to more walks?

I'll defer to those more in the know on this kind of thing, but there are my questions.