2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

[BohKnowsBmore]

25 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Joe Jordan went against the industry consensus when he picked Matt Hobgood.  It didn't work out and Jordan wound up getting fired.  

Elias has taken a similar risk here.  On paper, Kjerstad is not considered to be as good a prospect as Martin.  Maybe Elias knows something and is comfortable going against the grain.  He'd better be right.  If Martin turns out to be the next Tony Gwynn and Kjerstad turns out to be a good major league RF, I'll be ok with the pick.  I wish Kjerstad the best.  

In no world are a HS pitcher and college bat similar risks 

[Tony-OH]

It's not surprising that the draft is looking different than many mock boards due to the lack of 2020 data to go off of due to the lack of games to evaluate.

Elias is clearly not afraid to go with a guy with one plus plus tool (power) which is a bit surprising for the #2 overall pick. His hit tool is probably plus as well, but the K-BB ratio prior to his short junior year makes him a bit of question mark when he has to face professional pitching on a nightly basis.

Elias and his guys have way more data then any of the Mock draft guys so they are certainly going to get the benefit of the doubt from me. But, it is interesting that the reports suggest he will bring no defensive value in the outfield (adequate outfielder is not a glowing remark) or as a runner (40-45 grade by most) which means there is a ton of pressure on the bat. 

Saying that, the Orioles have no real left-handed power in the system (outside of Rutschman who is a switch-hitter) and thinking of a guy like that aiming for the flag court on a daily night sounds like fun.

It will also be interesting to see what he signs for. Is he an underslot so the Orioles have an opportunity to pick a guy at #30 that might not be available if they had to spent Austin Martin money (Boras as an agent and reportedly asking 1-1 money) with the #2 pick? 

Let's see what he signs for and who they take at #29 before making a final initial assessment.

Overall, Kjerstad's left-handed power was the 2nd best in the draft behind Torkelson, and that alone makes this pick very interesting.

 

[ArtVanDelay]

I’d rather have Martin than Kjerstad/Bitsko

[ISU94]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Again, I get that he was considered a top 10-12 guy.  And I'd be cool with this pick if we were picking in that range.

I get that Martin wanted above slot, however there were several better projected players at #2 that they could have signed.  You can't convince me otherwise.  

Again, "projected". Elias, Sign, etc. may very well have a higher grade on him than the Keith Law's, Jonathan Mayo's, etc. of the world.

[ISU94]

Just now, ISU94 said:

Again, "projected". Elias, Sign, etc. may very well have a higher grade on him than the Keith Law's, Jonathan Mayo's, etc. of the world.

Sig* 

The FO in general.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not surprising that the draft is looking different than many mock boards due to the lack of 2020 data to go off of due to the lack of games to evaluate.

Elias is clearly not afraid to go with a guy with one plus plus tool (power) which is a bit surprising for the #2 overall pick. His hit tool is probably plus as well, but the K-BB ratio prior to his short junior year makes him a bit of question mark when he has to face professional pitching on a nightly basis.

Elias and his guys have way more data then any of the Mock draft guys so they are certainly going to get the benefit of the doubt from me. But, it is interesting that the reports suggest he will bring no defensive value in the outfield (adequate outfielder is not a glowing remark) or as a runner (40-45 grade by most) which means there is a ton of pressure on the bat. 

Saying that, the Orioles have no real left-handed power in the system (outside of Rutschman who is a switch-hitter) and thinking of a guy like that aiming for the flag court on a daily night sounds like fun.

It will also be interesting to see what he signs for. Is he an underslot so the Orioles have an opportunity to pick a guy at #29 that might not be available if they had to spent Austin Martin money (Boras as an agent and reportedly asking 1-1 money) with the #2 pick? 

Let's see what he signs for and who they take at #29 before making a final initial assessment.

Overall, Kjerstad's left-handed power with the 2nd best in the draft behind Torkelson, and that alone makes this pick very interesting.

I'm interested in what Martin signs for.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, interloper said:

Well I'm all in. Martin is no surer thing than Heston IMO. We have no lefty power bat in the system really.

Gunnar Henderson,  Switchhitters - Rutschman and Santander.

[Orioles1954]

From the beginning I thought Kjerstad had the batting makeup of Will Clark, a lot of fellow Hogs fans feel that way as well. WOULD NOT be surprised if the O's select Arkansas infielder Casey Martin at either 30 or 39.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, ISU94 said:

Again, "projected". Elias, Sign, etc. may very well have a higher grade on him than the Keith Law's, Jonathan Mayo's, etc. of the world.

And that's fine if they did.  They say they will have him graded higher.  But I really don't believe that.  Do you?

[Es4M11]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not disagree with you, I just don't like folks using Aiken as an example.  No way they could have seen that coming and they didn't sign him.

Fair enough

[CallMeBrooksie]

I'm willing to wait and see what happens, especially with the next few picks...

But I'll say it's an extremely tough sell to a fanbase who just endured the past two seasons that we have to not take the consensus top talent available and instead take this guy. It's just hard to swallow after thinking to yourself "at least we'll have a top 2 pick" over and over again after every on-field disaster last season 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think people are just a little sensitive about this possibly being a "penny pinching" type move by an organization that has one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball. 

Every penny of the pool gets spent. So there is no penny pinching. It's just who gets the money. In a deep draft, plenty of good places to spend it. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, CallMeBrooksie said:

I'm willing to wait and see what happens, especially with the next few picks...

But I'll say it's an extremely tough sell to a fanbase who just endured the past two seasons that we have to not take the consensus top talent available and instead take this guy. It's just hard to swallow after thinking to yourself "at least we'll have a top 2 pick" over and over again after every on-field disaster last season 

At least they didn't pick him 1-1!

[ISU94]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And that's fine if they did.  They say they will have him graded higher.  But I really don't believe that.  Do you?

I don't, no.

I do believe that they had him higher than you may view him/a lot of draftniks though. Pair that with a very comfortable $ # they probably have with him that a couple others likely wouldn't take and...

[scOtt]

13 minutes ago, SteveA said:

5:00

Televised on MLBN, not on ESPN & MLBN like tonight is.

I'll just have to follow it here then.