Reality: Our 2009 Rotation

[Sports Guy]

Walker is not tradeable, I see what you are doing with the Marquis has a huge terrible contract, but I don't see the Cubs making that deal. No way, no how.

Why? Marquis is terrible and the Cubs save like 6 million.

Theriot has made SS his it looks like, so Cedeno has no place to play for them and they need to give us Cedeno to take on Marquis and how awful he is, as well as his contract.

[Moose Milligan]

Hoping and praying Cabrera isn't a part of the rotation next year. I'd really love that.

[Anonymous]

Hoping and praying Cabrera isn't a part of the rotation next year. I'd really love that.

Hope is good, prayer excessive, and love a beautiful many-splendored thing.

[whatdoiget000]

So what about Garland and Burnett?

[orioole28]

I don't know enough about the AA pitchers to have an opinion on this -- but I'm curious why you left out Hernandez.

Originally Posted by Sports Guy

Guthrie is an obvious lock.

I think Burnett is the most likely FA pitcher we sign(talking multiyear deal here) IF AM wants to go after him.

I also look for them to either sign a Lohse-type pitcher to a one year deal or make a deal like Walker for Cedeno and Marquis.

So...

Guthrie

Burnett

Marquis/FA for 1 year deal pitcher

2 of DCab, Olson, Penn, Bergesen, Berken, Liz

If you can throw DCab, Liz and Olson(all 3 having command issues) in, then sure can throw in Hernandez.

[mweb]

No doubt about that...If he has to have surgery, we may have seen the last of Albers for anything, much less starting next year.

Let's hope that doesn't happen though...he was vital to our early success and is a big piece of the future out of that pen.

His future was likely in the pen anyway.

But he was rather lucky. 49 innings, 26 k's, 22 bb's, FIP of 4.58, xFIP of 5.03. I'm not convinced Albers is destined to be a top notch reliever regardless of health.

[oriole from cal]

He is destined for the pen IMO...Command issues and inability to go deep into games.

In your opinion, where should the BB/9 be at? What is considered ave. or acceptible?

[NoVaO]

In your opinion, where should the BB/9 be at? What is considered ave. or acceptible?

His BB% is at 11.7% right now. Ideally, you would want to have the BB% around 9 or lower...maybe 8 or lower.

He did this last year with a 7.4 BB%, so there is some hope there.

I would agree though, if you're going to put Liz on that list, you might as well put Hernandez at least in the discussion as well. Liz has had better control this year though.

As for the 09 rotation, we should just take our lumps. Look for another Kyle Lohse-somebody with some talent but nobody taking a chance on and perhaps another stop-gap if necessary. The last three spots go to Guthrie, Cabrera, and one of the bunch of young pitchers we have in our system (who you could also use instead of a stop-gap or in place of Cabrera should he be dealt).

Avoid signing high priced pitchers until you know you are one or two or three pieces away from contending.

[Fairfax Bird]

Why? Marquis is terrible and the Cubs save like 6 million.

Theriot has made SS his it looks like, so Cedeno has no place to play for them and they need to give us Cedeno to take on Marquis and how awful he is, as well as his contract.

Lets see, Marquis is terrible (8-7 with 4.79 ERA and a 4.58 career ERA). That isn't terrible. It may be a little worse than league average. But not terrible. Cedeno is a 25 year old SS with a line of .279/.339/.370.

Walker is a 37 loogy with a 5.68 ERA and lefties are hitting.340 off of him and he makes 4.5 million, so the Cubs aren't saving very much money.

Not realistic.

[Ruzious]

Let's stop dreaming about all the high profile SPs. We won't be getting a single one let alone dream about getting all four.

1.) Guthrie

2.) Jim Johnson

3.) Kyle Lohse / Paul Byrd type player

4.) DCab

5.) Matt Albers/Troy Patton

8th inning - Chris Ray and 9th inning George Sherrill with Chris taking over mid way with us trading Sherrill at the deadline if we are out of contention. Ideally, I hope we lock Ray into a long term deal if he shows his old form. Let's not let a BJ Ryan situation re-occur where we make him the closer before his FA year and have him leave.

Our #1 target will be Mark Tex because our offense will not repeat the same run production without him. It'll be real sad if we don't land a big bat. As bad as Baez was in 2007, hopefully him and Ray will be a good replacement for Albers and Johnson. Once again, we'll be lucky to be .500 but if our rotation stays solid with young arms coming up. Maybe we can be the Rays of 2008 but in 2010.

That's a nightmare projection - partially because you're moving arguably the best reliever on the team to the rotation - where he'd most likely be ineffective. And counting on major innings from Albers and Patton a year after they've basically not pitched is not what I'd call based on reality.

[murrayfan420]

I don't think it's real wise to count on Albers for much of anything next year. As has been discussed ad nauseum around here, labrum injuries are no joke and hard to surgical repair.

This may sound perverse but I hope they find something wrong w Danny's arm. It would make me feel better about what has been a mystifying two year decline in velocity and overall stuff. If he's healthy I think you have to continue to trot him out there.

P.S. I don't think its a terrible idea to see if JJ can start. However, he can't be expected to pitch 200 innings next year, and thus, should probably at least start the year in the pen.

He didn't get surgery, he rehabbed his arm. He's already starting throwing I believe.

[Sports Guy]

Lets see, Marquis is terrible (8-7 with 4.79 ERA and a 4.58 career ERA). That isn't terrible. It may be a little worse than league average. But not terrible. Cedeno is a 25 year old SS with a line of .279/.339/.370.

Walker is a 37 loogy with a 5.68 ERA and lefties are hitting.340 off of him and he makes 4.5 million, so the Cubs aren't saving very much money.

Not realistic.

First of all, you barely mention money and that is the huge thing here.

Secondly, as terrible as Walker looks this year, he could be very good next year.

[Hank Scorpio]

Let's stop dreaming about all the high profile SPs. We won't be getting a single one let alone dream about getting all four.

1.) Guthrie

2.) Jim Johnson

3.) Kyle Lohse / Paul Byrd type player

4.) DCab

5.) Matt Albers/Troy Patton

8th inning - Chris Ray and 9th inning George Sherrill with Chris taking over mid way with us trading Sherrill at the deadline if we are out of contention. Ideally, I hope we lock Ray into a long term deal if he shows his old form. Let's not let a BJ Ryan situation re-occur where we make him the closer before his FA year and have him leave.

Our #1 target will be Mark Tex because our offense will not repeat the same run production without him. It'll be real sad if we don't land a big bat. As bad as Baez was in 2007, hopefully him and Ray will be a good replacement for Albers and Johnson. Once again, we'll be lucky to be .500 but if our rotation stays solid with young arms coming up. Maybe we can be the Rays of 2008 but in 2010.

Let's not go nuts with this Patton talk. The kid's gonna be coming off of a year of not pitching. It's going to take him awhile to recover, if he recovers at all...

[Roll Tide]

Here's what I think :scratchchinhmm:

1) Guthrie

2) Burnett

3) Dempster

4) Cabrera

5) Olson

Here's what I'd like

1) Sabathia/Sheets

2) Guthrie

3) Burnett

4) Dempster

5) Olson/Burres/Waters/Albers

[Hank Scorpio]

I know people knee jerk about Johnson in the rotation, but I'm not quite sure why.

The back end of the bullpen is going to be crowded next year with Ray, Baez, Sherrill, Cabrera, Walker (he ain't goin' anywhere unless they cut him), and Sarfate.

Obviously, this team will be desperate for starting pitching after Guthrie. Johnson has been a starting pitcher his entire career with limited success, and after a winter/spring mechanics transformation, was stashed in our bullpen. We all know what has transpired since then.

Johnson and Schmidt worked together almost daily. Among the winter's projects: Johnson extended the stride in his pitching motion. At 6 feet 5 and 245 pounds, he seemed to be caught off-balance at times by his relatively short stride.

There is no harm in seeing if Johnson's success can translate to the rotation. His two seamer is nasty and his velocity should sit somewhere between 92-95 mph. His curveball is tighter than it's ever been. He looks like a groundball machine.

Give him a shot in the spring to see if he can get through the lineup two or three times. If he can't, then put him back in the bullpen. What's the risk, here? Are we going to destroy Johnson mentally? Based on the above article, I sincerely doubt it.

My 2009 rotation (assuming we can sign Burnett reasonably) would be :

Guthrie

Burnett

Johnson

Cabrera

Olson