Sig Mejdal indicts the public advanced defensive metrics (except Statcast)

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Statcast is the new public standard IMO, with their route efficiency and catch difficulty metrics.

But now they need to come up with some metrics for infielders.    

[Tony-OH]

On 8/17/2019 at 6:31 PM, Frobby said:

weams will eat this up, and so will Tony.    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/using-the-eye-test-vs-defensive-metrics-for-richie-martin.html

Basically Sig says the advanced metrics don’t account for positioning and in the world of shifting aren’t very useful.   He exempts Statcast from that critique.  

Glad to hear him say it publically. I an't wait until infielder statcast information is released to the general public. That along with minor league trackman data (The Holy Grail of information for me) gets me excited about the future.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Sig, but maybe slow down on the smartest guy in the room talk until we aren’t the laughing stock of baseball. Heck, I could’ve drafted a bunch of 23 y o NCAA pitchers and stuck them in the GCL to dominate. 

Is that really what you think he and Elias did this year?

[Larry18]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Glad to hear him say it publically. I an't wait until infielder statcast information is released to the general public. That along with minor league trackman data (The Holy Grail of information for me) gets me excited about the future.

My understanding is Statcast/Trackman data is closed proprietary so the wait may be incredibly long for public release. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Sig, but maybe slow down on the smartest guy in the room talk until we aren’t the laughing stock of baseball. Heck, I could’ve drafted a bunch of 23 y o NCAA pitchers and stuck them in the GCL to dominate. 

Did you think being the smartest guy in the room would not make this current squad the laughing stock of baseball?  

[spiritof66]

It seems to me that the guy who presides over the Orioles' efforts to generate proprietary fielding data, assess the publicly available data, and figure out how to synthesize and use all the available data of both kinds in advising the Orioles should not be speaking publicly about what he thinks about, and how useful he finds, any of those components. 

If other people in positions comparable to Sig's have been doing that, I've missed it (or have forgotten it, always a strong possibility).

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

It seems to me that the guy who presides over the Orioles' efforts to generate proprietary fielding data, assess the publicly available data, and figure out how to synthesize and use all the available data of both kinds in advising the Orioles should not be speaking publicly about what he thinks about, and how useful he finds, any of those components. 

If other people in positions comparable to Sig's have been doing that, I've missed it (or have forgotten it, always a strong possibility).

I think this is probably Sabermetrics 101 for these guys.   I don’t think Sig is giving away state secrets here.   

[DirtyBird]

Sort of on the topic of defensive metrics - I think MLB should ban the note cards that every player is now using in the field..

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Sort of on the topic of defensive metrics - I think MLB should ban the note cards that every player is now using in the field..

Why?  So the bench coach can flail his arms around directing fielders between at bats?

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why?  So the bench coach can flail his arms around directing fielders between at bats?

Is there any other reason for a bench coach to be there?

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why?  So the bench coach can flail his arms around directing fielders between at bats?

If it hadn't been implemented in 1947 it's an affront to our dignity.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Larry18 said:

My understanding is Statcast/Trackman data is closed proprietary so the wait may be incredibly long for public release. 

I assume this is because not every organization provides the data, so there isn't equal access inside baseball?

Am I making that up or am I pulling a useful memory? 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Larry18 said:

My understanding is Statcast/Trackman data is closed proprietary so the wait may be incredibly long for public release. 

It is, but the data is being released on baseball savant for most things minus infielder data. I'm not sure what the process is currently on what can or can't be released or whether it's MLB's call or not, but believe the deal trackman has for minor league data is reportedly with each club vs MLB as a whole.

From what I understand, there is a follow on for Trackman that MLB is looking at going to in the near future, but I don't believe the plan includes the minor leagues.

I will say one thing, I'd pay a pretty good amount of money to have access to the Orioles minor league trackman data. I feel like with that data I'd be able to to put out much better prospect lists and more accurate scouting reports. 

I'm like a kid in a candy store when prospects I've been following make their major league debuts and I now can see whether the data backs up with my scouting eyes have seen, especially since 95% of my work is done off video and the camera angles can be tricky in a lot of minor league parks or just non existent like most of the Carolina League.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think this is probably Sabermetrics 101 for these guys.   I don’t think Sig is giving away state secrets here.   

It's pretty clear that Elias/Sig are very big on keeping the "State Secrets" just that. That's certainly understandable but I appreciate Sig at least talking about the current metrics and why they may not be as useful as they once were. 

Again, I don't think the current metrics are awful or take a plus infielder and show him to be a negative or vice versa, but I do think they were "what we had" and that statcast information will give us much more accurate assessment, just like they with outfielder and catcher assessments.

[jsbearr]

The issue with positioning has been known for a decade, first as stadium specific issues with outfield fences and then with shifting. Statcast negates a lot of that and the primary reason why MLB has not provided statistics for that is simply that it is a small team trying to do a large number of things and do them well.  It should also be noted that it is in Sig's position to obscure negative aspects by stating kernels of truth.

With available data, you can triangulate some things. We know that Astros, Dodgers, Orioles, Twins, Brewers, Rays, Marlins, DBacks, Yankees, and Pirates all shift >33% of the time in their infield.

Where do their SS line up with something like UZR/150?

Rojas (MIA) 17.2

Ahmed (AZ) 8.7

Adames (TB) 4.4

Correa (HOU) 0.8

Arcia (MIL) -4.2

Torres (NYY) -4.9

Seager (LAD) -7.2

Newman (PIT) -7.4

Polanco (MIN) -9.8

Martin (BAL) -16.9

When you look at these ten teams, you get a slightly negative skew by two runs or so.  It should also be noted that the Astros, Dodgers, and Orioles shift over 45% of the time.

While the older metrics have flaws, they generally will point you in the right direction and I do not exactly think positioning explains things unless the Orioles are utilizing a positioning scheme incredibly different and unique than other teams who shift a great deal.

 

Edit: Correct to >33% from <33%

Edited August 19, 2019 by jsbearr