2019 Trade Deadline

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I agree entirely with the notion that wins later are worth more than wins now or in 2020, so I think 10 for 8 would make sense and 10 for 10 would be terrific.

However, I think there is some overvaluation of Mancini here (meaning in the thread i general, not from @Can_of_corn who I believe asked a hypothetical question.  He's a likable player, but he has a decent but unspectacular OBP, plays on the far right of the defensive spectrum where the Orioles have accumulated a logjam of players, and has negative defensive value.  What's worse, his OPS is his strongest category and most of that 1) comes from slugging and 2) isn't park adjusted.  WAA162 provides a better estimate of Mancini's value and by that metric, adding Trey to an otherwise .500 team makes them a .498 team over 162 games.  He's also 27 now, so it's optimistic to project future growth as an offensive player from this local high. 

Mancini is inexpensive, which I'd love in a sport like football with a hard cap, but I don't like the idea of his salary ballooning with arbitration on a bad team while his value depreciates and he holds a spot which could be used to test some of the logjam players.

He could play a supporting role on a champion, but not a lead role.

For the Orioles, I don't believe there is hope he'll do either before the sand runs out.

I still think he’s worth more to us than anywhere near what we would get in a return. We actually have a pretty decent lineup going right now and that will improve next year. Trey is a valuable leader for our young players to look up to. 

I 100% agree that 8 wins from 2022+ is worth more than 10 wins that Trey would provide over his time here. I’ll take that line of thinking with any player we have right now. 

We have 35 hours till the deadline. I think Villar goes. Givens at 75% goes. Fry could go because he’s murder on LHP. 

[sportsfan8703]

ERA by outing for Givens,

1P or less - 2.81 ERA

More than 1IP - 5.33 ERA

Hyde has rode him hard.

 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

ERA by outing for Givens,

1P or less - 2.81 ERA

More than 1IP - 5.33 ERA

Hyde has rode him hard.

 

And more importantly teams know those numbers and would use him different. 

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

And more importantly teams know those numbers and would use him different. 

Hyde uses Givens like he’s trying to win games, but then plays Davis. Hyde is out of touch. 

Let’s face it, Hyde and the FO, should have managed Givens’ workload to optimize his trade value.  

[eddie83]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Hyde uses Givens like he’s trying to win games, but then plays Davis. Hyde is out of touch. 

Let’s face it, Hyde and the FO, should have managed Givens’ workload to optimize his trade value.  

I don’t think this is a fair comparison. With how bad the bullpen has been and lack of track record I get why Hyde at times has pushed Givens.  

They are trying to win the games they can. 

[wildcard]

Here is my guess:

First point is that Elias does not care if a trade impacts this years team.   Its about the future.

Villar -   Faced with at 7m arbitration  salary next season the O's would like to dump his salary.    Return?  I.6m in salary relief this season and a prospect in the low minors.  Maybe a DSL prospect.  He probably goes.

Bundy -  Yes, he has value.   His ERA is 4.39 away from Camden Yards.  Away he has less hits than innings pitched.   44 hits in 53.1IP.  More strike outs that innings pitched  59.   And his WHIP away is 1.275 WHIP.   Contenders can use that kind of production.

Its all about the return.   Elias does not have to trade him.  He will need two good prospects in return.  Will he go? Its anyones guess.

Givens -  Givens like Bundy is better away from home.   3.86 ERA,  32k in 18.1 IP.  1.179 WHIP away.  He is not a closer but he does not need to be to be valuable to a contender.    Elias does not have to  trade him.  The return needs to be two good prospects.   Odds are he goes.

I don't see Elias trading anyone earning less than  600k a season.   He would have to be blown away to trade Mancini, Nunez, Alberto etc.  Its probably not going to happen.

This is mostly about trading away guys that will make a lot next season and getting a decent return.  

Cashner, Trumbo, Villar, Bundy, Givens could all be payroll reductions next season.

JMO

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, weams said:

Had to get rid of that money. That's a rebuild for a small market. Sorry to belabor

So looking at yesterdays rumor about Villar and the Cubs interest. Roch mentioned that there currently doesn't appear to be a match.

I think it's pretty obvious that Elias isn't on board with giving him away to dump payroll or some low end prospects.

otherwise, there obviously would be a match. Villar A's salary is not a big deal for a large market team like the Cubs. 

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is my guess:

First point is that Elias does not care if a trade impacts this years team.   Its about the future.

Villar -   Faced with at 7m arbitration  salary next season the O's would like to dump his salary.    Return?  I.6m in salary relief this season and a prospect in the low minors.  Maybe a DSL prospect.  He probably goes.

Bundy -  Yes, he has value.   His ERA is 4.39 away from Camden Yards.  Away he has less hits than innings pitched.   44 hits in 53.1IP.  More strike outs that innings pitched  59.   And his WHIP away is 1.275 WHIP.   Contenders can use that kind of production.

Its all about the return.   Elias does not have to trade him.  He will need two good prospects in return.  Will he go? Its anyones guess.

Givens -  Givens like Bundy is better away from home.   3.86 ERA,  32k in 18.1 IP.  1.179 WHIP away.  He is not a closer but he does not need to be to be valuable to a contender.    Elias does not have to  trade him.  The return needs to be two good prospects.   Odds are he goes.

I don't see Elias trading anyone earning less than  600k a season.   He would have to be blown away to trade Mancini, Nunez, Alberto etc.  Its probably not going to happen.

This is mostly about trading away guys that will make a lot next season and getting a decent return.  

Cashner, Trumbo, Villar, Bundy, Givens could all be payroll reductions next season.

JMO

See my previous post....I don't see Elias giving away our best players to cut salary

[weams]

10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

The MLB and MASN revenue are the principle ways the payroll is covered. 

And their share of MASN has to be worth at least 60-80 million per season.

After expenses? I do not believe it. How much can a TV station be worth for a tanking team?

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, weams said:

After expenses? I do not believe it. How much can a TV station be worth for a tanking team?

The MLB split is spread among all teams. That's millions of dollars per season even spread among 32 teams.

Say what you will about MASN ....but most of us pay for MASN every month regardless of how good the Orioles are. Plus the Nationals market also collects revenue for MASN. There at some point will be a payment due, but the y still will he keep the majority IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

The MLB split is spread among all teams. That's millions of dollars per season even spread among 32 teams.

Say what you will about MASN ....but most of us pay for MASN every month regardless of how good the Orioles are. Plus the Nationals market also collects revenue for MASN. There at some point will be a payment due, but the y still will he keep the majority IMO.

30 teams.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t think this is a fair comparison. With how bad the bullpen has been and lack of track record I get why Hyde at times has pushed Givens.  

They are trying to win the games they can. 

Win?  This team was built to lose 110ish games. 

Hyde is here to absorb the L total for the next 2-3 years until we can actually find a managerial candidate that wants this job. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Win?  This team was built to lose 110ish games. 

Hyde is here to absorb the L total for the next 2-3 years until we can actually find a managerial candidate that wants this job. 

Just because the team was not built to be competitive does not mean they are not trying to win each game.

[wildbillhiccup]

8 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Let me know which of the following is free:

 - spending more $ on international prospects in the last calendar year than in team history

 - spending $ on technology

 - building out an analytics group

 - hiring a real international director and more scouts

 - how about a draft pool $5M higher in 2019 ($13.8M v $8.8M in 2018)

 

Some new, incremental investments mentioned below:

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-will-be-fillling-multiple-jobs-for-19-c302094826

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/05/11/baltimore-orioles-have-lot-catching/sEG5BYeX60fje2biESMjLN/story.html

 

It looks to me that the Os payroll would be over $100M when including buried minor league $ and right up against $98M with Gausman and O'Day.  Semantics.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/

"Zero indication that the $ has been reinvested back into the team."  Really?  You really think in your heart of hearts that all of these investments get made by our ownership with $18M in additional costs with no incremental revenue on the 2019 financials.  You really think ownership could find a young, highly respected GM to hire WITHOUT showing an air-tight budget commitment to invest in top priorities.  The boat has left without you, bro.  Can't believe the above isn't crystal clear to a large majority of the board by now.

So we're really just talking about O'Day's salary since Gausman would have been traded either way. And you think the team is so strapped financially that they needed O'Day's $9M to cover everything you mentioned? The Orioles aren't a small market team, they're a mid-market team. They should have had the dollars to invest in everything you mentioned even with O'Day on the payroll. And a $100M payroll isn't what it used to be. It basically puts you in the bottom third in terms of payroll in this era.  

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So looking at yesterdays rumor about Villar and the Cubs interest. Roch mentioned that there currently doesn't appear to be a match.

I think it's pretty obvious that Elias isn't on board with giving him away to dump payroll or some low end prospects.

otherwise, there obviously would be a match. Villar A's salary is not a big deal for a large market team like the Cubs. 

There's probably even less interest now that there's news of Zobrist apparently wanting to come back. My guess is plan A for the Cubs is to give Ian Happ a shot to prove himself at 2B over the next few weeks. And if that doesn't work then plugging in Zobrist at 2B would be plan B.