Adam Dunn

[clapdiddy]

Now here's a guy (Dunn) I'd go after along with Sean Casey.

Do you have him confused with someone else? You do realize he's 34 years old and playing way over his head in limited time this year, don't you?

[baltfan]

Large contracts for second tier All-Star free agents like Dunn get GM's fired.

See - Mike Hampton, Zito, JD Drew, Juan Pierre, Ritchie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus, Bobby Bonilla,

Invest in stud free agents - seldom let you down

Vlad

A-Rod

Bonds

R. Johnson

Manny (i'll take that production)

There are two studs out there in this free agent class.

Teixeira

Sabathia

Although I hate signing pitchers to big contracts, maybe you get C.C. at a bit of a discount because people think he is fat and will break down. But if the contract terms got in Zito territory, forget it. But remember he is only 27.

[baltfan]

How different, beside the home runs, is Dunn from Huff when we signed Huff? Is there really that much difference between the two?

[BaltimoreTerp]

How different, beside the home runs, is Dunn from Huff when we signed Huff? Is there really that much difference between the two?

Dunn career OPS: .904

Huff career OPS: .824 (both through 2008 season)

Dunn career home runs: 270, or 34 per year (though 2008)

Huff career home runs: 141, or 20 per year (through 2006)

Total number of 40+ home run seasons, Dunn: 4 (likely 5 with this year)

Total number of 40+ home run seasons, Huff: 0

Dunn is a much better hitter, and will be a year younger than Huff was when he was signed by the Orioles.

[geschinger]

Large contracts for second tier All-Star free agents like Dunn get GM's fired.

See - Mike Hampton, Zito, JD Drew, Juan Pierre, Ritchie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus, Bobby Bonilla,

Invest in stud free agents - seldom let you down

Vlad

A-Rod

Bonds

R. Johnson

Manny (i'll take that production)

There are two studs out there in this free agent class.

Teixeira

Sabathia

Although I hate signing pitchers to big contracts, maybe you get C.C. at a bit of a discount because people think he is fat and will break down. But if the contract terms got in Zito territory, forget it. But remember he is only 27.

Tex is a bery good player but he's not in the same class as the ones you mention as stud FAs. That is my problem with Tex in his situation. He's going to be paid as if he's one of the very best players in the game which he isn't rather than a top 5 caliber 1b which might be a good description for him.

[BaltimoreGhost]

I'm all for Adam Dunn, one warehouse shot would be worth it in my eyes.

[now]

I see a few people state that Teixeira and Dunn's career OPSes are about the same and also state that avg is a meaningless/overrated stat. I have a couple comments about that:

I agree that batting average is overrated if the player bats .300 but is otherwise putting up an OPS around .700-.750.

However, if two players (Tex and Dunn) have about the same career OPS (.908 vs .903) and SLG (.535 vs .522), but one player has a batting avg that is almost 40 points higher (.285 vs .248), that is not meaningless.

I do value walks and wished that the Orioles would have more players that could work the count and draw BB like Markakis and Roberts. But if given the choice between a basehit and a BB, a basehit is usually more valuable when runners are on base. A basehit with a runner on second will usually drive in that run while a BB won't.

For instance, Millar draws a fair number of walks, is a .250ish avg hitter nowadays and his OPS last year was .785. If Millar had hit 12 more hr last year (for a total of 29 hr) instead of making 12 outs, his OPS would have been .908 (.521 slg, .387 obp).

Would Millar with 12 additional hr last year been a big boost to the lineup? I'm guessing no.

Would he have been more valuable than Markakis, who only put up an .848 OPS last year while hitting .300? Again, I would say no. And definitely not if Markakis can get his OPS up to .900 while hitting .300ish.

Don't get me wrong, the 12 extra hr would have been nice, but it's not the same as a .300 hitter who is putting up a .900+ OPS.

Reading this I was ready to be convinced by a mathematical argument but instead it's anecdotal. So a hit's better than a walk. True. Likewise, a homer is more valuable than a generic hit. This value is implicit in the SLG percentage, where Dunn nearly compensates for 15% fewer total hits than Tex, by hitting 24% more homeruns.

---------OPS -- HR/AB -- SLG -- BB/AB -- BA -- OBP

Teixera: .908 --- .059 ---.535 -- .128 --.285 --.373

Dunn: --.903 --- .073 --- .522 --.204 --.248 -- .381

Another point to consider here is that Tex's higher average boosts both his OBP and his SLG; so hits already do have twice the weight of walks in the OPS calculation.

I'm still willing to believe there is a logic that the above spread favors Tex by more than the .005 points of OPS (it probably even appeared on this board at some point); but in the meantime I have to believe that an OPS is an OPS is an OPS, and that similar OPS means similar run production.

[Eight]

TEX (OPS+, 04-07): 144, 126, 150, 138

DUNN (OPS+, 04-07): 141, 114, 136, 140

Tex beats Dunn in three of the four years, with an almost insignificant difference this season in the one where done has been better. And in 2006 and 2007 it was not even close!

And this is before you account for Tex getting 75% of those PA in the tougher league while Dunn has always been in the NL. That makes the difference even larger.

Tex and Dunn are, of course, not even close defensively. Dunn will either be in left field, where he is one of the worst defensive players in the game, or, more likely, at DH. Tex is a 1B who plays his position well.

Tex and Dunn are the same age, within a few months, but Tex is MUCH more likely to age gracefully. Dunn is a big guy with no defensive value, little speed, lots of K's and a low average. That skill set does not age well. Tex has a relatively broad base of skills that will serve him better going forward.

And then of course above and beyond that, we all know the value Tex has that Dunn does not in terms of marketability and revenue-generating beyond on-field performance.

Tex may price himself out of the range where the Orioles should bid for him, but he will almost certainly be a better value than Dunn. The two are not particularly close as players and should not be treated as being comparable.

[Ruzious]

Come on now! Slap hitting CF's are getting close to that these days. He might not get Carlos Lee money but I bet he comes awfully close.

As opposed to Dunn being a power hitting CFer? Remember, some people were speculating that Dunn was done early this season - using that old mans skills argument - as the only way he was getting on was via walks. People buy into this stuff. Also, if his defense is viewed as not having value, that knocks his value down considerably. That's likely a big reason nobody was interested in Huff.

You got yerself a bet, RZ.

[Ruzious]

TEX (OPS+, 04-07): 144, 126, 150, 138

DUNN (OPS+, 04-07): 141, 114, 136, 140

Tex beats Dunn in three of the four years, with an almost insignificant difference this season in the one where done has been better. And in 2006 and 2007 it was not even close!

And this is before you account for Tex getting 75% of those PA in the tougher league while Dunn has always been in the NL. That makes the difference even larger.

I think that's a bit misleading. They both have lifetime OPS+ of 131. As far as all of the OPS stats go, they're pretty much the same hitter.

[TyCobb]

TEX (OPS+, 04-07): 144, 126, 150, 138

DUNN (OPS+, 04-07): 141, 114, 136, 140

Tex beats Dunn in three of the four years, with an almost insignificant difference this season in the one where done has been better. And in 2006 and 2007 it was not even close!

And this is before you account for Tex getting 75% of those PA in the tougher league while Dunn has always been in the NL. That makes the difference even larger.

Tex and Dunn are, of course, not even close defensively. Dunn will either be in left field, where he is one of the worst defensive players in the game, or, more likely, at DH. Tex is a 1B who plays his position well.

Tex and Dunn are the same age, within a few months, but Tex is MUCH more likely to age gracefully. Dunn is a big guy with no defensive value, little speed, lots of K's and a low average. That skill set does not age well. Tex has a relatively broad base of skills that will serve him better going forward.

And then of course above and beyond that, we all know the value Tex has that Dunn does not in terms of marketability and revenue-generating beyond on-field performance.

Tex may price himself out of the range where the Orioles should bid for him, but he will almost certainly be a better value than Dunn. The two are not particularly close as players and should not be treated as being comparable.

If you are going to use OPS+ then at least look it up. OPS+ takes league into account.

[Eight]

If you are going to use OPS+ then at least look it up. OPS+ takes league into account.

False. OPS+ does NOT make any attempt to adjust for the relative strengths between leagues; it only normailzes based on offensive level within a league.

I think that's a bit misleading. They both have lifetime OPS+ of 131. As far as all of the OPS stats go, they're pretty much the same hitter.

They've been the same hitter in their career, but they're not the same hitter going forward and in 2009. Data from more than four years ago does not have much relevance in projecting their future offensive value.

[TyCobb]

False. OPS+ does NOT make any attempt to adjust for the relative strengths between leagues; it only normailzes based on offensive level within a league.

From baseball-reference:

method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.

1. My method Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)

2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF

3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.

4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.

5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.

6. Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.

7. Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)

8. Note, in my database, I don't store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier.

[TyCobb]

False. OPS+ does NOT make any attempt to adjust for the relative strengths between leagues; it only normailzes based on offensive level within a league.

From baseball-reference:

method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.

1. My method Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)

2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF

3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.

4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.

5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.

6. Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.

7. Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)

8. Note, in my database, I don't store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier.

[Ruzious]

They've been the same hitter in their career, but they're not the same hitter going forward and in 2009. Data from more than four years ago does not have much relevance in projecting their future offensive value.

You're really reaching, imo. They're tied - this year - and Teix has played most of this year in the same league as Dunn.