Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[LA2]

7 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

That was my feeling, also ........ when Guthrie, Millwood, Matusz, and (usually) Arrieta were on the mound, I thought that we had a chance. Not that we were necessarily going to win, because bad teams often find ways to lose, whether it be not offensively supporting a good start, not coordinating a good offense with good pitching and defense all in one game, making an error and/or not coming through on offense at a crucial point in a close game, etc ........ but I thought that we had a chance when they started the games.

Bergesen was not the same pitcher after he had gotten his leg broken on a line drive the year before, and Tillman was still 2 years away from the nice run that he had between 2012 and 2016.

 

o

Yes, Bergesen lost his sinker, Matusz his change-up the following year, and Tillman had to undergo a remake under Rick Peterson before returning to the big leagues. Looking back, it's truly a marvel that we got as far as we did one or two years later in 2012. Chen won a dozen games and no one else more than 9. The bullpen, including Chris Davis's two innings, had to be great all season and was--until the playoffs.

Sometimes I think Omar Quintanilla has morphed into Hanser Alberto.... Shake my head at the pressure we put on players like Endy Chavez, Lew Ford, Wilson Betemit, Pedro Strop, Joe Saunders, and a 19-years-old Manny suddenly playing third base in Brooksville.

[LA2]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

21 starts of mid 3.00 ERA...offset by two terrible months.  And they must have been REALLY bad to make an ERA rise like that.  Like I said, complete body of work.  

But agree to disagree.  

At this point, we hardly disagree at all. Glad we could exchange views.

[sevastras]

3 hours ago, LA2 said:

Yes, Bergesen lost his sinker, Matusz his change-up the following year, and Tillman had to undergo a remake under Rick Peterson before returning to the big leagues. Looking back, it's truly a marvel that we got as far as we did one or two years later in 2012. Chen won a dozen games and no one else more than 9. The bullpen, including Chris Davis's two innings, had to be great all season and was--until the playoffs.

Sometimes I think Omar Quintanilla has morphed into Hanser Alberto.... Shake my head at the pressure we put on players like Endy Chavez, Lew Ford, Wilson Betemit, Pedro Strop, Joe Saunders, and a 19-years-old Manny suddenly playing third base in Brooksville.

How dare you bring up that name? I heard he once kicked a cane out from under an old lady causing her to fall and then picked up the cane laughing, proceeding to use it as a croquet  mallet on puppies. After he was done, he went and burned down an orphanage using the cane to roast marshmallows for s’mores. All of this during a 30 minute rain delay. Just sick. 

[weams]

My RV is parked in a vineyard near Santa Clarita CA.  My peak WAR is now. 

[LA2]

41 minutes ago, weams said:

My RV is parked in a vineyard near Santa Clarita CA.  My peak WAR is now. 

Is that really true, you're no longer in Pennsylvania? My dilapidated '86 Mallard Sprinter waits--broken AC, leaking gaskets, musty cushions and all--in a backyard in Miami like a faithful mangy mutt. Completely registered and insured for less than $200/year. A last resort once all the karma catches up to me.

[weams]

I am going back this week. But I’ve been KerouacIng since January. 

[Chito]

Eno Sarris wrote about Means in a column on pitchers off to surprising starts:

 

John Means

I’ve got a comp for you: Marco Estrada. That comp has its ups and downs, but it captures Means’ arsenal best. In today’s game, Means’ 92 mph fastball is below-average, but it has really good ride and jumps on the hitter — only four pitchers have more ride, and one of them is Estrada. His fastball and changeup have a 12 mph velo gap, and Estrada’s have a 12 mph velo gap.

And just like Estrada struggled to find a good breaking ball, Means has been looking for his own third pitch. The curve rates really poorly in all dimensions, so the slider has to be the key. So far, it’s doing just well enough with a slightly below-average whiff rate, but there are reasons to be worried. Nobody’s really swinging at it (39 percent swing rate, 48 percent is average), and so he may have to come into the zone more with it — which would be a bad idea if it’s not a great pitch.

Just as Marco Estrada has had some good stretches — even in good hitter’s parks — Means may have the ability to rock hitters back and forth with that fastball and change. But for continued success (or an ERA better than Estrada’s career 4.29 number), Means will need to find more.

 

 

[LookinUp]

Interesting perspective that does align with his FIP.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Chito said:

Eno Sarris wrote about Means in a column on pitchers off to surprising starts:

 

John Means

I’ve got a comp for you: Marco Estrada. That comp has its ups and downs, but it captures Means’ arsenal best. In today’s game, Means’ 92 mph fastball is below-average, but it has really good ride and jumps on the hitter — only four pitchers have more ride, and one of them is Estrada. 

What exactly is “ride,” how do you measure it, and where are those measurements found?

[Chito]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

What exactly is “ride,” how do you measure it, and where are those measurements found?

Seems like it's just another way to say "perceived rise."  Linked to spin rate.  Here's what Sarris wrote in a piece about Walker Buehler:

There’s another advanced concept that’s at play here. “Ride,” or the way that a backspun fastball can counteract gravity and appear higher at the plate than a batter expects, is something that Buehler has used to guide his development.

Spin contributes to movement, and Buehler has the 12th-highest spin rate among starting pitchers in baseball this year. More spin on a four seamer generally means more ride. Buehler has more ride than the average pitcher, but only the 116th-highest ride since we started tracking these things in the early 2000s.

So why doesn’t he have more ride?

“Over 94, the ride matters less because it’s firm enough to not be perceived any different,” Buehler told me. “The guys that throw invisiballs throw 90-92, the ride helps them play so much further.”

Edited May 17, 2019 by Chito

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Chito said:

Here's what Sarris wrote in a piece about Walker Buehler:

There’s another advanced concept that’s at play here. “Ride,” or the way that a backspun fastball can counteract gravity and appear higher at the plate than a batter expects, is something that Buehler has used to guide his development.

Spin contributes to movement, and Buehler has the 12th-highest spin rate among starting pitchers in baseball this year. More spin on a four seamer generally means more ride. Buehler has more ride than the average pitcher, but only the 116th-highest ride since we started tracking these things in the early 2000s.

So why doesn’t he have more ride?

“Over 94, the ride matters less because it’s firm enough to not be perceived any different,” Buehler told me. “The guys that throw invisiballs throw 90-92, the ride helps them play so much further.”

Thanks.   That explains what it is, but I’m still curious where these measurements are found.    I would love to see a list of the top “riders.”

[Chito]

Just now, Frobby said:

Thanks.   That explains what it is, but I’m still curious where these measurements are found.    I would love to see a list of the top “riders.”

He did write this just after the part I posted:

The all-time top 50 four-seamers by ride average 90 mph. Among four-seamers that average more than 94 mph, Buehler actually has the 11th-highest ride of the era.

[Frobby]

I think I found where they track this.    It’s really just vertical movement on the fastball.   Means is second highest of any pitcher who has thrown 30 innings this year:   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=19&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Chito]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think I found where they track this.    It’s really just vertical movement on the fastball.   Means is second highest of any pitcher who has thrown 30 innings this year:   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=19&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Yep. Just found Sarris pointing someone to the BP Pitch f/x leaderboard. 

[Chito]

Just now, Chito said:

Yep. Just found Sarris pointing someone to the BP Pitch f/x leaderboard. 

The average vertical movement on the BP f/x scale is 9.  Blake Snell is at 11.  Verlander is still getting it done at 11.15(!)

Means is at 10.99.  Bundy 10.75.  Both near the top in that category.