Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[calsmanystances]

 Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker, ranked third on Keith Law’s top-50 draft prospects, had a solid outing on Friday night against Tennessee. He went seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk and striking out eight. His velocity was up over his previous few starts, touching 96 mph and sitting 93-95, according to multiple reports. There had been some concern about his health with his fastball sitting more 89-91 in his previous few outings.

https://theathletic.com/2529621/2021/04/20/2021-mlb-draft-heat-watch-nc-states-luca-tresh-texas-techs-cal-conley-emerging/

 

Henry Davis is definitely a guy we need to watch. Dominant on-base catcher who has power and is a solid receiver with a plus arm. Davis is hitting .403, 8 HR, 7 2B, 34 RBI, 28 BB 12 K's in 33 games. He has a .529 OBP and .664 Slg% (1.193 OPS). In last year's Covid limited season (14 games), he had a .481 OBP and .698 Slg% (1.179 OPS).  Let's not go through Buster Posey #2 (passed on Posey because we took Wieters the year before). Take the best player available at #5 and it'll work itself out. Maybe Rutschman isn't as good as he is "supposed" to be? Maybe Rutschman is as good as we hope and he starts 4-5 games a week and Davis starts two and each plays 1B or DH the other games. Maybe we trade one. Who knows? But it's a good problem to have. Here's a portion of what our good friend, Keith Law had to say:

 

Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.

Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.

Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good  No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.

https://theathletic.com/2527868/2021/04/19/law-is-louisvilles-henry-davis-the-best-prospect-in-this-years-mlb-draft/

 

 

[Hazmat]

Davis' stance seems pretty crouched to me.  It's not as exaggerated as DJ's but will Davis require an adjustment to have success in professional ball?  His quads are massive!  Dude doesn't skip leg day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJDSRXOWM9E

 

[joelala]

2 hours ago, calsmanystances said:

 Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker, ranked third on Keith Law’s top-50 draft prospects, had a solid outing on Friday night against Tennessee. He went seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk and striking out eight. His velocity was up over his previous few starts, touching 96 mph and sitting 93-95, according to multiple reports. There had been some concern about his health with his fastball sitting more 89-91 in his previous few outings.

https://theathletic.com/2529621/2021/04/20/2021-mlb-draft-heat-watch-nc-states-luca-tresh-texas-techs-cal-conley-emerging/

 

Henry Davis is definitely a guy we need to watch. Dominant on-base catcher who has power and is a solid receiver with a plus arm. Davis is hitting .403, 8 HR, 7 2B, 34 RBI, 28 BB 12 K's in 33 games. He has a .529 OBP and .664 Slg% (1.193 OPS). In last year's Covid limited season (14 games), he had a .481 OBP and .698 Slg% (1.179 OPS).  Let's not go through Buster Posey #2 (passed on Posey because we took Wieters the year before). Take the best player available at #5 and it'll work itself out. Maybe Rutschman isn't as good as he is "supposed" to be? Maybe Rutschman is as good as we hope and he starts 4-5 games a week and Davis starts two and each plays 1B or DH the other games. Maybe we trade one. Who knows? But it's a good problem to have. Here's a portion of what our good friend, Keith Law had to say:

 

Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.

Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.

Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good  No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.

https://theathletic.com/2527868/2021/04/19/law-is-louisvilles-henry-davis-the-best-prospect-in-this-years-mlb-draft/

 

 

I don’t think Davis will be there for us. I would be happy with the pick but I still want a Middle infielder or 3B. Or Leiter if he somehow falls. I think I’m a hard pass on Rocker. 

[calsmanystances]

MLB.Com mock from Callis and Mayo. Doesn't seem like House has a real chance to stay at SS, but scouts love his power.

 

1) Pirates (Callis): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt -- It feels like a four-man race to go No. 1 right now, but give me the guy who’s dominating the Southeastern Conference and can pitch off his fastball like few can.

2) Rangers (Mayo): Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas) -- Callis taking Leiter made this easier as I feel Lawlar’s the next best player in the class right now as a five-tool player at a premium position.

3) Tigers (Callis): Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) -- I almost went back-to-back Vanderbilt pitchers, but Mayer’s sweet left-handed swing and smooth shortstop play were too much to pass up.

4) Red Sox (Mayo): Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt -- No way I was going to let Rocker go further than this, not with that ridiculous fastball-slider combination that comes from his intimidating 6-foot-5 frame.

5) Orioles (Callis): Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) -- He has big-time power and arm strength and could be a more athletic/higher contact version of Joey Gallo.

6) D-backs (Mayo): Henry Davis, C, Louisville -- He’s risen to the top of the college bat crop by hitting over .400 with power this spring, combining that with a plus arm behind the plate lands him firmly in top 10 talk.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-makes-top-20-draft-picks?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, calsmanystances said:

MLB.Com mock from Callis and Mayo. Doesn't seem like House has a real chance to stay at SS, but scouts love his power.

 

1) Pirates (Callis): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt -- It feels like a four-man race to go No. 1 right now, but give me the guy who’s dominating the Southeastern Conference and can pitch off his fastball like few can.

2) Rangers (Mayo): Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas) -- Callis taking Leiter made this easier as I feel Lawlar’s the next best player in the class right now as a five-tool player at a premium position.

3) Tigers (Callis): Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) -- I almost went back-to-back Vanderbilt pitchers, but Mayer’s sweet left-handed swing and smooth shortstop play were too much to pass up.

4) Red Sox (Mayo): Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt -- No way I was going to let Rocker go further than this, not with that ridiculous fastball-slider combination that comes from his intimidating 6-foot-5 frame.

5) Orioles (Callis): Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) -- He has big-time power and arm strength and could be a more athletic/higher contact version of Joey Gallo.

6) D-backs (Mayo): Henry Davis, C, Louisville -- He’s risen to the top of the college bat crop by hitting over .400 with power this spring, combining that with a plus arm behind the plate lands him firmly in top 10 talk.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-makes-top-20-draft-picks?t=mlb-draft-coverage

At this early stage, I think it comes down to Lawlar, Mayer, House and Davis for the Orioles. I would just fine with any of the first 3, but I am still learning about Davis. Take the best player available, regardless of position. If Davis proves to be that guy, good. 

[calsmanystances]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

At this early stage, I think it comes down to Lawlar, Mayer, House and Davis for the Orioles. I would just fine with any of the first 3, but I am still learning about Davis. Take the best player available, regardless of position. If Davis proves to be that guy, good. 

The bolded language is the key for me. 

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, calsmanystances said:

The bolded language is the key for me. 

Agreed. We should not shy away from taking another college catcher. Injuries, trades, position changes, etc...but I do like those other three. I have been high on Brady House for two years.

[George Zuverink]

20 hours ago, calsmanystances said:

 Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker, ranked third on Keith Law’s top-50 draft prospects, had a solid outing on Friday night against Tennessee. He went seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk and striking out eight. His velocity was up over his previous few starts, touching 96 mph and sitting 93-95, according to multiple reports. There had been some concern about his health with his fastball sitting more 89-91 in his previous few outings.

https://theathletic.com/2529621/2021/04/20/2021-mlb-draft-heat-watch-nc-states-luca-tresh-texas-techs-cal-conley-emerging/

 

Henry Davis is definitely a guy we need to watch. Dominant on-base catcher who has power and is a solid receiver with a plus arm. Davis is hitting .403, 8 HR, 7 2B, 34 RBI, 28 BB 12 K's in 33 games. He has a .529 OBP and .664 Slg% (1.193 OPS). In last year's Covid limited season (14 games), he had a .481 OBP and .698 Slg% (1.179 OPS).  Let's not go through Buster Posey #2 (passed on Posey because we took Wieters the year before). Take the best player available at #5 and it'll work itself out. Maybe Rutschman isn't as good as he is "supposed" to be? Maybe Rutschman is as good as we hope and he starts 4-5 games a week and Davis starts two and each plays 1B or DH the other games. Maybe we trade one. Who knows? But it's a good problem to have. Here's a portion of what our good friend, Keith Law had to say:

 

Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.

Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.

Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good  No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.

https://theathletic.com/2527868/2021/04/19/law-is-louisvilles-henry-davis-the-best-prospect-in-this-years-mlb-draft/

 

 

Or maybe you end up with the most valuable trade capital in MLB, an “extra” catcher who can hit and play the position extremely well.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, George Zuverink said:

Or maybe you end up with the most valuable trade capital in MLB, an “extra” catcher who can hit and play the position extremely well.

Just think how hosed the O's would have been if they had picked Posey with Wieters tearing it up in the minors.

[MurphDogg]

On 4/20/2021 at 9:17 PM, Jammer7 said:

At this early stage, I think it comes down to Lawlar, Mayer, House and Davis for the Orioles. I would just fine with any of the first 3, but I am still learning about Davis. Take the best player available, regardless of position. If Davis proves to be that guy, good. 

I don't think there is any chance Lawler is still on the board at #5. Unless something changes drastically, Lawler, Leiter and Rocker will all be off the board by the time the Orioles pick.

Keith Law has House at #8. 

Quote

House has some of the best exit velocities in the draft with unreal power in games this spring, and thanks to some small swing adjustments he’s showing that he can use the whole field better. He’s not going to stay at shortstop, and may have to work to become an average defender at third.

If he isn't a sure bet to at least remain at third and ends up a corner outfield / first base type, that makes it pretty hard to justify House at #5, unless the bat is otherworldly. A long way to go between high school and MLB, and it is tough to justify taking a non-premium defensive position high school hitter that early. Would prefer a college guy like Davis or Frelick (or a pitcher) unless they are sure House can at least stay at third. I don't want to draft House and then watch him Mountcastle his way across the defensive spectrum through the minors.

[Three Run Homer]

I hope that someone takes Davis in the top 4, so that we have at least one of Rocker, Leiter, Lawler and Mayer available to us.  We have so many needs that we can almost go BPA, but I don't think we can ignore the fact that we have an outstanding catcher prospect already in our system and would benefit from getting an outstanding prospect at a different position.

 

[Jammer7]

7 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think there is any chance Lawler is still on the board at #5. Unless something changes drastically, Lawler, Leiter and Rocker will all be off the board by the time the Orioles pick.

Keith Law has House at #8. 

If he isn't a sure bet to at least remain at third and ends up a corner outfield / first base type, that makes it pretty hard to justify House at #5, unless the bat is otherworldly. A long way to go between high school and MLB, and it is tough to justify taking a non-premium defensive position high school hitter that early. Would prefer a college guy like Davis or Frelick (or a pitcher) unless they are sure House can at least stay at third. I don't want to draft House and then watch him Mountcastle his way across the defensive spectrum through the minors.

Some, including Jim Callis in his recent podcast, have recently said House may be able to stay at SS, but most believe he is an athletic 3B with an elite arm. Like you wrote, it’s a long way there. But if you can rake with power, they will find a place for you to play. He is well known by the scouting community, been on the radar for a long time. Played a lot of showcases and been in the spotlight a long time. He struggled some last summer, trying to do too much. But by all  accounts, he is back to crushing the ball. 

I like what I have seen, but it is very little honestly. If they take someone else, great. Elias is a very astute scout. A 3B in today’s game is much more valuable than they were a decade ago with all of the shifts and such. 

I agree that Lawlar will likely be gone, sure. The top 4 are generally separated from the next group. But things can certainly change, I mean Toronto getting Martin last year was a shocker. We’ll see how it all develops. Rocker may fall some too. 

[olddogger]

MLB.pipeline has updated their draft prospect rankings.

[MurphDogg]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Some, including Jim Callis in his recent podcast, have recently said House may be able to stay at SS, but most believe he is an athletic 3B with an elite arm. Like you wrote, it’s a long way there. But if you can rake with power, they will find a place for you to play. He is well known by the scouting community, been on the radar for a long time. Played a lot of showcases and been in the spotlight a long time. He struggled some last summer, trying to do too much. But by all  accounts, he is back to crushing the ball. 

I like what I have seen, but it is very little honestly. If they take someone else, great. Elias is a very astute scout. A 3B in today’s game is much more valuable than they were a decade ago with all of the shifts and such. 

I agree that Lawlar will likely be gone, sure. The top 4 are generally separated from the next group. But things can certainly change, I mean Toronto getting Martin last year was a shocker. We’ll see how it all develops. Rocker may fall some too. 

Good info, and I agree with the bolded.

I see Leiter and Lawler as more of a top 2, separating themselves from Rocker, who I agree could fall. Leiter and Lawler are the only players I would bet on definitely being off the board at this point.

[Jammer7]

On 4/23/2021 at 7:31 AM, MurphDogg said:

Good info, and I agree with the bolded.

I see Leiter and Lawler as more of a top 2, separating themselves from Rocker, who I agree could fall. Leiter and Lawler are the only players I would bet on definitely being off the board at this point.

What are your thoughts on Rocker if he falls to #5? If the first four picks are, for instance, Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer and House, then Rocker is in play. I see a very big man who will be challenged to repeat his mechanics and to keep his weight in check in his career. Not saying he cannot be an excellent pitcher for along time. I just find him to be extremely risky. Are we in a position to take that risk? IDK