Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[mdbdotcom]

Villar's rWAR since becoming a starter:

• 2016 - 3.9
• 2017 - 0.1
• 2018 - 2.7
• 2019 - 4.0

Letting him get a $7 million - $10 million contract in arbitration and hoping he has another big year so he can be traded at the deadline seems like too great a risk for me.

[gtown]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I don't think the National media is "crushing" the O's over the idea that they can flip him for a "significant" return at the deadline.

 

Devan Fink, Fangraphs: I see very little justification for Orioles cutting Jonathan Villar. He hit .274/.339/.453 with a 107 wRC+, was worth 10.5 BsR, and produced a total of 4 WAR. Probably won't repeat those numbers, but I still don't see an issue with paying him ~$10 million in arbitration. And, also, maybe you throw in some cash and trade him? Losing Villar for literally nothing seems less-than-ideal.

Eno Sarris, Fangraphs: Come on. Jonathan Villar is projected to be average in just about every facet of the game, and is only due ~$10 million next year. Orioles really couldn’t find a taker without putting him on waivers? The Padres were obviously looking. Nobody else? This sucks.

Alex Fast, MLB producer: Option A) Pay Villar $10.4 Mil and trade him mid-season Option B) Let Villar become a FA Struggling to see why option B is better.

Dan Connolly (to be fair, in a balanced piece): 

The other scenario we thought was a possibility heading into the offseason looks fully unrealistic now: That the Orioles would offer Villar arbitration, pay half that award in salary and trade him in July as a rental to get some minor-leaguers in return. That, of course, is gambling that Villar has another great campaign and further boosts his trade value.

That’s what is probably going to stick with fans the most. Why not roll the dice?

Grant McAuley, Braves radio: So, the Orioles are saying that not one of the other 29 teams in MLB would give them anything for Jonathan Villar, a 4.0 WAR player who doesn't turn 30 until 2021? Not an A-Ball flyer or even the dreaded bad contract/change of scenery swap? Nothing?! Not worth trying? Awful.
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That's not to mention the slew of reporters claiming the so-called lack of interest at $10M is evidence of collusion.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Larry18 said:

Don’t the Orioles have 7 days to rescind the waiver request? If so ,then why not wait to see if this is simply  a maneuver to gage interest in Villar prior to the Winter Meetings?

 

 

No. Because it's an outright waiver, it would be 48 hours. But because of the holiday, it's extended to Monday at 1:00. If no one claims, the O's then have until 8:00 Monday to reach agreement.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, gtown said:

Devan Fink, Fangraphs: I see very little justification for Orioles cutting Jonathan Villar. He hit .274/.339/.453 with a 107 wRC+, was worth 10.5 BsR, and produced a total of 4 WAR. Probably won't repeat those numbers, but I still don't see an issue with paying him ~$10 million in arbitration. And, also, maybe you throw in some cash and trade him? Losing Villar for literally nothing seems less-than-ideal.

Eno Sarris, Fangraphs: Come on. Jonathan Villar is projected to be average in just about every facet of the game, and is only due ~$10 million next year. Orioles really couldn’t find a taker without putting him on waivers? The Padres were obviously looking. Nobody else? This sucks.

Alex Fast, MLB producer: Option A) Pay Villar $10.4 Mil and trade him mid-season Option B) Let Villar become a FA Struggling to see why option B is better.

Dan Connolly (to be fair, in a balanced piece): 

The other scenario we thought was a possibility heading into the offseason looks fully unrealistic now: That the Orioles would offer Villar arbitration, pay half that award in salary and trade him in July as a rental to get some minor-leaguers in return. That, of course, is gambling that Villar has another great campaign and further boosts his trade value.

That’s what is probably going to stick with fans the most. Why not roll the dice?

Grant McAuley, Braves radio: So, the Orioles are saying that not one of the other 29 teams in MLB would give them anything for Jonathan Villar, a 4.0 WAR player who doesn't turn 30 until 2021? Not an A-Ball flyer or even the dreaded bad contract/change of scenery swap? Nothing?! Not worth trying? Awful.
---------------------
That's not to mention the slew of reporters claiming the so-called lack of interest at $10M is evidence of collusion.

And I wouldn't call any of the above "crushing" the O's over not tendering him in an effort to trade him at the deadline.

[7Mo]

11 minutes ago, gtown said:

Devan Fink, Fangraphs: I see very little justification for Orioles cutting Jonathan Villar. He hit .274/.339/.453 with a 107 wRC+, was worth 10.5 BsR, and produced a total of 4 WAR. Probably won't repeat those numbers, but I still don't see an issue with paying him ~$10 million in arbitration. And, also, maybe you throw in some cash and trade him? Losing Villar for literally nothing seems less-than-ideal.

Eno Sarris, Fangraphs: Come on. Jonathan Villar is projected to be average in just about every facet of the game, and is only due ~$10 million next year. Orioles really couldn’t find a taker without putting him on waivers? The Padres were obviously looking. Nobody else? This sucks.

Alex Fast, MLB producer: Option A) Pay Villar $10.4 Mil and trade him mid-season Option B) Let Villar become a FA Struggling to see why option B is better.

Dan Connolly (to be fair, in a balanced piece): 

The other scenario we thought was a possibility heading into the offseason looks fully unrealistic now: That the Orioles would offer Villar arbitration, pay half that award in salary and trade him in July as a rental to get some minor-leaguers in return. That, of course, is gambling that Villar has another great campaign and further boosts his trade value.

That’s what is probably going to stick with fans the most. Why not roll the dice?

Grant McAuley, Braves radio: So, the Orioles are saying that not one of the other 29 teams in MLB would give them anything for Jonathan Villar, a 4.0 WAR player who doesn't turn 30 until 2021? Not an A-Ball flyer or even the dreaded bad contract/change of scenery swap? Nothing?! Not worth trying? Awful.
---------------------
That's not to mention the slew of reporters claiming the so-called lack of interest at $10M is evidence of collusion.

Nice post. Thanks. 

But the simple answer to me is I just can't believe Elias is turning down any reasonable offer. 

Your last line mentions "collusion". Not sure I agree with that but I think it's fair to say teams are looking at his projected value, not what he's done in the past.

[Roll Tide]

54 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Villar's rWAR since becoming a starter:

• 2016 - 3.9
• 2017 - 0.1
• 2018 - 2.7
• 2019 - 4.0

Letting him get a $7 million - $10 million contract in arbitration and hoping he has another big year so he can be traded at the deadline seems like too great a risk for me.

3.9 + .1 + 2.7 + 4.0 = 10.7 is 2.67 WAR ... According to Hoyle 1 WAR is worth about $8 million. So how on earth is 7 - 10 million for 1 season too big of a risk? Especially for a team with a sub $80 million payroll?

If he just produces his average he's easily worth that! Id you throw out the .1 season he's worth 3.5. In either case he has surplus value. He's 29 this coming season not 34 so he's not likely to decline.

He could possibly be dealt at the deadline. If he does regress you've lost a few million over what he played for this year.

[Roll Tide]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I wouldn't call any of the above "crushing" the O's over not tendering him in an effort to trade him at the deadline.

The writers all seem to be questioning the move. But I guess you could argue "Crushing" is an exaggeration.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The writers all seem to be questioning the move. But I guess you could argue "Crushing" is an exaggeration.

If Elias gets a trade worked out by Monday, which I still believe is possible, will those writers change their tune?

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

If Elias gets a trade worked out by Monday, which I still believe is possible, will those writers change their tune?

I'd imagine many will and perhaps I will also! I have been his harshest critic on this site.

But, I still won't think it was worth the risk of losing him for nothing. And thats what I will say when/if guys say that to me Monday evening.

Look, I hope it works out and we get good value. If not and he perhaps goes unclaimed signs a 2-3 year extension I'd also be happy!

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I almost never post here anymore (still lurk though) but I just found out about this move and was kind of enraged, so I came here and read through the first few pages and didn't see anyone mention this, so here we go:

Why couldn't we have tendered Villar a contract, and upon settling on an amount, shopped to him to teams while offering to pay a few million of it so that we might have actually gotten SOMETHING of value for our 28 year old second baseman coming off of a 4 WAR season?

I get that no one wanted him at $10+ million, but I feel like someone would have given up something for him at $5-7 million. Plus, IIRC, you can release arb players before the end of spring training and only be on the hook for a fraction of the total amount, so even if a taker still couldn't be found, it wouldn't have cost us anywhere close to the full $10 million and it would at least LOOK like ownership and the FO give a flying frig.

Am I crazy for thinking this?

[7Mo]

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I almost never post here anymore (still lurk though) but I just found out about this move and was kind of enraged, so I came here and read through the first few pages and didn't see anyone mention this, so here we go:

Why couldn't we have tendered Villar a contract, and upon settling on an amount, shopped to him to teams while offering to pay a few million of it so that we might have actually gotten SOMETHING of value for our 28 year old second baseman coming off of a 4 WAR season?

I get that no one wanted him at $10+ million, but I feel like someone would have given up something for him at $5-7 million. Plus, IIRC, you can release arb players before the end of spring training and only be on the hook for a fraction of the total amount, so even if a taker still couldn't be found, it wouldn't have cost us anywhere close to the full $10 million and it would at least LOOK like ownership and the FO give a flying frig.

Am I crazy for thinking this?

Right on both accounts as far as I know.

On the first idea, I have no inside info but I'd guess Villar's agent said no to a lesser figure.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Right on both accounts as far as I know.

On the first idea, I have no inside info but I'd guess Villar's agent said no to a lesser figure.

I wasn't saying that he would accept a lower amount, but rather that if we offered to pay a few million of his contract, someone might give up something for him while paying the remaining $5-7 million of the $10ish million total.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I wasn't saying that he would accept a lower amount, but rather that if we offered to pay a few million of his contract, someone might give up something for him while paying the remaining $5-7 million of the $10ish million total.

I think that's a valid question that I wish I knew the answer to.

I hope we'd consider that route, not just with Villar but with any trade to add prospect value.

[WillyM]

I would like at this point to wish a happy birthday to Elio Prado, who turns 18 years old today.

Surely everyone remembers who Elio Prado is, right?  He's one of the two guys the Orioles got for Andrew Cashner.  (The other one, Noelberth Romero, will celebrate his 18th birthday next Thursday.)

When the Orioles traded Cashner, he was 9-3 for a team that had lost more than twice as many games as it had won.  I knew that the Orioles were expected to start trading productive veterans for prospects, but I was sort of hoping that a guy as productive as Cashner could be traded for the kind of players who might be major league ready within a year or two - or three at the most.  It was disappointing to see Cashner traded for guys who are probably at least four to six years from being able to contribute at the major league level.

I can't say it makes me feel good to hear that the Orioles may not even get that good a return for Villar.

[weams]

6 hours ago, gtown said:

How does this possibly fit that formula. Yes, I get it, small market, rebuild. I'm on board with that. What matters to such a team? Young MLB talent, prospects and tradeable assets. 

How does putting $10 million in the owners' pockets fit that formula? You're giving away a tradeable asset, one who could reasonably have significant value to a contender in July.

I disagree. He would not have significant value even if he produced at the level of 2019. He might bring back a prospect. That prospect might pan out. A lot of variables. No sure thing either way. You could potential sign a three million dollar free agent that might bring back more of a return.