Chirs Davis per Mike Elias

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember Brady isn't gone he's just lying in a dormant state.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What are the odds that a 24 year old putting up a 497 OPS can go to the minors for a year and come back and be a positive contributor for a ML team at 26?

The Martin experiment is a failure they just don't have anyone they can put in his place right now. 

The odds are very poor.   

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What are the odds that a 24 year old putting up a 497 OPS can go to the minors for a year and come back and be a positive contributor for a ML team at 26?

The Martin experiment is a failure they just don't have anyone they can put in his place right now. 

I have to give Luke credit on Martin.  He said he would never hit well enough to be major league player before the Rule 5 draft.  Even though a lot of national magazines had him rated highly.  I certainly didn’t expect a .400 OPS.  I think though you need to admit you were wrong and move on.  I am sure there is a player in Independent ball who would be better than Martin,  he is having a Davis 2018 type year.

[drjohnnyfeva]

So I think I have an "Everyman" example of this Chris Davis dilemma. 

We moved 3 years ago and bought all new appliances for the new house.  Highly rated stuff; real performers.  Paid a little extra, even, to get the slightly better rated models.

The HE washer was a particular "upgrade" we were proud of.  My wife and I had a 30 year old washer that had undergone some age-related repairs so we left it at the old place in favor or saving water and being more energy conscious with this 21st Century model.  Initially, the thing was great.  Knocked the cleaning of shirts and jeans and towels out of the park using less water and detergent.  Awesome.

Then she washed a couple comforters and some bed sheets over a couple months and it went 2-10 requiring the purchase of new items.  We stuck with it and it improved to 5-10 briefly, but then eventually sunk back to 2 or 3 for 10.  Complicating the issue was how damn good the thing looked in the laundry room.  I mean, it really tied the room together with the new drier and cabinetry. 

Yet after purchasing new sheets and comforters for the entire family 1.5 times over in 3 years, we ruled it a "sunk cost" and I found a $100 replacement on Craigslist that was a near replica of our old one. 

After a few months it's batting .990 and we are very pleased with our cheaper model.

The only difference in my example is that we were able to sell the new one for $300.  We recouped about 25% on our initial investment.  THAT won't happen with CD.

[atomic]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don't care if Broxton or Martin are cut. Martin isn't really blocking anyone though.  Neither is a drag on the payroll.  Hard to be too disappointed in a rule 5 and a waiver type guy making the minimum and not getting it done.  A little different for the guy making 23M a year.  

Why does his making more matter if you want him released.  It's not like you get the money back if you DFA him.  

[LA2]

6 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

So I think I have an "Everyman" example of this Chris Davis dilemma. 

We moved 3 years ago and bought all new appliances for the new house.  Highly rated stuff; real performers.  Paid a little extra, even, to get the slightly better rated models.

The HE washer was a particular "upgrade" we were proud of.  My wife and I had a 30 year old washer that had undergone some age-related repairs so we left it at the old place in favor or saving water and being more energy conscious with this 21st Century model.  Initially, the thing was great.  Knocked the cleaning of shirts and jeans and towels out of the park using less water and detergent.  Awesome.

Then she washed a couple comforters and some bed sheets over a couple months and it went 2-10 requiring the purchase of new items.  We stuck with it and it improved to 5-10 briefly, but then eventually sunk back to 2 or 3 for 10.  Complicating the issue was how damn good the thing looked in the laundry room.  I mean, it really tied the room together with the new drier and cabinetry. 

Yet after purchasing new sheets and comforters for the entire family 1.5 times over in 3 years, we ruled it a "sunk cost" and I found a $100 replacement on Craigslist that was a near replica of our old one. 

After a few months it's batting .990 and we are very pleased with our cheaper model.

The only difference in my example is that we were able to sell the new one for $300.  We recouped about 25% on our initial investment.  THAT won't happen with CD.

That's interesting. Sorry not to extend the analogy, but what was the make and model of the failed machine?

[LA2]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Why does his making more matter if you want him released.  It's not like you get the money back if you DFA him.  

Martin isn't blocking anyone. He can't hit, but I can easily imagine that anyone we replaced him with would be worse defensively at an important position, even though he also hasn't been as good with the glove as we had hoped for.

Ditto Broxton: as soon as he is seen as blocking someone, yeah people will want him gone as well. But that isn't now and, despite not being a premium CFer, he's better out there than anyone else at an important defensive position.

It could very well be the case within the next month or two that Davis is, indeed, making it significantly more difficult to play and assess young players that could be part of an O's viable future. Some people think that it is already the case.

[InsideCoroner]

23 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember Brady isn't gone he's just lying in a dormant state.

So he’s simply gone into sideburnation? 

[drjohnnyfeva]

13 hours ago, LA2 said:

That's interesting. Sorry not to extend the analogy, but what was the make and model of the failed machine?

It was a Kenmore.  Only home appliance brand I've ever purchased.  It was the first model year, but I don't know the exact number.  Purchased 2016.  My father always cautioned first model year purchases.  I wish I could tell you that it was model# 10.000019 or -.215 or c-d .581

[TheDeau52]

I think he’s gone by May 2020. At that point, he’ll most likely be blocking someone, whether at DH or the roster in general. Getting Mancini to first base and out of right field improves our D and opens up a place to put Hays/Stewart. If Mountcaste comes up, he can DH.

[beervendor]

On 7/12/2019 at 12:00 PM, Gus said:

The money is lost either way they go.  He provides little offense.  My guess the Angelos brothers think they are protecting their father's image by hanging on to Davis.  To let him go, and admit their colossal mistake, is too hard on the collective family ego.  So they pray for a miracle.....

IMO the strongest justification for hanging onto Davis is for PR risk mitigation. As ugly as his contract has been for the team, it would be a giant PR disaster if he were to go to another team (for league min) and regain some or all of his slugging form. The national media and casual local fanbase would CRUCIFY the organization if this came to pass. It would be an embarrassment of Metsian proportions. He's already being paid, he's not blocking any serious prospect, and his negative production isn't costing any wins that matter. One could make the case that his 40-man spot is the biggest cost to keeping him on the team, but feels like a small price when measured against the prospect of seeing him hit 40 bombs for Oakland next year while cashing huge Oriole checks.

[LookinUp]

On 7/14/2019 at 12:53 AM, atomic said:

You do know we have two guys with OPS in the .400s. Davis OPS is 100 points higher than them. Really the obsession with Davis at this point has become obsurd.  Where all the threads calling for the release of Broxton and Martin. 

I don't want any of them gone until after the season. Get that #1 pick and then worry about playing young guys with upside on next year's roster.

With that said, I think it's a stretch to act like we have good alternatives to either Broxton or Martin. I guess you could put Villar at SS and Wilkerson at 2B, but Villar isn't really a SS and there's a good chance he'll be gone in two weeks. After him, you have to look to AA for Mason McCoy to find upside. Until two months ago, pretty much nobody except the really knowledgeable O's followers even knew McCoy existed.

If you cut Broxton, you essentially have to put a corner outfielder in CF. Many here would be fine with that, but I don't blame Elias for trying to put a decent defense behind his pitching staff. 

[Moose Milligan]

I can see Davis being here in 2020.  I really can.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I can see Davis being here in 2020.  I really can.

While I think most of Elias's quote is GM speak that we can't learn much from, the one aspect that DOES worry me is the inclusion of "he's under contract" which is a VERY Peter Angelos phrase. 

[mdbdotcom]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I can see Davis being here in 2020.  I really can.

I expect he will be unless his spot on the 40-man roster is needed to protect a legitimate prospect.