FWIW: My thoughts on the O's draft

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Now that five of the six prospects I targeted in this exercise have signed, there remains $7,433,900 to "sign" Austin Martin.  Whether Martin signs for that amount or less, the exercise was created to show what sort of talent we may have been able to draft if we went with A. Martin. I know that I would not have actually taken the exact same six players I pretend drafted, as I am certain to want to have targeted a couple of HS talents at some point. Guys I would have still targeted include A. Martin, McMahon and Bedell. Regardless, what these guys signed for would be for different amounts I'm sure because of different slots. I know this though, I hope Kjerstad and the rest of the 2020 draftees turn out great and they (and Elias/staff) have my full support.

The O's Draft Bonus Pool was $13,821,300.

• Austin Martin went 5th (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #2 in my exercise.  The #2 slot bonus is $7,789,900. 
• Chris McMahon went 46th (Rockies), though I would have taken him at #30 in my exercise. The #30 slot bonus is $2,365,500.  (Signed for $1,637,400)
• CJ Van Eyk went 42nd (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #39 in my exercise. The #39 slot bonus is $1,906,800.  (Signed for $1,800,000)
• Casey Martin went 87th (Phillies), though I would have taken him at #74 in my exercise. The #74 slot bonus is $844,200.  (Signed for $1,300,000)
• Ian Bedell went 122nd (Cardinals), though I would have taken him at #103 in my exercise. The #103 slot bonus is $565,600. (Signed for $800,000)
• Bryce Elder went 156th (Braves), though I would have taken him at #130 in my exercise. The #130 slot bonus is $422,300.  (Signed for $850,000)

Great exercise by you - something I wouldn't have the knowledge and smarts to do as well.  We should check back in several years to compare yours to the O's.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Now that five of the six prospects I targeted in this exercise have signed, there remains $7,433,900 to "sign" Austin Martin.  Whether Martin signs for that amount or less, the exercise was created to show what sort of talent we may have been able to draft if we went with A. Martin. I know that I would not have actually taken the exact same six players I pretend drafted, as I am certain to want to have targeted a couple of HS talents at some point.

I certainly think it's a valid exercise and helps self-reflect on reactions/discussion of the draft. Appreciate your commentary here and don't want this to come across as a criticism.

I would say regardless of what Martin signs for at this point, barring a shocker, isn't super important. If the Jays sign him for the ~7.4M you have remaining, I doubt he would have accepted that at the #2 slot as it would be ~$400K higher (everything we've heard suggests he wouldn't accept an "underslot" deal). I think this analysis does a good job of demonstrating the potential merit of the "underslot" strategy, as it looks like you wouldn't have had the dollars to sign your hypothetical draft class.

Again, I think it's great that you put a stake in the ground on which to judge your comments and don't want this to come across as a criticism in any way (rather its a discussion of the results for the exercise/experiment). 

[Greg Pappas]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I certainly think it's a valid exercise and helps self-reflect on reactions/discussion of the draft. Appreciate your commentary here and don't want this to come across as a criticism.

I would say regardless of what Martin signs for at this point, barring a shocker, isn't super important. If the Jays sign him for the ~7.4M you have remaining, I doubt he would have accepted that at the #2 slot as it would be ~$400K higher (everything we've heard suggests he wouldn't accept an "underslot" deal). I think this analysis does a good job of demonstrating the potential merit of the "underslot" strategy, as it looks like you wouldn't have had the dollars to sign your hypothetical draft class.

Again, I think it's great that you put a stake in the ground on which to judge your comments and don't want this to come across as a criticism in any way (rather its a discussion of the results for the exercise/experiment). 

Agreed. I realize that different slots mean different amounts. It's all good... I hope we look back and marvel at how well Elias did.