MLB Pipeline: Austin Martin

[ISU94]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Special bat special bat special bat...

isn’t that what they said about Mountcastle and Sisco?

I don’t know anything about these picks, but ignoring such a problem as is mentioned here might be unwise.

I would say a bat being heralded in the top 2-3 of the draft is a tad different than where Mountcastle and Sisco were going into the draft.

There's also some defensive concerns sure, but it's not like its such a large issue he won't find a home.

[Greg Pappas]

Martin should be a solid average defensive 2B or CF.  Perhaps better.  I'll take that with his potentially elite bat.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Martin should be a solid average defensive 2B or CF.  Perhaps better.  I'll take that with his potentially elite bat.

Its a choice  and a valid opinion.

From what I have read Martin profiles as 15 HR,  15 SB,  300/350/400/750  in 600 AB in the majors.   An average 2B or CF.  That does not sound like a #2 overall pick to me.   Not when Lacy and Hancock are there for the taking.

Its not like Martin projects to hit 40 HR or steal 40 bases a season.  He appears to be a singles and doubles hitter.  His speed is above average but not blazing.   His pluses to me are that he is a smart player from what I have  read.  Has good instincts for the game and leadership qualities.

[ISU94]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Its a choice  and a valid opinion.

From what I have read Martin profiles as 15 HR,  15 SB,  300/350/400/750  in 600 AB in the majors.   An average 2B or CF.  That does not sound like a #2 overall pick to me.   Not when Lacy and Hancock are there for the taking.

Its not like Martin projects to hit 40 HR or steal 40 bases a season.  He appears to be a singles and doubles hitter.  His speed is above average but not blazing.   His pluses to me are that he is a smart player from what I have  read.  Has good instincts for the game and leadership qualities.

If his upside were what you suggest he wouldn't be viewed as a top 3 guy.

But also, you take into account how likely a guy is too reach his potential. Martin is a fairly advanced player that projects much more likely to hit the projections/what people are hoping for than most in this class. 

Saying he tops out, with his tools, as a .750 OPS guy isn't accurate.

[fansince1988]

I'd draft a pitcher at 2. Can't win without pitching. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, ISU94 said:

If his upside were what you suggest he wouldn't be viewed as a top 3 guy.

But also, you take into account how likely a guy is too reach his potential. Martin is a fairly advanced player that projects much more likely to hit the projections/what people are hoping for than most in this class. 

Saying he tops out, with his tools, as a .750 OPS guy isn't accurate.

Your post made me look at the leading hitters in the MLB last season.   Bryan Reynolds, Tim Anderson and Whit Merrifield all had mid teens HR power, few triples and still had over 800 OPS.    So I think you are right.   I  was underestimating  Martins ability to have a high OPS.   I guess I will have to adjust my thinking on Martins offensive production.

[hoosiers]

Lol - Baseball America's top prospect in the draft ..... not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2.  Some of you folks are too much.

 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Lol - Baseball America's top prospect in the draft ..... not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2.  Some of you folks are too much.

 

Some times it works out.  Some times it doesn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

[hoosiers]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Some times it works out.  Some times it doesn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

This risk applies to every pick.  It is a very generic comment.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, hoosiers said:

This risk applies to every pick.  It is a very generic comment.

Response to your "not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2" comment.

OH questioning even the #1 or #2 pick  is justified.    History shows they either pick has only a 50% chance of having a good major league career.    Generic or not its true.

[ISU94]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Response to your "not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2" comment.

OH questioning even the #1 or #2 pick  is justified.    History shows they either pick has only a 50% chance of having a good major league career.    Generic or not its true.

You take the guys with the best and most likely tools and upside to make it. You go down the list an each picks gets slimmer and slimmer. 

If it was obvious one of these guys would hit a high ceiling than that's the higher they go and why you have Martin near the top. He's one of the guys in this with the likeliest chance to make it unlike the majority of the guys drafted.

Being bullish/having your own guys is fine, but acting like Martin isn't a very deserved choice when the guy is being heralded as arguably the best player and one of the best bats seems by pretty much everyone I'd say is a bold move. Is he definitely going to work out? No, but exactly zero players in this draft fits that mold.

[hoosiers]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Response to your "not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2" comment.

OH questioning even the #1 or #2 pick  is justified.    History shows they either pick has only a 50% chance of having a good major league career.    Generic or not its true.

You can have your opinion.  I won't deny anyone here their opinion.  Prospects fail all the time for many reasons.

However, I will say that when the best prospect evaluators not with any major league organization say a prospect is their 1A or 1B top prospect in an entire draft class and someone here makes up a .750 OPS profile or claims the prospect won't make it because he profiles at 2B, then I will say the basis for your claim/disagreement that this is likely to be a failed prospect has little grounding in the reality of professional opinion.  

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

You can have your opinion.  I won't deny anyone here their opinion.  Prospects fail all the time for many reasons.

However, I will say that when the best prospect evaluators not with any major league organization say a prospect is their 1A or 1B top prospect in an entire draft class and someone here makes up a .750 OPS profile or claims the prospect won't make it because he profiles at 2B, then I will say the basis for your claim/disagreement that this is likely to be a failed prospect has little grounding in the reality of professional opinion.  

You need to keep up.  I said the that the 750 OPS was probably low.   But then again the two other #2 drafted second baseman this decade didn't do much better than that.  I am open minded on this and doing research to see what I come up with.

It appears that the highly thought of players in the draft only pan out 50% of the time.    So ir  doesn't look like anyone  but maybe Torkelson is a lock to have a good major league career.  JMO

[Big Mac]

I'm still reviewing scouting reports and video so I'm actually undecided as to who my preference is for the second pick.  Regardless, it seems clear that Martin is a completely defensible pick, even if I ultimately have a personal preference for another player.  

[DrungoHazewood]

It is certainly odd to have a very high pick profile as a second baseman coming out of college.

In 2019 the top second baseman was the #31 overall pick, and only three in the top 75.
In 2018 the top second baseman was the #25 overall pick, three in the top 100.
In 2017 Keston Hiura was taken #9, the next second baseman was #75.
In 2016 Nick Solak (#62) was the only second baseman in the first 100 picks.
In 2015 the first 2B taken was Scott Kingery at #48.
In 2014 the Rockies took Forrest Wall at #35.
In 2013 the Yanks took Goskue Katoh at #66.
In 2012 the Nats took Tony Renda at #80.
In 2011 the Padres took Cory Spangenberg at #10.
In 2010 the Red Sox tok Kolbrin Vitek at #20.

So in the past decade there have only been two top ten second basemen, and years where no second baseman was taken in the top 50 picks.  It's rare to have someone who defensively profiles as a second baseman that early in their career, given the lesser defensive requirements for SS/3B/CF at amateur levels. 

Of course the issue with drafting a second baseman is if he can't play second at a professional level he gets to try to be a weak-armed OF or a 1B/DH.  And at 6', 175, he isn't a typical 1B/DH.

I wouldn't dismiss Martin because of that, but he has a very unusual profile.  You'd have to be very confident that his bat will be strong.