If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it’s more likely that they did raise the offer knowing that Aiken/Close probably wouldn’t accept in order to try and win the public perception war which I’m sure was a major concern for a team in a rebuild failing to sign their first pick.

Imagine the backlash if the O’s don’t sign their 1-1 this year.

Or maybe they don’t know what they are doing.  

 

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it’s more likely that they did raise the offer knowing that Aiken/Close probably wouldn’t accept in order to try and win the public perception war which I’m sure was a major concern for a team in a rebuild failing to sign their first pick.

Imagine the backlash if the O’s don’t sign their 1-1 this year.

Or maybe picking guys who will sign a lot less than slot 1-1 is a bad strategy.  Maybe just picking the best player is a smarter move.  Only 3 high school pitchers have been picked 1-1 and they have combined for 0.6 WAR.

[Luke-OH]

35 minutes ago, atomic said:

Or maybe they don’t know what they are doing.  

 

Or maybe picking guys who will sign a lot less than slot 1-1 is a bad strategy.  Maybe just picking the best player is a smarter move.  Only 3 high school pitchers have been picked 1-1 and they have combined for 0.6 WAR.

The strategy isn’t an inherently bad one, but of course there are plenty of ways it can go wrong or be misused. It’s worked out more often than not in recent years, but it depends on the players available, the execution, and of course a little luck. I agree 100% that it’s not the strategy that makes the most sense in this draft and I don’t think it’ll be used.

[Greg Pappas]

10 hours ago, weams said:

You are right. They are both old for the draft. 

Witt is a bit older than most other HS'ers, but Rutschman is a normal college age. In my earlier post, I meant to quote someone from Page 1, but forgot to do so. 

Here's Fangraphs Top Prospects list, showing the ages of the players: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

[webbrick2010]

On 5/10/2019 at 9:22 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He is?  Are you sure he hasn't been the worst player in the league?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/WARBR/order/false

Looks to me like he's at -1.2 rWAR (-1.1 fWAR)  Next worse is -.9 rWAR 

 

13.1 WAR thru age 28. He is off to a slow start.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

13.1 WAR thru age 28. He is off to a slow start.

The two obviously aren't mutually exclusive.

Remember the criteria was long and productive.

[Camden_yardbird]

On 5/10/2019 at 2:39 PM, atomic said:

We know what you think too which is mindlessly posting pro Elias stuff. Are you his mom?

Elias picked Mark Appel over Kris Bryant.  You know the guy who promptly won Rookie of the Year and National League MVP. A guy who already has 22 WAR over a guy who we know was not going to be a good pick who ended up never making it out of the minors.  Appel over Bryant was idiotic.  

This is complete hindsight.  That was not the case going into that draft and you know it.

[eddie83]

Last year I was hoping for Witt because I love the idea of building around a SS. 

At this point I really hope it is Rustchman and would be disappointed if it isn’t him. I would still trust Elias but it is hard to reconcile not taking him when everyone says he is a clear number 1. 

 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

This is complete hindsight.  That was not the case going into that draft and you know it.

Here’s a few mock drafts:

Sickels: Appel 1, Bryant 3:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.minorleagueball.com/platform/amp/2013/5/16/4335316/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-two-john-sickels-may-16

Bleacher Report: Moran 1, Appel 2, Bryant 5: https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1659070-2013-mlb-mock-draft-complete-first-round-projections.amp.html

SBnation: Appel 1, Bryant 5.  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/mlb/2013/6/6/4401732/mlb-draft-2013-mock-draft-jonathan-gray-mark-appel

Perfect Game: Gray 1, Appel 2, Bryant 3:  https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8572

USA Today: Gray 1, Appel 2, Bryant 3.   

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2397237

I’ll stop there.    It’s pretty clear that the consensus was Appel over Bryant.    

That said, it’s not Elias’ job to make the consensus pick, it’s his job to make a pick that turns out well.    He didn’t, and he has to wear that result.    

To me an objective observer would say that Elias has a mixed record on his 1-1 picks, but an above average record on his drafts overall.   I feel confident he’s as competent as anyone in his position would be.   Nobody bats 1.000 in the draft, even at 1-1.

[luismatos4prez]

Rutschman is a Top 25 prospect in baseball right now, who just happens to not be a professional yet. I'd be very disappointed if they don't take him. 

[thezeroes]

As it stands TODAY Rutschman is supposed to be the Number One Pick.  The June Draft is June 03, a lot can happen to make him fall out of that number one spot.  You have your injuries, youth stupidity, accidents and incidents that seem to follow humans around.  This eleven page thread would be better served on Memorial Day.IMO

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

As it stands TODAY Rutschman is supposed to be the Number One Pick.  The June Draft is June 03, a lot can happen to make him fall out of that number one spot.  You have your injuries, youth stupidity, accidents and incidents that seem to follow humans around.  This eleven page thread would be better served on Memorial Day.IMO

I don't think all that much could realistically happen in the next few weeks.  I don't think if he cuts his hand cutting bread for a sandwich it's going to cause him to drop.  It would take something pretty serious at this stage.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

As it stands TODAY Rutschman is supposed to be the Number One Pick.  The June Draft is June 03, a lot can happen to make him fall out of that number one spot.  You have your injuries, youth stupidity, accidents and incidents that seem to follow humans around.  This eleven page thread would be better served on Memorial Day.IMO

Honestly, short of an injury or a personal incident of some kind, I seriously doubt anything could happen on the baseball field that would change the assessment this year.    Rutschman’s body of work the last two years, including his performance in the CWS last season under the maximum pressure he’s going to see in college, won’t be significantly affected by anything remaining.  And if Elias has some reason not to believe his game will translate well to the pro level, that’s also not going to change in the next three weeks.    Sure you have to play it out to the end, but this isn’t a typical year.

[thezeroes]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, short of an injury or a personal incident of some kind, I seriously doubt anything could happen on the baseball field that would change the assessment this year.

That is what I was getting at with my post.

 

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As it stands TODAY Rutschman is supposed to be the Number One Pick.  The June Draft is June 03, a lot can happen to make him fall out of that number one spot.  You have your injuries, youth stupidity, accidents and incidents that seem to follow humans around.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, thezeroes said:

That is what I was getting at with my post.

 

 

But honestly, what are the odds that something happens at this point that would change things?

It's going to have to be something pretty serious.

We are plenty close enough to have talking about it.

[thezeroes]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We are plenty close enough to have talking about it.

Says someone that is not on record for their true thoughts.

 

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But honestly, what are the odds that something happens at this point that would change things?

Not a bookie so I don't give ODDS

 

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's going to have to be something pretty serious.

Serious things can happen.