Law's biggest disapointment from Futures Game: Beato

[Chollie Eckman]

How in the world does a doctor to look at a blood test and figure out what's right or wrong right away?

Professionals don't need two years to make a judgment on the quality of the guy's delivery.

Bad analogy. Try again. If the same "scout" said the same things about KRod, Oswalt, Pedro, Lincecum, et. al. would you still defend him?

Are you agreeing with the "scout" on his 2 batter opinion of Beato? The outing that produced a bloop single and a K?

Is it OK for scouts to watch one-half inning of a game and leave resting assured that he saw all he could see about a pitcher? Or is it all in that one blood test/half inning?

Professionals, eh? I know they get paid for what they do, but not very much. You seem to put a lot of faith in anonymous scouts. Who knows, maybe that guy was the one who told us to draft Chris Smith. Would you trust his opinion then?

[Zaimoku]

Bad analogy. Try again. If the same "scout" said the same things about KRod, Oswalt, Pedro, Lincecum, et. al. would you still defend him?

Professionals are professionals--they've been trained to do what they do, and they don't need a lot of time to make certain judgments in their field. It's an excellent analogy, and you haven't explained why it's not, other than just saying so. "If the same scout said..." is the classic strawman. How would you know what the same scout said or didn't say?

Who knows, maybe that guy was the one who told us to draft Chris Smith. Would you trust his opinion then?

His opinion would have been irrelevant regarding an ex post facto judgment on Smith, who suffered what turned out to be a career-ending injury in minor league camp before pitching in even one game for the Orioles minor league teams.

[Chollie Eckman]

An excellent analogy? Comparing something that is extremely subjective(scouting) to something that is scientific is the epitome of "apples to oranges".

Do you think the anonymous NL scout is excellent too?

[blazer]

An excellent analogy? Comparing something that is extremely subjective(scouting) to something that is scientific is the epitome of "apples to oranges".

Do you think the anonymous NL scout is excellent too?

Exactly...scouting is not an exact science, much of the medical field is, especially blood testing. If our scouts only saw every possible draft pick for only two at bats (hitting or pitching), I would have very little faith that they were making the right decisions. To come up with an accurate assessment you need to see someone in multiple games, both live and in person. Two at bats shows nothing, especially for a starting pitcher who is coming into a game as a relief pitcher.

[dorfmac]

I think that we also need to keep in mind that many of the players in that game are at higher levels than Beato - mostly AAA and AA from what I saw. It shouldn't come as much of a suprise if Beato was who they were least impressed with because he's a lower-level pitcher, right? The comparisons were being made to higher-level competition.

[Zaimoku]

If our scouts only saw every possible draft pick for only two at bats (hitting or pitching), I would have very little faith that they were making the right decisions. To come up with an accurate assessment you need to see someone in multiple games, both live and in person. Two at bats shows nothing, especially for a starting pitcher who is coming into a game as a relief pitcher.

Perhaps you're forgetting what the scout said.

"Sat at 87 mph with a below-average curveball, and his delivery is a train-wreck, with a long arm action, a stiff landing, and a lot of effort."

The scout's watched how many thousands of people pitch in his career? (With the intention of judging their ability.) And you're saying--based on your scouting knowledge?--that two batters isn't enough for what this scout reported?

I don't think so.

Maybe Beato has a better curve ball that he didn't show. But that's not what the scout was judging. He was asked to look at and evaluate what Beato actually did.

Heck, I'm not a scout and all it took was two batters for me to figure out that Denny Bautista's delivery was a train wreck, to cite just one example.

The comparison with the doctor is apt because these people are professionals who do what they do for a living--to eat and make house payments--every day, and have done it for years.

[blazer]

Perhaps you're forgetting what the scout said.

"Sat at 87 mph with a below-average curveball, and his delivery is a train-wreck, with a long arm action, a stiff landing, and a lot of effort."

The scout's watched how many thousands of people pitch in his career? (With the intention of judging their ability.) And you're saying--based on your scouting knowledge?--that two batters isn't enough for what this scout reported?

I don't think so.

Maybe Beato has a better curve ball that he didn't show. But that's not what the scout was judging. He was asked to look at and evaluate what Beato actually did.

Heck, I'm not a scout and all it took was two batters for me to figure out that Denny Bautista's delivery was a train wreck, to cite just one example.

The comparison with the doctor is apt because these people are professionals who do what they do for a living--to eat and make house payments--every day, and have done it for years.

Perhaps you are forgetting that he came in from the bullpen. Over the past two seasons he has done that exacty zero times in 42 games pitched. This could very easily explain his 5 mph drop in velocity of his fastball, especially if he was unable to go through his normal warm up routine.

In terms of the delivery, this is not something I have ever heard before about Beato, so it suprised me to hear. If this is something that is common knowledge, please site additional sources. Perhaps this was the first time this particular scout has seen Beato.

Testing blood is close to an exact science. Scouting is not, or every team would be very good at it.

[Zaimoku]

Perhaps you are forgetting that he came in from the bullpen. Over the past two seasons he has done that exacty zero times in 42 games pitched. This could very easily explain his 5 mph drop in velocity of his fastball, especially if he was unable to go through his normal warm up routine.

In terms of the delivery, this is not something I have ever heard before about Beato, so it suprised me to hear. If this is something that is common knowledge, please site additional sources. Perhaps this was the first time this particular scout has seen Beato.

The part about not warming up is pure speculation. You don't know, I don't know, so why bring it up? The "common knowledge" is a new part of the thread for me, so why bring that up, either?

The scout saw what he saw, and I tend to believe professionals when conducting their business rather than Internet board scuttlebutt.

An observation about poor pitching mechanics at lower A ball is hardly "an inexact science".

[NoVaO]

Its possible that he struggles pitching from the stretch. No scout saw him pitch from his wind-up.

None on this year - 4.34 BB/9, 8.95 K/9

Men on this year - 4.71 BB/9, 5.94 K/9

The innings are virtually the same.

Even last year, the same sort of splits:

None on - 3.58 BB/9, 9.37 K/9

Men on - 3.70 BB/9, 6.66 K/9

You see the exact same splits (slight increase in BBs, a heavy decrease in Ks) in Aberdeen as he had in Delmarva just adjusted for competition.

I saw his video, and yes his arm action is fairly long. If he shortens it up, and becomes more efficient using his body, he should experience an increase in velocity. I will also note that Law's gun was a bit slow. The stadium had Beato anywhere from 89-91 so if Law got 87, that was on the low end of what he threw.

There was effort in his delivery but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. The fact that he does put effort in his delivery and isn't able to throw it very hard tells you that he isn't using his body efficiently so there are certainly some corrections to make.

[bigbird]

Has Law ever said positive things about the O's. If he were a Yankee prospect Baeto would have been awesome.

[tywright]

Has Law ever said positive things about the O's. If he were a Yankee prospect Baeto would have been awesome.

bingo

BA had Beato at 92

[Leitch]

The comparison with the doctor is apt because these people are professionals who do what they do for a living--to eat and make house payments--every day, and have done it for years.

LAWL

It's akin to taking two of the tiniest measurable units of blood as your sample. Doctors take hell of blood depending of the test.

[DrShorebird]

bingo

BA had Beato at 92

Tonight (Wed 7-12) Pedro's fast ball topped out at 94 on the Shorebirds official radar and sat at 92/93 most of the time. He has been at about 93 all year and has not reached his 95/96 yet (according to Pedro).

[Chollie Eckman]

Tonight (Wed 7-12) Pedro's fast ball topped out at 94 on the Shorebirds official radar and sat at 92/93 most of the time. He has been at about 93 all year and has not reached his 95/96 yet (according to Pedro).

Thanks Doc. I trust you more than an anonymous scout. BTW, do you do blood work too?

[tywright]

Tonight (Wed 7-12) Pedro's fast ball topped out at 94 on the Shorebirds official radar and sat at 92/93 most of the time. He has been at about 93 all year and has not reached his 95/96 yet (according to Pedro).

Good to hear...thanks!

I didn't believe Keith Law to begin with