Luke's 2019 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[interloper]

I'm in the camp that thought McKenna was a bit of a whatever add to the 40-man. But we had room and I totally get why he was added. Hays is an injury risk, Stewart is coming off injury, Wilkerson is a relief pitcher, Mancini might be traded, and Mullins is a non-factor unless proven otherwise. And there's obviously still prospect upside there.

If I'm a team that needs a 4th or 5th OF and is rebuilding, I would consider taking McKenna. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Well not specifically to this case, but as a general rule:

It is better to have more bites at the apple; i.e. more prospects equal more players.

Not if they take up 40 man roster space.  It's not a big deal currently, but it will be.  Currently we don't have Mountcastle on the 40 man.  He'll be added at some point next season.  We'll also have to add 2 SP from outside the org currently, to the 40 man.  That's 3 spots right there.  Plus whatever other prospects we add during the season.  We'll have to protect more players next winter.  Admittedly, I am making the point against taking a draft and stash type of player, like I want us to take.  

[weams]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Not if they take up 40 man roster space.  It's not a big deal currently, but it will be.  Currently we don't have Mountcastle on the 40 man.  He'll be added at some point next season.  We'll also have to add 2 SP from outside the org currently, to the 40 man.  That's 3 spots right there.  Plus whatever other prospects we add during the season.  We'll have to protect more players next winter.  Admittedly, I am making the point against taking a draft and stash type of player, like I want us to take.  

Mountcastle is on the 40 man. 

[Pickles]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Not if they take up 40 man roster space.  It's not a big deal currently, but it will be.  Currently we don't have Mountcastle on the 40 man.  He'll be added at some point next season.  We'll also have to add 2 SP from outside the org currently, to the 40 man.  That's 3 spots right there.  Plus whatever other prospects we add during the season.  We'll have to protect more players next winter.  Admittedly, I am making the point against taking a draft and stash type of player, like I want us to take.  

There's opportunity costs of course.

I'm just saying a very general point: Just because we have one prosepct, doesn't mean we shouldn't take a similar one.

[weams]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Mountcastle is on the 40 man. 

http://m.orioles.mlb.com/bal/roster/40-man/

It's just that he is listed as an infielder. 

[Pheasants]

I hate to complain about a fantastic effort, but I wish Luke had put age and the last level they were at with each player.  For pitchers, I'm more interested in guys who were AAA so they can step in right away--McGill, Hill, Sharp.  Maybe a AA guy. Infielders I'm OK with projects or ready players--Hernandez or Fermin would be  possible.  I would not look at an outfielder at all.

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, weams said:

http://m.orioles.mlb.com/bal/roster/40-man/

It's just that he is listed as an infielder. 

It sure would be nice to be able to pencil him in at 2B for 6.5 seasons.  

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thanks, Luke.     I’d be curious where you would have placed the guys at the top of your list in the Orioles’ top 30, if they were in our organization.     I see that Cumberland is 43 here and Sedlock and Fenter are unlisted.    All three of those were in the OH top 30, so to me that implies that many on this list would be top 20 prospects if they were with the O’s, and some maybe in the top 10-15 range.  You’ve got 6 pitchers in your top 10 — any there that you’d rank up there with Akin or Kremer (understanding that they may be a little greener)?     As to the three outfielders, would you put them above Stower and McKenna?   Would Yonny Hernandez rank over Hernaiz and Hall?

Cumberland is ahead of Sedlock and Fenter on my personal list.

Reed would probably be in the mid 20s, Tom and Palacios would be around McKenna.

Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer. 

Fuentes would be around Wells.

Bailey, Sharp would probably be late teens or early 20s.

Yonny is more of a Rule 5 fit than a top prospect, I’d have him over Hernaiz just because of my uncertainty about Hernaiz (he’s lower on my personal list for that reason), but behind Hall (who has more chance to be a regular).

Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach. 

The relievers would be lower, all 20s or later, none better than a healthy Pop. It’s just relievers, and especially upper minors relievers are the easiest to carry.

[24fps]

Hever Bueno - now there's a great baseball name.  And a pitcher no less!

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Cumberland is ahead of Sedlock and Fenter on my personal list.

Reed would probably be in the mid 20s, Tom and Palacios would be around McKenna.

Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer. 

Fuentes would be around Wells.

Bailey, Sharp would probably be late teens or early 20s.

Yonny is more of a Rule 5 fit than a top prospect, I’d have him over Hernaiz just because of my uncertainty about Hernaiz (he’s lower on my personal list for that reason), but behind Hall (who has more chance to be a regular).

Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach. 

The relievers would be lower, all 20s or later, none better than a healthy Pop. It’s just relievers, and especially upper minors relievers are the easiest to carry.

 Very interesting stuff all around. Thanks for all of your hard work!

i was wondering what you may think about a comp of Buddy Reed and Cameron Maybin? For me, that may be Reed’s realistic ceiling. 

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Hever Bueno - now there's a great baseball name.  And a pitcher no less!

I thought Taylor Grover was too, but he’s no bueno.

[JMU_Birdfan]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I'd like to see us target the RP Wandisson Charles with our first pick, then take a flier on a long term project.  Whomever they think that project may be, but someone like Javier, Newton, etc....

I'm in the same boat. I think dream scenario would be Wandisson Charles in first round and then a prospect stash guy like fermin who can give you a richie martin presence this coming year.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer. 

* * *
Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach.

I think I’d take one if these two.   It probably wouldn’t be possible to stash both.    

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I hate to complain about a fantastic effort, but I wish Luke had put age and the last level they were at with each player.  For pitchers, I'm more interested in guys who were AAA so they can step in right away--McGill, Hill, Sharp.  Maybe a AA guy. Infielders I'm OK with projects or ready players--Hernandez or Fermin would be  possible.  I would not look at an outfielder at all.

Here are the pitchers with any 10+ innings of AAA experience.

Barlow

Megill

Clay

Hill

Robinson

Clouse

Brown

Misiewicz

[weams]

This was a massive undertaking and a wonderful gift to us @Luke-OH

Thank you.