TT: Scouting the 40 man: Who will be part of a winning future?

[LookinUp]

I don't really have a bone to pick with this list, but my expectation is that a whole lot of these guys will be churned big time by Elias in the next 18 months. By that, I mean traded, replaced or otherwise set aside.

Most of the guys in this org are obviously not Elias guys. I wonder how many fit Sig's FV models well. I'm guessing not many. I imagine several creative deals that are somewhat head scratchers to those of us following the team, but that make a lot of sense to our new FO. We'll see.

[Philip]

“Churn”  definitely the right word. As guys come up, other guys go away. 

I just hope that if a guy is ready he won’t be held back. And conversely, if a guy is terrible, we won’t give him three years to get better like we did with Mike Wright.

 

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

“Churn”  definitely the right word. As guys come up, other guys go away. 

I just hope that if a guy is ready he won’t be held back. And conversely, if a guy is terrible, we won’t give him three years to get better like we did with Mike Wright.

Definitely agree on the 3 years thing. I just think the odds on these guys are probably even lower than Tony set them (in the aggregate). I don't have anyone specifically in mind, but I'd wager very few are really locks in Elias' eyes.

This is total speculation by me, but if Elias turns around and trades someone like John Means, I wouldn't even be surprised, much less shocked. I'm not predicting that, I just really think he has some profiles that he likes and we're not totally sure what those profiles are yet.

[Edit: with all of this speculation said, I'd still say Tony's as good at setting these odds as anyone else not in the front office. It's just a very hard task, IMO, at this point.]

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Definitely agree on the 3 years thing. I just think the odds on these guys are probably even lower than Tony set them (in the aggregate). I don't have anyone specifically in mind, but I'd wager very few are really locks in Elias' eyes.

This is total speculation by me, but if Elias turns around and trades someone like John Means, I wouldn't even be surprised, much less shocked. I'm not predicting that, I just really think he has some profiles that he likes and we're not totally sure what those profiles are yet.

[Edit: with all of this speculation said, I'd still say Tony's as good at setting these odds as anyone else not in the front office. It's just a very hard task, IMO, at this point.]

Yeah, it was more of a fun exercise than some scientific assessment. I was trying to give people a quick scouting report of the 40-man roster and some kind of assessment on the chances of them being on the roster in any significant role. 

I tend to agree with you that we could see an even broader sweep of the 40-man as Elias will have more time to assess the talent available through trades and free agency (though I wouldn't expect any significant free agent signings until after 2020 season).

 

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, it was more of a fun exercise than some scientific assessment. I was trying to give people a quick scouting report of the 40-man roster and some kind of assessment on the chances of them being on the roster in any significant role. 

I tend to agree with you that we could see an even broader sweep of the 40-man as Elias will have more time to assess the talent available through trades and free agency (though I wouldn't expect any significant free agent signings until after 2020 season).

 

I bet he wants his Verlander though. Arrieta is another great example. Electric arm that isn't performing. I wouldn't be shocked if he took on some salary to obtain a guy like that even if it's sooner than 2020+.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I bet he wants his Verlander though. Arrieta is another great example. Electric arm that isn't performing. I wouldn't be shocked if he took on some salary to obtain a guy like that even if it's sooner than 2020+.

Perhaps in the right scenario with the right guy and with the right controllability. Perhaps. 

I just don't see him adding any major payroll until at least after 2020 season.

[Three Run Homer]

This is a great chart, thanks Tony.  It is amazing how many awful pitchers we have on the current 40 man roster--guys with no past, no present and no future.