Control and Command -- K/BB Ratio

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Crazy.

Cook all that meat on a 10 don't you?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Cook all that meat on a 10 don't you?

I don't see how anyone can not be swayed by the evidence the Luke has provided.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Riggodrill44 said:

Jamie Moyer disagrees.

I've added a bunch of what I feel like is pretty relevant data to this thread. If I'm missing something, please let me know so I can do further analysis.

[Riggodrill44]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

I've added a bunch of what I feel like is pretty relevant data to this thread. If I'm missing something, please let me know so I can do further analysis.

Yes I see, but do you believe your eyes? Moyer won games because he could command and control a pitched ball. He didn't have big velocity.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Riggodrill44 said:

Yes I see, but do you believe your eyes? Moyer won games because he could command and control a pitched ball. He didn't have big velocity.

I didn't ever say anything about it being impossible to thrive without velocity. Those cases are the exceptions that prove the rule. The fact it stands out so much that Moyer could get outs with his velocity is a good sign that similar results are extremely unusual. All I've said is velocity is the single biggest predictor of success. That doesn't mean everyone with velocity will succeed. It just means that a middle middle fastball with premium velocity plays better than a well located fringe velocity fastball. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Riggodrill44 said:

Yes I see, but do you believe your eyes? Moyer won games because he could command and control a pitched ball. He didn't have big velocity.

I believe Moyer was an aberration.  I also believe that eventually even Moyer lost enough velocity that his command couldn't compensate.

I think it is pretty telling when your one data point hasn't pitched since 2012.

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see how anyone can not be swayed by the evidence the Luke has provided.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Not generationaly relevant to me but I looked it up.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think I got what you need. Using these zones depicted in the photo below.

It is better to throw it 96mph or greater in the "heart"  .311 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast). 

Than it is to throw it 94mph or less in the "shadow"   .322 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast)

To answer your specific question, low and outside at 91 vs middle middle at 98

97-99 mph 4S fastballs in zone 5 on the chart above have a wOBA of .320

90-92 mph 4S fastballs in zone 19 (low and outside to RHB) vs RHB and zone 17 vs LHB (searched separately and averaged on a weighted basis) has a wOBA of .339

Where can we find these stats?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where can we find these stats?

If you look at the image it's from baseball savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/site-core/images/attack-zone.png

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where can we find these stats?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

[Chavez Ravine]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I believe Moyer was an aberration.  I also believe that eventually even Moyer lost enough velocity that his command couldn't compensate.

I think it is pretty telling when your one data point hasn't pitched since 2012.

I am definitely on your side of the argument, but there are contemporary aberrations: like Kershaw

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I am definitely on your side of the argument, but there are contemporary aberrations: like Kershaw

 

As recently as 2017 he was still averaging 93-94 with his fastballs.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=477132&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=05/27/2019&s_type=2

[Chavez Ravine]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

As recently as 2017 he was still averaging 93-94 with his fastballs.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=477132&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=05/27/2019&s_type=2

That's not a fastball these days, that's Cashner finding the fountain of youth

In 2018 Kershaw had a 1.04 WHIP and and a 3.19 FIP with an average fastball that was 91-92.

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I think I got what you need. Using these zones depicted in the photo below.

It is better to throw it 96mph or greater in the "heart"  .311 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast). 

Than it is to throw it 94mph or less in the "shadow"   .322 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast)

To answer your specific question, low and outside at 91 vs middle middle at 98

97-99 mph 4S fastballs in zone 5 on the chart above have a wOBA of .320

90-92 mph 4S fastballs in zone 19 (low and outside to RHB) vs RHB and zone 17 vs LHB (searched separately and averaged on a weighted basis) has a wOBA of .339

Luke-OH:

Thanks for posting this and your data source. I really appreciate the time and effort that you have expended in responding to my post.

Just to confirm: The zone chart depicted is from the catcher's perspective?

I'd like to gain some familiarity with the Statcast search facility so that I can follow your conclusions but it appears here that you have provided useful data to support your belief that "....velocity is the single biggest predictor of (pitching) success....."

Thanks again for responding to my posts.