Rule 5 thoughts

[7Mo]

Expound on the electric Wandisson Charles.

What holds Hever Bueno back?

If Cody Thomas and Buddy Reed haven't figured it out by now, why should we be able to fix them?

Steven Fuentes is described as "statistically dominant" and blah stuff. Not likely to translate at MLB??

Trevor Megill seems like a safe add but with limited ceiling??

Is it likely the O's are looking for 2-3 inning relievers? Not quite a starter profile but a guy who can hold stuff for 3 innings at a time? Maybe with the idea of using an opener?

[7Mo]

@Luke-OHSo when you said you'd be happy to answer any questions.....

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

@Luke-OHSo when you said you'd be happy to answer any questions.....

Maybe he isn't on call 24 hours a day.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Maybe he isn't on call 24 hours a day.

I know. I was joking. I appreciated him asking for questions. 

It just struck me as funny that he asked for questions over an hour ago and he hasn't posted since. Maybe I asked bad questions.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

You've mentioned the difference in taking a guy who can fill in for the time being as opposed to a guy who has ceiling, a developmental guy. 

There's talk on the board about Hechevarria. You've described Alemais as an outstanding glove who isn't likely to hit much. Without knowing, they seem pretty similar, Alemais likely to be a superior defender.

You're inviting questions about specific prospects and I appreciate that. But my questions, for now, are: 1- are Hechevarria and Alemais pretty similar and if so 2- why use a Rule 5 pick on Alemais if you can get basically the same guy (Hech) on the open market?

It seems likely there will be a bullpen guy available that might help the O's in 2020 but isn't a long term difference maker. And in the same vein as above, there should be some free agents that do the same.

I'm looking forward to your list and will have questions then but I'd guess my focus is on who has value over and above available free agents. 

Going one step further, you've talked about the Angels 4 return as guys with tools for the Holt staff to develop. Would you think those tools likely telegraph who the O's focus on in the Rule 5?

Good question, the main reason to pick Alemais rather than Hechevarria is you have nothing to lose and Alemais will cost 655K (100K Rule 5 fee + league min) and is controllable for 6 years if he works out while Hechevarria might get similar to the 3M he got last year and if he's good, he's either more expensive or gone.

That said Alemais isn't at the top of my list or particularly close, I just think he's worth thinking about and I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere else. 

For the Holt question, it could either be guys that fit the same profile that I mentioned earlier. So vertical spin angle, hop on the fastball, high 3/4 arm slot, above average spin. Or it could be guys that have some fixable pitch arsenal things, like a guy whose curveball and slider are too similar, or whose curveball doesn't mirror fastball spin, or who unintentionally cuts his fastball. 

Guys that fit the profile include Joe Barlow, Trevor Megill, Brandon Bailey, Hever Bueno, Jordan Sheffield, Bryan Baker, Wladimir Pinto, Scott Engler, Kevin McCanna in a rough order of preference. Some of these guys aren't legit options, I'm just pulling all the guys I have notes on fitting that profile. 

Guys that have some correctable flaws include (this is a limited list because I don't have time to extensively study video on every player) in no particular order Luke Bachar (more seperation of breaking balls), Daniel Alvarez (fastball spin angle), Cam Hill (spin efficiency of the fastball), Eric Marinez (release consistency), Andrew Lee (cuts his fastball), Kurt Hoekstra (cuts his fastball). 

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Good question, the main reason to pick Alemais rather than Hechevarria is you have nothing to lose and Alemais will cost 655K (100K Rule 5 fee + league min) and is controllable for 6 years if he works out while Hechevarria might get similar to the 3M he got last year and if he's good, he's either more expensive or gone.

That said Alemais isn't at the top of my list of particularly close, I just think he's worth thinking about and I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere else. 

For the Holt question, it could either be guys that fit the same profile that I mentioned earlier. So vertical spin angle, hop on the fastball, high 3/4 arm slot, above average spin. Or it could be guys that have some fixable pitch arsenal things, like a guy whose curveball and slider are too similar, or whose curveball doesn't mirror fastball spin, or who unintentionally cuts his fastball. 

Guys that fit the profile include Joe Barlow, Trevor Megill, Brandon Bailey, Hever Bueno, Jordan Sheffield, Bryan Baker, Wladimir Pinto, Scott Engler, Kevin McCanna in a rough order of preference. Some of these guys aren't legit options, I'm just pulling all the guys I have notes on fitting that profile. 

Guys that have some correctable flaws include (this is a limited list because I don't have time to extensively study video on every player) in no particular order Luke Bachar (more seperation of breaking balls), Daniel Alvarez (fastball spin angle), Cam Hill (spin efficiency of the fastball), Eric Marinez (release consistency), Andrew Lee (cuts his fastball), Kurt Hoekstra (cuts his fastball). 

Excellent. Thanks for the detailed response.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Excellent. Thanks for the detailed response.

I'll get to the other questions when I get a chance. I appreciate good questions, I have done so much research that it's good to get some of that info out. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I'll get to the other questions when I get a chance. I appreciate good questions, I have done so much research that it's get to get some of that info out. 

There's a lot of good stuff in your post. I'll look forward to the rest. Thanks.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Expound on the electric Wandisson Charles.

What holds Hever Bueno back?

If Cody Thomas and Buddy Reed haven't figured it out by now, why should we be able to fix them?

Steven Fuentes is described as "statistically dominant" and blah stuff. Not likely to translate at MLB??

Trevor Megill seems like a safe add but with limited ceiling??

Is it likely the O's are looking for 2-3 inning relievers? Not quite a starter profile but a guy who can hold stuff for 3 innings at a time? Maybe with the idea of using an opener?

Wandisson Charles is 6'6" with a loose, quick arm and has a fastball that sits 99-101mph. His offspeed stuff isn't consistent yet, but both the slider and the changeup will flash. He's got the most athletic actions of any of the available 100mph types. Command is below average, but I think strikethrowing will improve.  He was 22 for the entire 2019 season and had a 2.89 ERA and 13.4 K/9.

Hever Bueno has dealt with injuries and missed all of 2018 with TJS, so this was his first healthy pro season and he sat 96-99 t100 with a nasty curveball. Control/command not back yet, but improved as the year went on. 

Buddy Reed's value is defense and baserunning, I think it's unlikely that the bat turns into much, but if it does, there is raw power, so it's kind of a lottery ticket. Cody Thomas is a bet on bat speed and athleticism, he was a two sport athlete so he could be a late bloomer. It's like poor man's Cody Bellinger if the bat control can tick up a little bit. 

Steven Fuentes, hard to tell how it will translate, a RHP who only sits 90-94 isn't exciting, but he gets good sink and locates well. The slider probably needs to tick up for a backend rotation role. 

WIth Megill, there isn't a ton of velocity or a dominant out pitch, so you are looking at middle relief

I'm not sure what the Orioles are looking for, when my rankings come out, they aren't rankings of best guys for the Orioles, just best overall. 

 

[7Mo]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Wandisson Charles is 6'6" with a loose, quick arm and has a fastball that sits 99-101mph. His offspeed stuff isn't consistent yet, but both the slider and the changeup will flash. He's got the most athletic actions of any of the available 100mph types. Command is below average, but I think strikethrowing will improve.  He was 22 for the entire 2019 season and had a 2.89 ERA and 13.4 K/9.

Hever Bueno has dealt with injuries and missed all of 2018 with TJS, so this was his first healthy pro season and he sat 96-99 t100 with a nasty curveball. Control/command not back yet, but improved as the year went on. 

Buddy Reed's value is defense and baserunning, I think it's unlikely that the bat turns into much, but if it does, there is raw power, so it's kind of a lottery ticket. Cody Thomas is a bet on bat speed and athleticism, he was a two sport athlete so he could be a late bloomer. It's like poor man's Cody Bellinger if the bat control can tick up a little bit. 

Steven Fuentes, hard to tell how it will translate, a RHP who only sits 90-94 isn't exciting, but he gets good sink and locates well. The slider probably needs to tick up for a backend rotation role. 

WIth Megill, there isn't a ton of velocity or a dominant out pitch, so you are looking at middle relief

I'm not sure what the Orioles are looking for, when my rankings come out, they aren't rankings of best guys for the Orioles, just best overall. 

 

Thank you. Much appreciated.

[7Mo]

On 11/24/2019 at 11:23 PM, Aristotelian said:

How about Jose Rojas? 7% walk rate and .900 OPS at AAA. 11 errors between 2B and 3B but did I mention .900 OPS?

JJ Cooper likes Rojas.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/12/a-look-at-the-upcoming-rule-5-draft-with-baseball-americas-jj-cooper.html

[interloper]

What happened to that guy we picked in the minor league phase last year who threw 100 and had a Twitter video? Blanking on the name.

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

What happened to that guy we picked in the minor league phase last year who threw 100 and had a Twitter video? Blanking on the name.

Taylor Grover? Arm surgery I think. He elected free agency Nov 4. 

[7Mo]

11 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Guys that fit the profile include Joe Barlow, Trevor Megill, Brandon Bailey, Hever Bueno, Jordan Sheffield, Bryan Baker, Wladimir Pinto, Scott Engler, Kevin McCanna in a rough order of preference. Some of these guys aren't legit options, I'm just pulling all the guys I have notes on fitting that profile. 

 

Regarding Megill, I ran across this June 2019 article. I guess they're still projecting him as a 7th inning reliever but wanted to see if the slider affected your view at all:

Even after honing his slider with a new grip suggested by agent Lenny Strelitz, the 25-year-old Megill was unsure of what he had until pitching coordinator Eric Junge pulled him aside early in spring training.

“There were a lot of swings and misses,” Megill said. “Our coordinator came up to me … and said it was the first time he’d seen it as a swing-and-miss pitch. That was a confidence boost because I never saw it as that much of a pitch.”

This year, a biting, 84-86 mph slider as the out-pitch off a four-seamer that’s been up to 96 mph had helped Megill hold hitters to a .194/.239/.210 batting line entering Thursday. His 12-to-6 curveball also remains part of a mix that could put Megill on the radar of a major league staff desperate for consistency out of its middle relief arms.

“I know it’s reachable,” said Megill, who has an 0.90 ERA and a 26-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20 1/3 innings this season. “I just have to keep plugging and wait my turn.”

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-06-13/padres-minor-league-report-trevor-megill-ty-france

 

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Good question, the main reason to pick Alemais rather than Hechevarria is you have nothing to lose and Alemais will cost 655K (100K Rule 5 fee + league min) and is controllable for 6 years if he works out while Hechevarria might get similar to the 3M he got last year and if he's good, he's either more expensive or gone.

That said Alemais isn't at the top of my list or particularly close, I just think he's worth thinking about and I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere else. 

For the Holt question, it could either be guys that fit the same profile that I mentioned earlier. So vertical spin angle, hop on the fastball, high 3/4 arm slot, above average spin. Or it could be guys that have some fixable pitch arsenal things, like a guy whose curveball and slider are too similar, or whose curveball doesn't mirror fastball spin, or who unintentionally cuts his fastball. 

Guys that fit the profile include Joe Barlow, Trevor Megill, Brandon Bailey, Hever Bueno, Jordan Sheffield, Bryan Baker, Wladimir Pinto, Scott Engler, Kevin McCanna in a rough order of preference. Some of these guys aren't legit options, I'm just pulling all the guys I have notes on fitting that profile. 

Guys that have some correctable flaws include (this is a limited list because I don't have time to extensively study video on every player) in no particular order Luke Bachar (more seperation of breaking balls), Daniel Alvarez (fastball spin angle), Cam Hill (spin efficiency of the fastball), Eric Marinez (release consistency), Andrew Lee (cuts his fastball), Kurt Hoekstra (cuts his fastball). 

I'm looking at Alemais on baseball reference. .279/.348/.692 is not bad at AA in regards to average and OBP. SB / CS 16/9 . Only 21 XBH in 460 AB and 6 HR in a 1000 AB. So does he really have potential beyond a weak stick utility infielder? I'd rather they take a shot at Jose Rojas who has hit everywhere, has power 30+ Hrs this year, and only 10 errors in 550+ innings