There Are Rumblings That the O's Will Not Take Rutschman

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, makoman said:

I don't know what's normal, but it'd be nice to start hitting on like 3-5 guys a year.

It *seems* like we've just been poor at development since about when Earl Weaver retired. Part of me wonders how many talented kids the O's have picked and just failed to prepare. I'm sure this is true of every organization, but I really think it was a bad thing to be picked by the O's over the last 30-40 years. You almost had to be supremely talented or lucky to have their style work out for you. 

[atomic]

18 minutes ago, makoman said:

Yeah our main problem IMO was too many drafts where we'd only hit on 1 guy. 2006 - Britton is the only one who gave us value. 2009 - Just Givens. 2010 - Machado draft, but that was it. 2011 - Bundy and then Davies gave us no value but got us a bad few months from Parra (blech). 2012 - Gausman, and Hader got us Bud Norris (double blech).

I don't know what's normal, but it'd be nice to start hitting on like 3-5 guys a year.

 

No one is hitting on 3 to 5 guys a year.  Look at other teams. Most everyone has years where they get nobody.  There is no drafting powerhouse out there.   Look at the Astro's.  They got next to nothing in 2013 and 2014 and they were drafting #1 overall.  

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, makoman said:

I don't know what's normal, but it'd be nice to start hitting on like 3-5 guys a year.

Who's had a very productive farm system... the Rays.  I'll go with the Rays, 10 years ago.  In 2009 the Rays' best pick was the 2.6 WAR from Andrew Heaney, their 24th rounder.

In 2010 they got Kevin Kiermaier in the 31st round.  Then Derek Deitrich's 6.7 WAR in the 2nd, and Michael Lorenzen's 4.2.

In 2011 it was Blake Snell at 10.7.  Then Jake Faria at 1.3.

In 2012 they got two wins out of Andrew Toles, 1.7 out of Dylan Floro, and 1.4 for Joey Rickard.

Their best 2013 pick thusfar is Ryne Stanek at 1.7 WAR.  Nobody from their 2014 class has made a positive impact yet.

I don't know if 3-5 hits a year is normal, but it's way above what the Rays have been doing, which is a 10-win player once every 3-4 years.

[glenn__davis]

34 minutes ago, Philip said:

I have faith in Mike’s logic, he may regret the pick later, but I’m sure he’s going to use sound reasoning in the choice. Whoever was making the decisions before, they inspired no confidence whatsoever.

We've had MANY discussions on this before, but I think Rajisch actually did a pretty good job.  Look at where he was picking, what he had to work with, and the amount of picks that were forfeited and/or "sold" due to FA signings.  Looks at his drafts and it's littered with guys that are among our top prospects now and look to have decent MLB futures.

That said, I'm happy to see what Elias does, but Rajisch seemed (to me) to be 1 of the few people in our development system that was good at his job.  But it's tough to tell with so little transperency.

[Curse of the Bamdino]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Fangraphs

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-4-0-the-morning-of/

 

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Clubs still think there’s a real chance for a cut-rate option here, with Vaughn and Bleday the two leading candidates and Witt less likely. This crew keeps a tight lid on things, and may not call someone’s adviser to really get down to brass tacks until sometime late this afternoon. Even the advisers of those potential backup options don’t yet know if they’re going 1-1, or how to handicap it. Contact hasn’t been made with Rutschman’s reps for weeks, which is also to be expected to maximize leverage. We think a lot of the buzz here is being mentioned as posturing, and that the odds are high the pick is just Rutschman; it’s something like an 80% chance, but by no means a slam dunk. It’s worth noting that some of the concerns on Rutschman’s medical are more likely to be flagged by Baltimore given their specific medical staff.

And I tend to trust our staff, given that they've been right more often than not.

 

[LookitsPuck]

I trust Elias.

That said, this is typical for the day before. You're going to hear a lot of rumours. I don't put any credit in them.

[LTO's]

22 minutes ago, atomic said:

No one is hitting on 3 to 5 guys a year.  Look at other teams. Most everyone has years where they get nobody.  There is no drafting powerhouse out there.   Look at the Astro's.  They got next to nothing in 2013 and 2014 and they were drafting #1 overall.  

They were able to trade Mark Appel and other fodder for Ken Giles. And then were able to trade Ken Giles for Osuna. The draft as whole was still pretty bad. The 2014 draft wasn't bad at all. They weren't able to sign the consensus top talent but turned it into one of the best young players in the game who shot through the farm system quickly. There were other players in that draft who played parts in the Astros success as well. And like every thread, you insist on not mentioning the studs they've drafted.

[25 Nuggets]

12 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I trust Elias.

That said, this is typical for the day before. You're going to hear a lot of rumours. I don't put any credit in them.

They're so much fun to get caught up in though!

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, atomic said:

No one is hitting on 3 to 5 guys a year.  Look at other teams. Most everyone has years where they get nobody.  There is no drafting powerhouse out there.   Look at the Astro's.  They got next to nothing in 2013 and 2014 and they were drafting #1 overall.  

I spot checked the Yanks.  You know that they've basically drafted one good MLB player since 2009?  Aaron Judge.  There are probably some more still in the minors, but literally most of their drafts have topped out with a guy with a couple of wins so far in their careers.  2009 they should have multiple players with 5-8 year careers by now.  But nope, it's Judge and nothing else.

[Tony-OH]

I have done nowhere near the work or have half the info that Mike/Sig have, but my preference would be to take Rutschman 1/1. Saying that, I'm not going to be too upset if it's someone else unless it ends up being Vaughn which I don't see) for no other reason than Mountcastle is our best offensive prospect and he needs to play 1B. 

Too much risk taking a HS SS with a hit tool question mark. 

 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I spot checked the Yanks.  You know that they've basically drafted one good MLB player since 2009?  Aaron Judge.  There are probably some more still in the minors, but literally most of their drafts have topped out with a guy with a couple of wins so far in their careers.  2009 they should have multiple players with 5-8 year careers by now.  But nope, it's Judge and nothing else.

Go back before that 15 years. It isn’t much better. 

And the National Media ignores it.

And I do plead guilty to hating the Yankees. 

[LookinUp]

I'm going to start down voting for Drungo because he's making me depressed. 

All I know is that every player in MLB came from somewhere, and tonight's draft is one of the primary sources for new talent. Expecting 3-5 guys/year may not be realistic, but this is where the O's need to have success. 

[makoman]

33 minutes ago, atomic said:

No one is hitting on 3 to 5 guys a year.  Look at other teams. Most everyone has years where they get nobody.  There is no drafting powerhouse out there.   Look at the Astro's.  They got next to nothing in 2013 and 2014 and they were drafting #1 overall.  

 

32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know if 3-5 hits a year is normal, but it's way above what the Rays have been doing, which is a 10-win player once every 3-4 years.

Fair enough.

Looking at it another way, last year it looks like there were about 228 players who amassed 2.0 bWAR or more. 2012 had 227 such players so that # looks reasonable enough. So about 7.5 per team. Since all those players were acquired over more than an 8 year period then perhaps you should be thrilled if you're getting 1 starting level type player per draft. 

[makoman]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I spot checked the Yanks.  You know that they've basically drafted one good MLB player since 2009?  Aaron Judge.  There are probably some more still in the minors, but literally most of their drafts have topped out with a guy with a couple of wins so far in their careers.  2009 they should have multiple players with 5-8 year careers by now.  But nope, it's Judge and nothing else.

Funny in 2013 they got the obvious future superstar from Notre Dame, while we got the also ran.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Maybe this is true, but I find it interesting that the source is rival clubs.  Why would we expect them to know anything factual (and definitive) about where the Os are leaning?