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Give me your rosiest semi-realistic scenario for 2020

Frobby

By Frobby
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Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

I disagree with the notion that the rebuild hinges upon collecting #1 picks.

MurphDogg
MurphDogg

Yup, looking at the last 15 drafts from 2002 to 2016 (tough to judge the last three where players haven't reached the Majors yet), the #1 pick was only the most successful of the top 5 picks in 2007 (

DrungoHazewood
DrungoHazewood

It will be a positive thing for the rebuild if players like Akin, Mountcastle, Hayes establish themselves as solid major leaguers, and players like Means and Alberto prove their 2019 seasons weren't f

Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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43 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don't think this helps the idea that we were delusional.  

Everything seems obvious in hindsight.    An awful lot went wrong in 2018.   Was it obvious that the O’s would score 121 fewer runs than in 2017?    Was it obvious that Cobb and Cashner would not materially outperform Miley and Ubaldo?    Did we know the team would underperform their Pythag by 8 games?

I think anyone with a clear head understood that a number of things would have to go our way in order for the O’s to contend in 2018.    But I don’t think many saw a huge collapse coming.   In fact, in the OH preseason poll, the median prediction was 84-86 wins, with about 40% predicting higher than that.   Only one person predicted fewer than 71 wins.   
 

 

 

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linedrive Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

linedrive

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Like 2019, I'm realistically expecting a last place finish. However, if a miracle happens, we could have a worst-to-first season. But even to finish .500, a lot of things would have to go right. Truthfully, I'd be ecstatic if 5 or 6 players end up exceeding our expectations in 2020. Last year Means, Villar, Mancini and Alberto were the ones to exceed my expectation, and I'd be happy if two of them (Means and Mancini) were to repeat or improve upon last year. So, if we have 7 or 8 players finish with a strong season, along with trades to bring in more talent, and we don't have too many injuries, we could finish .500 or above. 

Aside from repeat seasons by Means and Mancini, I'd like to see Hays, Givens, Cobb, Akin, Harvey and Mountcastle have breakout seasons, and also see more improvement from Santander and Stewart. Maybe Brandon Bailey or Michael Rucker will make the opening day roster and one of them will be a bright spot for us, and perhaps we'll sign another free agent infielder or sign a pitcher off waivers who will pan out. I'm a little reserved about Alberto repeating; I'm sure the league will be better prepared for him next year, so he'll have to work hard to have another successful season. And I'm writing off Chris Davis, although I predict (if he remains on the team the entire season) he'll hit better than 179 and hit more than 12 home runs. 

 

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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10 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Yup, looking at the last 15 drafts from 2002 to 2016 (tough to judge the last three where players haven't reached the Majors yet), the #1 pick was only the most successful of the top 5 picks in 2007 (Price), 2009 (Strasburg), 2011 (Cole although Rendon at 6 has been better) and 2012 (Correa). You can argue 2010 (Harper over Machado) as well, but the bottom line is that #1 picks fail all the time. 

Punting on entire seasons to try to end up with the #1 pick instead of the #3-5 pick is insulting to the fans and probably isn't great for the development of the players on the Major League roster who are trying to win despite the wishes of management.

But the individual #2, 3, 4, etc picks fail more often than the #1 in the aggregate.  You're always better off picking higher.

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Yardball85 Hangout Veteran Council

Yardball85

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On 12/16/2019 at 5:09 PM, Frobby said:

Let’s start with this: I don’t want to hear about scenarios that are “rosy” because we end up with the no. 1 draft pick.   I’m only talking about scenarios where we win more games than expected.   What could that look like?

- Mountcastle’s debut is like Trey Mancini’s rookie year.

- Mancini and Alberto hold serve compared to 2020.

- Hays provides an .800ish OPS and solid defense in CF.

- Either Richie Martin equals or betters his second half offensive performance, or we find someone who does.     

- Means holds serve.

- Cobb stays relatively healthy and pitches decently.

- Akin is equal to Bundy.   

- We find someone with a pulse who outperforms Hess/Ynoa/Brooks/Straily

- Givens and Castro perform closer to career norms pre-2019.

Honestly, even if most of that happened, I think we’d only win about 65 games.   And obviously, it won’t all happen.



 

 

Santander claims the everyday job in right and puts up an OPS over .825.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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4 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

we win this game

This does conjure memories of the Why Not Orioles beating Clemens on Opening Day.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL198904030.shtml

Moose Milligan 2-for-2 off the bench in his Orioles debut, and Brian Holton with 0.553 WPA that day!

It also conjures memories of that year I happened to be riding DC Metro when Halladay's Phillies were playing the forgettable pre-Stras/Bryce Nats, and holy cow had I never seen a home team so little supported on Opening Day.  2020 might rival that.

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