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2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

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Posted by Tony-OH,

It's not surprising that the draft is looking different than many mock boards due to the lack of 2020 data to go off of due to the lack of games to evaluate. Elias is clearly not afraid to go with a guy with one plus plus tool (power) which is a bit surprising for the #2 overall pick. His hit tool is probably plus as well, but the K-BB ratio prior to his short junior year makes him a bit of question mark when he has to face professional pitching on a nightly basis. Elias and his guys h

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MountUrCastle AAA

MountUrCastle

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I will also say that if drafting has any analogous features across sports, you should never draft someone (especially on the older side of the draft range) who's problems are mental and situation IQ focused and expect them to get better at said IQ-based issue. You can fix speed, you can fix power, you can fix fielding to an extent. If the issue with Kjerstad is he has spent 21 years going power over everything before a pitch is even thrown it is a deep rooted reflex.

I know this may read weird, but it's the one constant across sports drafts (that I have found.)

 

IQ = awareness of what to do and when.

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Orioles1954
Orioles1954

As the only Orioles and Razorbacks fan on the planet I am thrilled with this pick. I've watched numerous games with Kjerstad since he came our way from Amarillo, Texas. Beautiful fluid swing, not a lo

interloper
interloper

Elias and team deserve waaay more benefit of the doubt than saying he's "saving money" at this stage. We have some of the game's best evaluators and analytics. Let's just see! Interesting.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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3 minutes ago, MountUrCastle said:

I will also say that if drafting has any analogous features across sports, you should never draft someone (especially on the older side of the draft range) who's problems are mental and situation IQ focused and expect them to get better at said IQ-based issue. You can fix speed, you can fix power, you can fix fielding to an extent. If the issue with Kjerstad is he has spent 21 years going power over everything before a pitch is even thrown it is a deep rooted reflex.

I know this may read weird, but it's the one constant across sports drafts (that I have found.)

 

IQ = awareness of what to do and when.

You can "fix power" and "fix speed"?   I would disagree.

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spiritof66 Hangout Grand Counsel

spiritof66

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23 minutes ago, Orioles1954 said:

From the beginning I thought Kjerstad had the batting makeup of Will Clark, a lot of fellow Hogs fans feel that way as well. WOULD NOT be surprised if the O's select Arkansas infielder Casey Martin at either 30 or 39.

Casey Martin is from near (maybe 10-15 miles) Little Rock. It was a long time ago, but I'm pretty sure that we had real good infielder from Little Rock. I think he may have played third base just before DeCInces. ?

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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40 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

When you have the 2nd pick and you pick a guy ranked somewhere between 7 and 17 (that I've seen), you're taking a big risk.  Hobgood was ranked lower going into the draft (mid to late 1st round) but he was taken with the fifth pick.  

Elias is definitely putting his job on the line here.  

I don't think his job is at risk.  But a fair amount of credibility is.

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bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

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27 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I’d rather have Martin than Kjerstad/Bitsko

Bitsko is the big question mark the last time people saw him he was a sophomore in high school.  He reclassified and skipped a year in high school to get into this class as it was rather weak high school pitching class some believed he has stuff to be top high school pitcher coming out had season ran.

 

 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I don't think his job is at risk.  But a fair amount of credibility is.

We shall see. I will say this, part of being a good evaluator is seeing what others don’t and exploiting that info asymmetry to your advantage. Jury out on the pick, but tough to immediately judge a pro evaluator with track record in a negative light for breaking against public opinion. 

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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BTW: Important to see what these tool grades mean.

 

Quote

 

Objective Tool Grades

  Tool Is Called Fastball Velo Batting Avg Homers RHH to 1B LHH to 1B 60 Yd Run
80 80 97 .320 40+ 4.00 3.90 6.3
75   96 .310 35-40 4.05 3.95 6.4
70 Plus Plus 95 .300 30-35 4.10 4.00 6.5
65   94 .290 27-30 4.15 4.05 6.6
60 Plus 93 .280 23-27 4.20 4.10 6.7
55 Above Avg 92 .270 19-22 4.25 4.15 6.8
50 Avg 90-91 .260 15-18 4.30 4.20 6.9-7.0
45 Below Avg 89 .250 12-15 4.35 4.25 7.1
40   88 .240 8-12 4.40 4.30 7.2
35   87 .230 5-8 4.45 4.35 7.3
30   86 .220 3-5 4.50 4

 

I couldn't make it smaller, sorry.

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MountUrCastle AAA

MountUrCastle

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3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You can "fix power" and "fix speed"?   I would disagree.

Sorry, I forgot power and speed is gifted to you upon birth, and not a trained asset. 

I know it certainly seems dumb, but I would argue that raw power and foot speed are some of the easiest things to improve upon in any sport.

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