Adam Dunn

[Leo Gomez]

Along the same lines, where do you think Giambi ends up? He is real old but he is still putting up decent numbers. If the O's struck out with the big bats would a one year deal be worth considering?

No. It's not about next year. It's about the next five years and beyond.

[Sports Guy]

Along the same lines, where do you think Giambi ends up? He is real old but he is still putting up decent numbers. If the O's struck out with the big bats would a one year deal be worth considering?

Why would he sign a one year deal with us?

He is likely going to re-sign with NY and even if he doesn't, he isn't going to sign a one year deal with a 500 at best team.

[mweb]

I would say 5/80 would be about as high as I'd go. With Tex, I'd say I'd be willing to go to about 6/108. Doubt that gets either.

Both guys have a 131 career OPS+ and are the same age, the defensive difference is Tex's main advantage. Tex also get a little more due to being the hometown kid.

[Flosman]

Why would he sign a one year deal with us?

He is likely going to re-sign with NY and even if he doesn't, he isn't going to sign a one year deal with a 500 at best team.

I do not think AM would sign him anyway, because of the past baggage. But if the Yankees decide to sign Tex they will not be signing Giambi. Do you think anyone will give him a milti-year deal? I don't.

[Sports Guy]

I do not think AM would sign him anyway, because of the past baggage. But if the Yankees decide to sign Tex they will not be signing Giambi. Do you think anyone will give him a milti-year deal? I don't.

It is possible someone could but teams will certainly give him a 1 year deal and for him to sign with us, we probably have to put 2 or maybe even 3 years on the table.

[Eight]

Assuming that Dunn comes as a DH, and that we're going to build for a run soon, and that I'll overpay, I'll go as high as 5 yrs, 60M.

[TyCobb]

It would be interesting to see what a lineup of

Roberts 2b

Jones CF

Markakis RF

Dunn DH

Huff 1b

Wieters C

Scott LF

Mora 3b

SS

could do. AM spends on bats not pitching. Dunn to me will hit 40 hrs per for another 3 or 4 years. Would be sweet if Reimold could be a solid LFer for us. Put in in LF, Huff to 3b, and Scott to 1b. Move Mora to bench.

[HeatherC12]

Now that Cincy doesn't have Griffey's contract to worry about for next year, there is still a good possibility Adam stays right where he is with the Reds. I haven't seen any indication from Dunn that he wants to test free agency and he has said a few times recently that he would love to stay with the Reds. I wouldn't mind seeing him with the Orioles but I can see him staying with Cincy too.

And the money is not an issue either so please don't use that as an excuse. If the owners, GM, and manager all want Dunn to stay, Bob Castellini will approve a good deal to keep Dunn here. The Reds have tons of guys coming off their payroll after this season (they have 12 guys total who should head to FA) so money shouldn't be an issue.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think it's been reported that Texas is going to go very hard after Sabathia so it seems they realize they need pitching and that that will be a #1 priority for them.

Question for you guys....If both of these contracts get the player, do you give Tex 7/125 or Dunn 5/75?

Yes.

Characters.

[mweb]

I think it's been reported that Texas is going to go very hard after Sabathia so it seems they realize they need pitching and that that will be a #1 priority for them.

Question for you guys....If both of these contracts get the player, do you give Tex 7/125 or Dunn 5/75?

Dunn without question. Not enough difference between them to give Tex 50M more over 2 years.

[section18]

We will go after Dunn and will probably offer him 5yrs and $16.5 per yr for $82.5 million. I think the flag court and Eutaw St would become even more popular if Dunn comes to Baltimore. He hits some long distance shots and I think he would do great at OP. He will hit the wall in the air with no bounce.

[cixelsyD]

Considering the difference in price, I would rather have Dunn.

Tex, in my opinion isn't worth the money nor the length of contract he will be demanding. 4-5 years of Dunn wouldn't cripple the franchise if he doesn't pan out, whereas Tex certainly could.

Besides Dunn offers more power potential and gets on base at a similar clip to Tex.

I also don't consider Tex to be the "special" player that many have labeled him as.

[Eight]

I think it's been reported that Texas is going to go very hard after Sabathia so it seems they realize they need pitching and that that will be a #1 priority for them.

Question for you guys....If both of these contracts get the player, do you give Tex 7/125 or Dunn 5/75?

Definitely would take Tex. He's probably about 5 or so runs better with the bat maybe more factoring in that Dunn has played in the weaker league, 10-15 runs better on top of that counting defense/position. That's about two wins difference for a small difference in money, and given their respective skills sets I'd wager that Tex ages much better than Dunn so that the two extra years difference is probably negated partially, if not fully.

[now]

Isn't Dunn a classic example of Old Player's Skills? Low average, lots of strikeouts, lots of walks and homeruns, poor defense, no speed...maybe he'll buck the odds but guys like him don't age well on average.

He has 4 straight 40 homer seasons and, barring injury, will have #5 in a row this year.

"guys like him"? Not to pick on you, 3RHR, because your point is a good one, but...

I'd be plenty curious to find out how many players have 5 straight 40-HR seasons. I bet such a list is small and mostly Hall of Famers. Killebrew?--nope. Aaron?--nope. Banks?--nope. Mays?--nope. Mathews?--nope. Ruth?--well, yeah. Bonds? nope. Sosa--bingo. Griffey--check. ARod--yup. Thome--nope. Thomas--nope. Manny--nope. Giambi--nope. Pujols--nope. Ortiz--nope. Ted Williams?--he hit 40 once.

Should the Orioles go after Dunn?

Well, Duuuh.

[Anonymous]

"guys like him"? Not to pick on you, 3RHR, because your point is a good one, but...

I'd be plenty curious to find out how many players have 5 straight 40-HR seasons. I bet such a list is small and mostly Hall of Famers. Killebrew?--nope. Aaron?--nope. Banks?--nope. Mays?--nope. Mathews?--nope. Ruth?--well, yeah. Bonds? nope. Sosa--bingo. Griffey--check. ARod--yup. Thome--nope. Thomas--nope. Manny--nope. Giambi--nope. Pujols--nope. Ortiz--nope. Ted Williams?--he hit 40 once.

Should the Orioles go after Dunn?

Well, Duuuh.

Many of our wisest contributors/posters have been pushing for Dunn, including you, Nowick. But it surprises me that you and others can't accept that there's a flip side to this coin with some legitimate counter-arguments. 3RHR has offered some good ones. Mine aren't identical, although they overlap conceptually with his.

You've clearly established Dunn's credentials as an elite HR-hitting machine. But should that EVER be used as the sole criterion upon which to decide whether to acquire a particular player? Putting the bingo next to Sosa's name underscores that the answer clearly should be no.

More significant is the following structural issue: I can't conceive of any circumstance in which it's optimal for a team in the early stages of a rebuilding process to allocate the dollars involved in acquiring an expensive long-term solution for DH, no matter how good the bat. This is a position that guys can cycle through for the next couple of years during a period when the roster can be expected to exhibit some continued instability. For example, how many threads have we seen here pushing for Reimold in LF and Scott to DH? Or Montanez in LF and Scott to DH? Before that, we saw plenty of threads advocating that Moore make the team as a combined corner IF and DH guy who might also get some work at 2B. This idea may return by OD 2009. We've seen the idea that Wieters get installed as the starting catcher, while keeping his bat in the lineup as a DH on other days.

The point is that we're in flux right now, and DH isn't a bad spot to keep a bit open in dealing with that flux at this particular stage. Maybe when we're on the verge of completing the rebuild and ready to compete for a championship, it makes sense to acquire a poor-defense, all-hit guy whom you can write in every day for the DH job. Or maybe by that point, it no longer makes sense, as someone will have emerged in that spot after losing a position battle elsewhere. Who knows? But right now, I think the strategy of acquiring the perfect DH on an expensive long-term deal is structurally misaligned.