MLB Pipeline: Austin Martin

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Mancini was an 8th round pick and is up over 6 WAR.  Markakis was the best player in his draft class. 

 

True.  I'm talking like...a generational talent.  We never seem to get one of those that lands in our lap.

I know, I know, I know, the chances are incredibly low.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, makoman said:

I believe Markakis had the most WAR in his draft class. (Adam Jones was second). So we did pretty well there.

He went 7th and signed an under slot deal.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

True.  I'm talking like...a generational talent.  We never seem to get one of those that lands in our lap.

I know, I know, I know, the chances are incredibly low.

Yes we didn't get Trout.

But overall they have had some picks that have really panned out (just not always for the O's). 

Yes I'm still salty about the Norris trade.

[makoman]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He went 7th and signed an under slot deal.

Yeah, and weren't we the only team that wanted him as a position player?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, makoman said:

Yeah, and weren't we the only team that wanted him as a position player?

We don't know that.

Even if we were we were also the only* team that thought Givens was a position player.  So it evens out.

[makoman]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We don't know that.

Even if we were we were also the only* team that thought Givens was a position player.  So it evens out.

Fair enough. I thought that was reported as the consensus but who knows how teams actually felt. 

Anyway, I was thinking of it in the context of Moose’s “Why can’t we get the steal for once.” Which is like saying why can’t we get lucky/smart with something everyone else missed. If we missed the other way with another guy later that doesn’t really matter. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by makoman

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

I hope afterwards Tony or weams might have a Luke insight or two whoever we end up with, but I double hope that if we end up going Gonzales as I remember Luke being pretty bullish on him before signing on.  I am sure Sig has the park effects thing in the Decision Sciences toolkit.

Every step away from a standard environment adds uncertainty to the data.  Gonzales has been playing in an environment that's like five standard deviations from the MLB mean in run context, and five standard deviations from the mean in quality of play.  I'm making up the five, but something like that.  On any given day he might be facing a pitcher who'll never play professionally and tops out at 80 mph, backed by a team that has no professional prospects, playing in a park with a runs and HR factor of 2.00.  Throw on top of that the fact that his last year in college the season stopped after 16 games.

A normal top five pick has a range of outcomes that stretch from "washes out in AAA" to "inner circle HOFer", with a mean somewhere around "decent major leaguer for a while".  Almost by definition Gonzales' standard deviation of potential outcomes is higher than a player in a more normal context.  There's only so much you can tease out of data with that much noise.

If it were me I'd give the scouting reports about 10 times the weight of his performance numbers, which means you have less real information to go on than you would with another player.  Absolutely he's a higher risk player than Martin, that's why he'll come substantially cheaper.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, makoman said:

Yeah, and weren't we the only team that wanted him as a position player?

There were rumors to that effect, and also that Angelos pushed to take him because of his Greek ancestry.  I'm not sure there's any evidence of the latter, probably just supposition from the standard issue Angelos is a dunce narrative. 

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True.  I'm talking like...a generational talent.  We never seem to get one of those that lands in our lap.

I know, I know, I know, the chances are incredibly low.

How long is a generation?  About 30 years?  The O's have been around in their modern incarnation for 66 years and have found themselves with Brooks, Cal, Eddie, Manny.  None of them are Trout, but the only Trouts ever are probably Cobb, Ruth, Mays, and Trout.  Bonds, I guess. And even Trout could fall off that list if his 30s don't quite measure up.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

It appears to be an overall weak draft.  That there was no spring season this year helps that along.  

They say its a strong draft for pitchers.  And I think Tork is a strong #1.   It just that the #2 is not as strong as some years IMO

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

They say its a strong draft for pitchers.  And I think Tork is a strong #1.   It just that the #2 is not as strong as some years IMO

I would agree that it's not a strong #2.  

It might be a strong draft for pitchers but there doesn't seem to be one head and shoulders above the rest.  People seem to like Lacy the most but it's not unanimous.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would agree that it's not a strong #2.  

It might be a strong draft for pitchers but there doesn't seem to be one head and shoulders above the rest.  People seem to like Lacy the most but it's not unanimous.

Strong number #1 and an abundance of arms in the draft, doesnt make it a strong draft for pitchers.

Who knows, may find a few arms that make it up to the big leagues as a pen guy.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

They say its a strong draft for pitchers.  And I think Tork is a strong #1.   It just that the #2 is not as strong as some years IMO

I don't know that I'd call a guy who's already a first baseman at 20/21 a strong #1.  #1 is the best overall talent in the draft and he's already limited to 1B/DH as a pro.  In my book a strong #1 is an up-the-middle fielder who can also hit a ton. 

Not at all surprising that you're ranking Martin as a weak #2. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know that I'd call a guy who's already a first baseman at 20/21 a strong #1.  #1 is the best overall talent in the draft and he's already limited to 1B/DH as a pro.  In my book a strong #1 is an up-the-middle fielder who can also hit a ton. 

Not at all surprising that you're ranking Martin as a weak #2. 

From what I've been reading left field is a possibility, and not just in a Mancini capacity.

[Number5]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I trust the scouts, but when I hear stuff like this I want to yell out "take the best player available, not the guy who OPS'd 1.400 in a little league park!!"

https://prospects365.com/2020/04/20/nick-gonzales-has-entered-uncharted-territory/

Quote

From a draft and dynasty outlook, Gonzales’ biggest detractors will lean on the aforementioned, friendly hitting environment he benefitted from while at New Mexico State. Thankfully, the second baseman’s received an opportunity to play for the Cotuit Kettleers (what a name) in the Cape Cod League last summer. Wood bats. High level pitching. Away from the friendly confines at NMSU. It was time to put up or shut up, and Gonzales was LOUD. 

42 Games: .351/.451/.630, 14 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 20:22 BB:K, 6 SB (100% steal rate)

He parlayed that special line into being named Cape Cod MVP, ranking inside the top-5 in nearly every offensive category. With most of the 2020 college baseball being canceled, Gonzales’ performance in the Cape may have been the most important statistical sample of his college career.