Adam Hall 2019

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I take your point about Hall’s FB rate being similar to Martin’s, but at least so far he looks like a much better hitter than Martin, who at age 20 was OPSing .695 in the NY-Penn League.   Hopefully he’ll continue to develop.    

This is kind of a devil’s advocate argument, but Hall is striking out 25% of the time and hitting for 30 game power (and that’s being generous). The bulk of his value is tied to the .523 babip. I’ll concede that he is earning a top of the charts BABIP, but that’s not going to continue even if you hit like Mike Trout with Billy Hamilton’s speed.

[Three Run Homer]

I was pleased to see that Hall went 5-for-6 last night.  But I was shocked to see that Jean Carlos Encarnacion had two walks!  

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, Pheasants said:

I really get tired of the need for power idea.  If he hits over .300 with walks and stolen bases in the majors as a lead off hitter, does he need power?  With age and filling out, he'll probably get some without trying.  It would not surprise me if McKenna's poor start is due to attempts to change his swing to give him more power.  The Orioles could once again destroy what works.

I can almost guarantee you he's NOT.... going to hit over .300 in the majors if he doesn't show at least some gap power in the minors.  I've seen it so many times.  Nobody's saying he can't fill out and get stronger and start hitting doubles - I'm just saying I would have to see that before determining he's a legit prospect.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

This is kind of a devil’s advocate argument, but Hall is striking out 25% of the time and hitting for 30 game power (and that’s being generous). The bulk of his value is tied to the .523 babip. I’ll concede that he is earning a top of the charts BABIP, but that’s not going to continue even if you hit like Mike Trout with Billy Hamilton’s speed.

Very fair.    And having never seen the guy play, I really can’t comment  on how sharply he hits the ball, etc.   

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I can almost guarantee you he's NOT.... going to hit over .300 in the majors if he doesn't show at least some gap power in the minors.  I've seen it so many times.  Nobody's saying he can't fill out and get stronger and start hitting doubles - I'm just saying I would have to see that before determining he's a legit prospect.  

Maybe he could be David Eckstein (.281/.345/.355).   That said, Hall strikes out way more often than Eckstein did.    

[LookinUp]

He's still 19 (barely). Has some swing issues, but some nice attributes too. Definitely still at an improvement age, if there is such a thing. Hopefully coaching can get him to target and improve his flaws. 

[Ruzious]

Ozzie Albies is a player who hit no homers in high A ball for over 400 at bats, but he hit a fair amount of doubles and triples (and was just 18).  Obviously, Hall doesn't have to become Albies to be very successful, and there's plenty of time for him to start showing gap power.  

[hoosiers]

Hall will not strike out in 25% of his PAs this year.  I would bet on it.

I believe the K rate will be under 20% - as it has been for the last 10 games.  He struck out a lot in the first few games to the season and I do not believe those early games are indicative of how his season will go.

Hall has already made strides in his BB rate and I expect the Os to work with him on launch angle and similar get more line drives and xbh.  Hall is still only 19 years old.

[makoman]

11 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Ozzie Albies is a player who hit no homers in high A ball for over 400 at bats, but he hit a fair amount of doubles and triples (and was just 18).  Obviously, Hall doesn't have to become Albies to be very successful, and there's plenty of time for him to start showing gap power.  

Interesting. For Albies: 0.080 ISO at age 17 (RK ball). 0.094 at age 18 (A). 0.128 at age 19 (AA-AAA). 0.155 at age 20 (AAA). Then from ages 20-22 managed 0.183 in MLB. That's a nice progression.

Hall had a 0.080 at 19 in low A and 0.064 in this young season at age 20 in A ball (well he'll be 20 in a month). Obviously a couple years behind Albies, but not everyone makes the majors at 20. Albies had the benefit of getting professional coaching at an earlier age (and sure I'll say it, in a better developmental org) and people grow at different rates...we can still have hope that Hall could develop similarly, and as you say we can still be happy even if he doesn't become top-10ish prospect good.

 

[Frobby]

A little love from Fangraphs:

Adam Hall, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 11   FV: 40+
Line: 5-for-6, 2B, SB

Notes
Hall has been scorching since late last year. He slashed .378/.441/.500 in August and is at .365/.467/.429 so far this season. He’s continued to steal bases like he did late last summer, too. Of his 22 steals last year, 15 came in August. Hall has seven bags in 16 games so far in 2019. He’s a slash and dash type of hitter and that style of play works best against bad, lower-level defenses, which is part of why he’s got a .523 BABIP right now. That’s got to come down, but this is a strong start.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-25-19/

 

[Frobby]

Hall 2 for 3 with 2 stolen bases and a HBP yesterday.   Now hitting .379/.481/.439, with 16 runs scored and 9 stolen bases in 17 games.

I’ve noticed that Hall gets hit a lot. 11 HBP in 62 games last year, 3 in 17 games this year.    Does he crowd the plate?    Does he simply not move when the ball is headed his way?    Those HBP’s were worth 43 points of OBP last year, 38 points so far this year.    

[Frobby]

Hall hit his first homer of the season tonight, going 2 for 4.    He also got HBP for the 5th time in 21 games.    

[Cumberbundy]

 

[ChuckS]

He's in a bit of a slump right now.  3 for his last 27 with 15 k's. OPS is south of .800.  

Grenier meanwhile is up to .720. 

This goes to show you (and me too) that you can't get too excited over a hot start.  It's a long season.  Let's hope Adam can snap out of it soon.  

Hall should spend the whole season in Delmarva.  I'd like to see Grenier promoted soon.  Frederick is a favorable hitting environment and both of these guys should be playing SS everyday. 

[WalkWithElias]

After cooling off to start the month, Hall seems to have made an adjustment and is heating back up. Four multi-hit games in his last 10 including 3 in his last 5. Back up to .792 OPS on the season. 

Still not much power. 9 doubles and 2 HRs.