MLB top 30 Prospects

[bpilktree]

An updated top 30 list is on mlb pipeline.  

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

1. Rodriguez 

2. Mountcastle 

3 Hall

4. Diaz

5. Hays

6. Akin

7. Mckenna

8. Lowther

9.  Kremer

10. Knight 

[AceKing]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As a one dimensional player whose one dimension is not great, I don't get Mountcastle at #2.  The bat isn't "special" and the plate discipline is abysmal.  Give me Hays and Diaz before Mountcastle.  Mountcastle has an .850 OPS in increased offensive atmosphere in AAA this year.  As a 1B whose aggressiveness will be exploited in the majors I say "big deal".  

Mountcastle is 22 and everybody in the organization agrees that he has the best bat in the organization.

 

he is in every list at the top.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As a one dimensional player whose one dimension is not great, I don't get Mountcastle at #2.  The bat isn't "special" and the plate discipline is abysmal.  Give me Hays and Diaz before Mountcastle.  Mountcastle has an .850 OPS in increased offensive atmosphere in AAA this year.  As a 1B whose aggressiveness will be exploited in the majors I say "big deal".  

The bat is special enough.   It’s not like the O’s are full of top prospects.   I agree he’s a deeply flawed player.   

[makoman]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As a one dimensional player whose one dimension is not great, I don't get Mountcastle at #2.  The bat isn't "special" and the plate discipline is abysmal.  Give me Hays and Diaz before Mountcastle.  Mountcastle has an .850 OPS in increased offensive atmosphere in AAA this year.  As a 1B whose aggressiveness will be exploited in the majors I say "big deal".  

His wRC+ is only 107 this year. Yeah I’d like to see better plate discipline. By contrast, Stewart and Sisco were 157 and 133 in AAA this year. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, makoman said:

His wRC+ is only 107 this year. Yeah I’d like to see better plate discipline. By contrast, Stewart and Sisco were 157 and 133 in AAA this year. 

He's two years younger than Sisco and three years younger than Stewart.  Sisco and Stewart were both repeating AAA.

[makoman]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's two years younger than Sisco and three years younger than Stewart.  Sisco and Stewart were both repeating AAA.

No I know. Wasn’t really meaning to compare them (even though I did) as much as say what he’s doing isn’t super special in this new Norfolk environment. Age def matters though. 

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As a one dimensional player whose one dimension is not great, I don't get Mountcastle at #2.  The bat isn't "special" and the plate discipline is abysmal.  Give me Hays and Diaz before Mountcastle.  Mountcastle has an .850 OPS in increased offensive atmosphere in AAA this year.  As a 1B whose aggressiveness will be exploited in the majors I say "big deal".  

Hays has the same limits at the plate that Mountcastle does.  Both have sub-five percent walk rates, although Mountcastle has shown the better ability to hit for average.  

I rate them about even.  Hays has a better defensive profile, while Mountcastle likely has a better bat.  If Mountcastle can become a competent LF that will improve his outlook.  You may also have to consider the injury factor with Hays.  

[sportsfan8703]

They updated this a few weeks ago. They’ll update it again pretty soon and add the new draftees. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Diaz fall out the top 100. 

[Three Run Homer]

Ryan McKenna still at number 7?   Makes me wonder if they're paying attention to this year's performance.  

[WalkWithElias]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

The bat is special enough.   It’s not like the O’s are full of top prospects.   I agree he’s a deeply flawed player.   

He's a deeply flawed player, yet still manages to not only be among the best O's prospects on all lists, but still one of the 75 best prospects in all of baseball.

Prospects are flawed. It's the rare exception there isn't a glaring issue that could lead to struggles at the next level. 

[makoman]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hays and Diaz both bring something to the table defensively.  Hays dominated in AA and looked great this ST.  Otherwise he's been injured and disappointing.  Diaz shows some semblance of plate discipline. The big thing Mountcastle has going for him is his age but he's got one level at a time and shown no progress at all in plate discipline.  Stewart and Sisco both had that going for them.  Mountcastle walks less than Adam Jones did in the minors.  He walks less than Jeff Francouer did in the minors.  It's hard to find a ML player who walked as much or less in the minors.  I like the chances of Hays and Diaz being ML regulars three years from now over Mountcastle.

Francoeur is an interesting comp. They played at the same level at the same age a lot (but 12 years apart, no clue how the leagues actually compare) and actually had similar production.

Age 19, A ball:

Franco: 30 BB in 567 PAs (5.3%). 769 OPS.

Mount: 25 BB in 489 PAs (5.1%). 745 OPS.

Age 20, A+:

Franco: 22 BB in 367 PAs (6.0%). 852 OPS.

Mount: 14 BB in 379 PAs (3.7%). 885 OPS.

Age 20, AA:

Franco: 0 BB in 76 PAs (0%). 539 OPS.

Mount: 3 BB in 159 PAs (1.9%). 605 OPS.

Age 21, AA:

Franco: 21 BB in 367 PAs (5.7%). 808 OPS. Plus 11 BB in 274 PAs (4.0%) w/ 884 OPS at MLB

Mount: 26 BB in 426 PAs (6.1%). 806 OPS.

Age 22:

Franco (MLB): 23 BB in 686 PAs (3.3%). 742 OPS.

Mount (AAA): 11 BB in 318 PAs (3.5%). 846 OPS.

 

Francoeur had a 12 year career but wasn't very valuable. Three years over 3.0 bWAR, but just 6.7 career (being -4.3 over his last 5 years didn't help that).