Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[atomic]

 

4 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I have to disagree here.

If you are basing it on his glove and arm, he can play 3rd just fine and is slightly above passable at 2nd. He has a good arm (enough for a "line to line" throw from 3rd to 1st that doesn't have that "lollipop" effect) and has good reaction (see: diving stop vs. Nationals, "run and throw" vs. Braves) and range at 2nd (running/sliding over the shoulder catch vs. Astros.) That's just at the MLB level. He had several plays at Bowie when he held down 3rd that would have made "Top Plays" for that day.

His bat is the reason he is a utility guy. His glove and arm play well. 

I watched him play 3rd in 2018.  There were balls hit right next to him that he didn't get to.  Any average third baseman would have made the plays.   I don't question his arm.  His range and reaction is what I question.  I am sure if he is playing everyday people will come around to my opinion.  

I don't see why if we are going to be awful anyway we can't have good defensive players. I would rather have a guy who can't hit but can play defense than a guy who can hit and can't field even league average defense.  It isn't fair to the pitchers.  

Also wasn't Wilkerson removed from the 40 man and no one took him?  I could be mistaken but I thought that happened. 

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

The reason was that we didn't have enough good outfielders and had a 4 WAR 2nd baseman. He was bad in the outfield. I am not a fan of Wilkerson, but a Wilkerson/Alberto platoon at second makes the most sense to me for this coming year.

I don't agree with you but if those guys are playing 2nd who is playing short? 

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Enjoy Terror said:

It’s funny how the italicized phrase in his post is the most contentious part of it.

No Kid for Pro! No Kid for Pro!

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

And we chose to bring him into a game for a save when we had an "available" Tanner Scott.  I'd say that makes Tanner Scott the 40th man.  haha

Having watched Scott a lot in the Minors too...

I would trust Wilkerson's control over Scott's.

I would trust @scOtt control over Scott's, too...

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, atomic said:

I have seen him play games in the infield.  He was just terrible in the games in 2018 at third and the games last year at second.  I have seen him play maybe 6 games in the infield but I don't think I need to see more.  There is a reason he was playing mostly in the outfield last season.  

 

I'm glad Luke chimed in, I know he's seen a lot of Wilkerson and I trust his opinion.  I don't trust six games of observation on pretty much anything short of David Wells trying to play shortstop.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If MLB as a whole thought it was a fair market salary for him the O's would have received a stronger return on the trade.

Can I ask what you do for a living? If you feel appropriate please advise and if not I totally understand.

In any business negotiations you have strengths are weaknesses in your bargaining position.
 

Here is a no baseball related scenario.... 

You want to sell your 2018 Chevy Silverado because you no longer want to make the $800 per month payment (since you had a child and can no longer afford it in your budget)

You clean it up and advertise all the features , point out the low mileage and ratings from JD Power compared to competitors models.

You also provide a Carfax that shows the maintenance and no accident history.

...................................,...........................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

In your Autotrader ad you highlight all of the information above.

You are sure that the truck will be easy to sell based on the condition and performance.

In your advertisement you also disclose that You owe $17500 on your loan and on December 2nd that GMAC is going to repossess the truck due to that fact that you can’t pay the pass due balance to bring the account into good standing.

How do you think that information would effect your return?

Why would a buyer pay you anything more than the amount owed on the truck and perhaps a slight markup?

Whay leverage do you think you would have the Friday before it was due to be repossessed?

 

Now back to baseball
 

Strengths

Villars 4 WAR season (and also 2.7 the prior season)

His age 28 in his prime 

Short term commitment for a buyer 

Weaknesses

Teams no you aren’t going to him since it was disclosed 

Time to get a deal hurts your position 
 

The possibility of getting him for nothing if he clears waivers and is granted free agency 

 

Elias told everyone through the media that he wasn’t going to tender him. The only thing that recovers the lost leverage was by actually rendering him a contract/Arb process.

So the Marlins gave up a marginal prospect  to get him before his release/nontender. 
 

They now have to get him under contract or go through the process of arbitration. But at very least he’s under their control. It’s not consequential to the Orioles but they probably pay him and then trade him at the deadline for more than they gave up.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

I don't agree with you but if those guys are playing 2nd who is playing short? 

Probably someone not currently in the organization.

Or, if as you suggest Elias is trying to destroy the team, then it'll probably be Pedro Severino.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

In your advertisement you also disclose that You owe $17500 on your loan and on December 2nd that GMAC is going to repossess the truck due to that fact that you can’t pay the pass due balance to bring the account into good standing.

How do you think that information would effect your return?

Why would a buyer pay you anything more than the amount owed on the truck and perhaps a slight markup?

Whay leverage do you think you would have the Friday before it was due to be repossessed?

 

If it's a 25 thousand dollar truck I should get multiple folks interested in it and should be able to get 20K or so for it from one of them.  That leaves a nice margin for the person buying the truck.

If it's a 17 thousand dollar truck I'll be lucky to get someone to take over the payments.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You clean it up and advertise all the features , point out the low mileage and ratings from JD Power compared to competitors models.

Ooohh... the Orioles need to start an advertising campaign touting all the major awards the team has been getting.  We slip JD Power a little cash and suddenly the Orioles are the Best Small/Mid-Market Baseball Team in the AL East, with a trophy to back it up with a certificate signed by JD Power's heirs.  We get some real people (not actors!) to talk about how awesome the Orioles are.  One of them would surely say they have a relative who roots for the Yankees, but can't believe how much better these Orioles are once you see them in person with a motivational speaker there to point out the differences.  Then the real people's (not actors!) grandma comes out of the door by the RF wall and everyone starts crying and the Orioles are awesome.

[MurphDogg]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

I don't agree with you but if those guys are playing 2nd who is playing short? 

That is as relevant a question as asking who is pitching if those guys are playing second. 

Someone else. Either Martin or someone not in the organization. 

[Luke-OH]

30 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I have to disagree here.

If you are basing it on his glove and arm, he can play 3rd just fine and is slightly above passable at 2nd. He has a good arm (enough for a "line to line" throw from 3rd to 1st that doesn't have that "lollipop" effect) and has good reaction (see: diving stop vs. Nationals, "run and throw" vs. Braves) and range at 2nd (running/sliding over the shoulder catch vs. Astros.) That's just at the MLB level. He had several plays at Bowie when he held down 3rd that would have made "Top Plays" for that day.

His bat is the reason he is a utility guy. His glove and arm play well. 

He was a 25+% below league average hitter and I don’t think there is much if any upside there. He’ll make a flashy play but doesn’t have the range or hands to add value defensively in the infield. Maybe the OF will improve with reps, but his routes and instincts were an adventure in 2019.

I’m not a Wilkerson hater, I believe I was actually the first person to mention him as more than an org guy. I just think up and down depth guy is his role. 

Actually, that brings up a good point, when I highlight a player that is generally viewed as an org guy that I think is better than that, that doesn’t mean I think they are an everyday player or even a good role player unless I specifically say that.

Wilkerson is a guy that I thought was better than a org guy (he was) but people put more lofty expectations on him for some reason. Mason McCoy is similar, I mentioned him after getting drafted that he was more than an org guy, but this year (especially early in the season) he’s gotten inflated expectations without much of a real profile change. Up and down depth with a utility ceiling is a good outcome for some guys. Wilkerson doesn’t look like he’s going to hit his ceiling, as is the case with most prospects.

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

That is as relevant a question as asking who is pitching if those guys are playing second. 

Someone else. Either Martin or someone not in the organization. 

Pretty relevant as who is playing second.  Villar played 73 games at Shortstop last year. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d quibble with several of your points here, while agreeing with your overall point that the Orioles probably turned a very healthy profit in 2019.    My quibbles are:

1.   The $59 mm/yr in rights fees are what the RSDC panel awarded, but the part contested by MASN hasn’t been paid yet while the court challenges are still pending.    If/when it eventually gets paid, it will be an extra $95 mm or so to the O’s for 2012-16.     But, it means the O’s 75/80% ownership of MASN will be less valuable by about $150 mm, so a net loss to the Orioles.    

2.   Forbes reported the O’s 2018 revenues at $251 mm.    That includes the national TV money, the MASN rights fees, gate receipts and whatever else.    The only thing it should exclude are the O’s share of MASN’s profits, which as mentioned, are in flux due to the  arbitration and court proceedings; and whatever additional rights fees MASN has to pay.   

3.    The payroll figure I’ve seen for 2019 was $83.6 mm, not $70 mm.    Because of benefits, the costs of the players are actually higher.   For example, in 2018 Bb-ref pegged payroll at $141 mm but Forbes pegged “player costs” at $161 mm due to benefits.    So I’d guess the 2019 figure is probably $95 mm or so.

4.   Gate receipts will be down for 2019, roughly in proportion to the attendance drop.    Probably $8 mm in lost revenue there compared to the year before.    

5.   How much the team spent on non-payroll stuff is anybody’s guess.    I assume it went up a lot per Elias’ remarks when he took the job.    Whether “a lot” is $10 mm, $25 mm or $50 mm is a complete unknown (though I really doubt it’s $50 mm).     

All in all, there’s a lot we don’t know, but yes I think the team probably turned a good profit in 2019.     

1) I’d hope that the panel is objectively looking at the MASN figures. So the unpaid portion should be sitting in the bank collecting interest. This process has been no surprise to anyone since the Nationals have been fighting pretty much since day 1. 
 

2) I did not bring up the value of MASN. Nor do I care in this conversation. I’m not talking about profits just broadcast rights fees. The shares to broadcast games have to be there and I’m certain that the panel wouldnt award anymore than half of available revenue to be distributed for the exclusive rights to show their games.

3) We can argue payroll... but I’ll concede and drop my number to be stashed away by 10 million. I don’t know what access that Forbes has to proprietary info that would be needed for their report to be accurate. As I’ve stated before businesses write off everything but the kitchen sink in order to minimize their tax liability m. I’m confident that the Orioles are no different.

4) The gate implications are the result of poor performance, being viewed as cheap by its dans, and fan interest. I’m sure there will be a decrease as well. They just saved about $10.1 million on Villar versus the league minimum rule 5 guy who will replace him. 
 

6) I think 10 million in noNsalary expenses is more than a fair guess. If you have any proof at all that would make it 30-50 million dollars please share. You can buy a lot of $60,000 scouts and  I seriously doubt the salaries of the other executives he’s added are more than a couple million combined 

We agree about the good profit

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ooohh... the Orioles need to start an advertising campaign touting all the major awards the team has been getting.  We slip JD Power a little cash and suddenly the Orioles are the Best Small/Mid-Market Baseball Team in the AL East, with a trophy to back it up with a certificate signed by JD Power's heirs.  We get some real people (not actors!) to talk about how awesome the Orioles are.  One of them would surely say they have a relative who roots for the Yankees, but can't believe how much better these Orioles are once you see them in person with a motivational speaker there to point out the differences.  Then the real people's (not actors!) grandma comes out of the door by the RF wall and everyone starts crying and the Orioles are awesome.

Please go back and read the whole exchange.

It was an example about the loss of leverage in trading Villar.

based on Orioles announcement in the Sun that they weren’t going to tender him, the looming deadline, etc 

It really had nothing to do with JD Power and everything to do with trade leverage.

That was indeed Elias’ big mistake in this whole process and one that I hope he learned from.

 Thanks 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Please go back and read the whole exchange.

It was an example about the loss of leverage in trading Villar.

based on Orioles announcement in the Sun that they weren’t going to tender him, the looming deadline, etc 

It really had nothing to do with JD Power and everything to do with trade leverage.

That was indeed Elias’ big mistake in this whole process and one that I hope he learned from.

 Thanks 

If the O's are working the phones hard trying to trade a player 2 weeks before they have to offer him arbitration don't you think teams are going to notice?  I don't think much leverage was lost here, I think teams had a pretty good idea that the O's were not going to tie themselves to Villar for his arbitration price.