Control and Command -- K/BB Ratio

[AZRon]

On 5/20/2019 at 4:05 PM, Chavez Ravine said:

I too am a bit dubious that the distinction between control and command is a quantifiable thing you can use to differentiate pitchers...even to separate the immortal from the elite. A test would be to see if pitchers in a non game situation , but going all out as if it was, can consistently throw their best stuff to a specific tiny spot. But we don't have the luxury of an experiment, just lots of complex in game situations.  I am dubious that even Schilling in his prime could hit a spot on command with his best "stuff" and do that over 7 innings, let alone a whole season.  It seems more likely to me that if you ask prime Schilling to throw a low and away fastball he did it more or less (most innings on most starts for a stretch of years)...unlike lots and lots of other pitchers. On the other side, are there really pitchers that can't consistently hit a spot but can throw strikes? As the article seems to point out the K/BB ratio seems to measure a whole bunch of unrelated things....like how many balls Maddox got the umpire to call strikes for him.

Baseball Prospectus has made a stab at it with "CSAA" (Called Strikes Above Average):
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31022/prospectus-feature-command-and-control/

[AZRon]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm pretty sure we decided that velocity is the least important thing for a pitcher.

Everyone else seemed pretty adamant about it.

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

You’re right, you don’t, there is hard data on your side.

 

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I purposely stayed out of that, I don’t have time to beat my head against the wall.

Luke-OH:
When you have time, I'd appreciate it if you would post that "hard data" that demonstrates that velocity is the most important characteristic in determining the effectiveness of an MLB pitcher. Thanks.

I believe that a pitcher with premium velocity (currently, 98+ mph) would require better than average command in order to be successful
while
a pitcher with less than average velocity (92.5 mph?) but premium command would be successful.

I also believe that a pitcher with less than average velocity, better than average command and premium pitch movement would
outperform
a pitcher with premium velocity, average command and average pitch movement.

Here's Miguel Castro's current zone chart:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=612434&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2019&endDate=01/01/2020

[Luke-OH]

This is the tip of the iceberg, but here is 4S fastball velocity (split from 2S and sinkers because they typically have different velo ranges). I grouped velocity values at the top and bottom of the scale so that each bucket would have 1000+ results. 

[Cumberbundy]

On 5/20/2019 at 12:07 PM, AZRon said:

Given the current MLB environment for pitchers, how would you rate the importance of the following pitching characteristics?:
(Does the relative importance differ for starters versus relievers?)
Velocity
Pitch movement
Spin rate
Control
Command

 

1) Velocity

2) nfg

 

 

[Luke-OH]

This is qualified starting pitchers Avg velocity vs FIP in 2018

And don't get me wrong, command, breaking ball, offspeed pitch quality, deception, pitchability are all important as well, but when you have someone like Billy Eppler stating this matter of factly, it's kind of hard to ignore.

“In running through this with analytics departments I have worked with over the last 14 years,” Eppler said, “velocity is the No. 1 predictor of success."

[bobmc]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is qualified starting pitchers Avg velocity vs FIP in 2018

And don't get me wrong, command, breaking ball, offspeed pitch quality, deception, pitchability are all important as well, but when you have someone like Billy Eppler stating this matter of factly, it's kind of hard to ignore.

“In running through this with analytics departments I have worked with over the last 14 years,” Eppler said, “velocity is the No. 1 predictor of success."

The WaPo has an article written by Dave Sheinen that highlights Driveline Baseball's Kyle Boddy's success with velocity training - in fact Oriole "ace in training", Dan Straily, is quoted as a poster boy.

"But in truth, Driveline’s “holy grail,” according to Boddy, is not velocity itself, but “efficiency” — defined as “how much velocity you can produce per normalized unit of stress.” In other words: how fast you can throw without exploding the ligaments and tendons in your arm.

"Straily, 30, is a typical Driveline success story. He first trained there in the winter after the 2015 season, when a sore shoulder and deteriorating mechanics saw his fastball drop to the 88-89-mph range, resulting in his spending the majority of that season getting battered around in Class AAA. After a winter at Driveline, he showed up for spring training in 2016 throwing 92 to 93 — pain-free — and went on to the best season of his major league career, going 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA for the Cincinnati Reds.

“Since then, I’ve made maybe 90 starts,” he said, “and I can honestly say I’ve never come in the next day and said, ‘My arm hurts.’ ”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/23/velocity-is-number-one-thing-this-high-tech-biomechanics-lab-is-changing-baseball/?utm_term=.0e350322d466

[AZRon]

On 5/22/2019 at 11:00 PM, Luke-OH said:

Chart -- Fastball Velocity vs. wOBA 2019 ....
Chart -- Avg velocity vs FIP in 2018 ....

And don't get me wrong, command, breaking ball, offspeed pitch quality, deception, pitchability are all important as well, but when you have someone like Billy Eppler stating this matter of factly, it's kind of hard to ignore.

“In running through this with analytics departments I have worked with over the last 14 years,” Eppler said, “velocity is the No. 1 predictor of success."

Thanks for responding.
I am not disputing that velocity can be integral to some pitchers' success. However, I believe that the most significant element in consistent pitching effectiveness at the MLB level is command. Of course, this is the "all else being equal" Gordian Knot when all else is never "equal"; but, that's a problem for the statistical elite.

The charts that you presented show that effectiveness increases with velocity. Can command be measured precisely and graphically rendered? Perhaps, if it could and similarly depicted, it would slope more sharply than velocity.

Further, those charts do not isolate for velocity. That is, there is no normalization for other pitching success factors.

I understand that, for pitching evaluation purposes, fans will look to those characteristics that are currently being measured -- velocity, spin rate, movement, even pace. I would hope that studious professional evaluators (and pitching coaches and trainers) would be attentive to the long arc of MLB history and emphasize precise command as the most impactful contributor to pitching effectiveness.

I welcome any further contributions to this discussion.

 

 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, AZRon said:

Thanks for responding.
I am not disputing that velocity can be integral to some pitchers' success. However, I believe that the most significant element in consistent pitching effectiveness at the MLB level is command. Of course, this is the "all else being equal" Gordian Knot when all else is never "equal"; but, that's a problem for the statistical elite.

The charts that you presented show that effectiveness increases with velocity. Can command be measured precisely and graphically rendered? Perhaps, if it could and similarly depicted, it would slope more sharply than velocity.

Further, those charts do not isolate for velocity. That is, there is no normalization for other pitching success factors.

I understand that, for pitching evaluation purposes, fans will look to those characteristics that are currently being measured -- velocity, spin rate, movement, even pace. I would hope that studious professional evaluators (and pitching coaches and trainers) would be attentive to the long arc of MLB history and emphasize precise command as the most impactful contributor to pitching effectiveness.

I welcome any further contributions to this discussion.

I have something I want to look at that may come closer to the isolation of velocity that you are asking about. Hopefully I’ll work that out and post it tonight.

[Luke-OH]

@AZRon Here is a look at two pitchers who have had a variety of fastball velocities over the course of their careers, I selected them for this feature, the fact they both have pitched a good deal (larger sample), and that they have had similar velocity highs and lows. Also, I liked that they represent differences in the types of velocity variability. Cashner has lost velocity as he's aged. Verlander will vary his velocity in game based on the situation. I didn't look for examples who fit my argument, these were the only two I looked at. Both strongly show the same general trend despite being the same pitcher with the same delivery, command, secondary pitches (for the most part, I understand these change throughout one's career). Again, not an isolation of command to show the affect on results, but a clear idea that fastball velocity matters significantly. 

Here's Felix Hernandez, thought of him afterwards. 

[AZRon]

On 5/24/2019 at 5:07 PM, Luke-OH said:

@AZRon Here is a look at two pitchers who have had a variety of fastball velocities over the course of their careers, I selected them for this feature, the fact they both have pitched a good deal (larger sample), and that they have had similar velocity highs and lows. Also, I liked that they represent differences in the types of velocity variability. Cashner has lost velocity as he's aged. Verlander will vary his velocity in game based on the situation. I didn't look for examples who fit my argument, these were the only two I looked at. Both strongly show the same general trend despite being the same pitcher with the same delivery, command, secondary pitches (for the most part, I understand these change throughout one's career). Again, not an isolation of command to show the affect on results, but a clear idea that fastball velocity matters significantly. 

Fastball Velo vs wOBA charts for Verlander and Cashner....

Here's Felix Hernandez, thought of him afterwards. 

Fastball Velo vs wOBA chart for Hernandez....
================================================
Luke-OH:

Thanks for responding.
Again, I'm not disputing that, with some pitchers, "fastball velocity matters significantly". I am suggesting that, with all pitchers, command matters more.

Do you have a chart or table (or any valid statistical data) that shows the wOBA for a large and varied sampling of MLB pitchers the wOBA for pitches by velocity in the middle of the plate versus those in the low/outside quadrant?

Or, how about 98 mph fastballs in the middle versus 91 mph fastballs versus those in the low outside quadrant?

You quoted Billy Eppler; I'll quote Ted Williams (who, I believe, is a greater authority on pitching; you'll note that his "first rule" does not include any reference to velocity):

 

[Luke-OH]

On 5/26/2019 at 9:47 AM, AZRon said:

 

I think I got what you need. Using these zones depicted in the photo below.

It is better to throw it 96mph or greater in the "heart"  .311 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast). 

Than it is to throw it 94mph or less in the "shadow"   .322 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast)

To answer your specific question, low and outside at 91 vs middle middle at 98

97-99 mph 4S fastballs in zone 5 on the chart above have a wOBA of .320

90-92 mph 4S fastballs in zone 19 (low and outside to RHB) vs RHB and zone 17 vs LHB (searched separately and averaged on a weighted basis) has a wOBA of .339

[Riggodrill44]

On ‎5‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 5:37 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Command

Movement

Velocity

Command 

Movement 

Control

Velocity

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Riggodrill44 said:

Command 

Movement 

Control

Velocity

Crazy.

[Riggodrill44]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Crazy.

Jamie Moyer disagrees.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Riggodrill44 said:

Jamie Moyer disagrees.

Pretty sure Mr Moyer is no longer pitching.