I'm Ready for Mountcastle and Diaz: Mountcastle Up, Diaz Still Waiting

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I think he is a keeper for the next winning Oriole team.  And I think he’ll likely be an average left fielder with an above average bat for a left fielder.

Elias building for 2027?

[NCRaven]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias building for 2027?

When Hall, Rodriguez and Kjerstad are ready?

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I get why you mention the MiL numbers and it’s valid but Mancini has exceeded what the expectations were for him.  At this point, what he did in the minors means very little.  Same with Nunez.  Now, it does show that RM perhaps has a higher ceiling but the likely outcome is that he ends up similar to Mancini.  

Do you think Mountcastle is an 850ish OPs guy on a consistent basis?

Like I said, he was a top 30 player in baseball last year, offensively.  Mountcastle will be hard pressed to do that.  I would guess that Mountcastle May have “better bad seasons” but his OBP is going to keep him down.  Unless he develops the ability to at least walk some (say 7-8%), he will struggle to have a 330 OBP.    I don’t think he consistently slugs in the 550 range, so that ends up putting to him in the area of Mancini.

I think Mountcastle is going to hit for a high average which will make up for his lack of walks and give him a decent OPS. It would not surprise me if he ends up a .800-.820 consistent OPS guy with some peak years. If he learns to take some walks or if pitchers start pitching around him, he could easily be an .850 OPS guy.

The key to success for Mountcastle is how much will he improve his game plan at the plate. If he decides to work like Mancini does and is able to take that into the batters box, his pure skills will make him a better hitter than Mancini. 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Mountcastle is going to hit for a high average which will make up for his lack of walks and give him a decent OPS. It would not surprise me if he ends up a .800-.820 consistent OPS guy with some peak years. If he learns to take some walks or if pitchers start pitching around him, he could easily be an .850 OPS guy.

The key to success for Mountcastle is how much will he improve his game plan at the plate. If he decides to work like Mancini does and is able to take that into the batters box, his pure skills will make him a better hitter than Mancini. 

Ok, so we basically agree on Mountcastle. Mancini had the awful 2018 year, where he did have an injury he was dealing with.  In 2017, he had an 826 OPS and 899 last year.  His career is 819.  

I would expect that from Mountcastle.  

I do think it’s fair to say the ceiling is higher for RM but I also think it’s fair to say that his likely outcome is that he is similar to Trey’s offensive numbers so far.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think he is a keeper for the next winning Oriole team.  And I think he’ll likely be an average left fielder with an above average bat for a left fielder.

I also think he can be an everyday player on the next Os winning team..have never said anything different.

I think it’s a big stretch to use the word likely when describing him defensively, at least if you are using it in a good way.

As for being better than the average LFer.  Not sure what the average LFer OPs is but 16 players, who had 400 or more at bats, had an OPS of 820 or higher last year.

I would guess that the average will be around that 820 area.  I could see him being better than that but I think you are asking a lot to expect that.

But we really don’t disagree much, except for the defense.

[section18]

What is Elias waiting for? He would rather sign Puig and give RM more time?

[section18]

Why were Puig's stays with the Reds and Indians so brief?

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so we basically agree on Mountcastle. Mancini had the awful 2018 year, where he did have an injury he was dealing with.  In 2017, he had an 826 OPS and 899 last year.  His career is 819.  

I would expect that from Mountcastle.  

I do think it’s fair to say the ceiling is higher for RM but I also think it’s fair to say that his likely outcome is that he is similar to Trey’s offensive numbers so far.

I didn’t realize the Mountcastle was only 22.... I really don’t see the rush to get him up this year. The same with Diaz and IMO the later should get 1 more season in the minors. I’d really like to see him hit .300+ at AAA For at least 1/2 a season.

I just don’t see the rush unless you don’t have a choice based on trading your major league assets.
 

I don’t suspect anyone will be beating down the door for Smith or Davis and don’t see us trading Hayes or Santander. 
 

The real problem for me is the defense. I’m personally tired of watching subpar defensive players. Mountcastle should with enough power to play 1B. But I cringe at the idea of Mancini/Mountcastle and Santander who also looks awkward in the outfield playing at the same time.

We have way too many DH/1B types with Núñez, Santander, Mancini, and Mountcastle. Alberto is another player due to limited range. He usually handles what he can get to ....but not much else.

[Can_of_corn]

He's 23.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's 23.

Your right sir

[Sports Guy]

And I believe he turns 24 before the start of next season.

We need to start seeing what this kid can do. 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so we basically agree on Mountcastle. Mancini had the awful 2018 year, where he did have an injury he was dealing with.  In 2017, he had an 826 OPS and 899 last year.  His career is 819.  

I would expect that from Mountcastle.  

I do think it’s fair to say the ceiling is higher for RM but I also think it’s fair to say that his likely outcome is that he is similar to Trey’s offensive numbers so far.

Mountcastle has one major advantage over Mancini: age.  At Mountcastle's age Mancini was coming of a very mediocre year split between Delmarva and Frederick.  He didn't really step up until 23.  You always give the advantage to someone who reaches a level of performance a year or two earlier.  At least we could expect Mountcastle to have a longer peak.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mountcastle has one major advantage over Mancini: age.  At Mountcastle's age Mancini was coming of a very mediocre year split between Delmarva and Frederick.  He didn't really step up until 23.  You always give the advantage to someone who reaches a level of performance a year or two earlier.  At least we could expect Mountcastle to have a longer peak.

Elias looks to be working hard to eliminate that advantage.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mountcastle has one major advantage over Mancini: age.  At Mountcastle's age Mancini was coming of a very mediocre year split between Delmarva and Frederick.  He didn't really step up until 23.  You always give the advantage to someone who reaches a level of performance a year or two earlier.  At least we could expect Mountcastle to have a longer peak.

Totally agree and it’s why I wanted to deal Mancini before because I didn’t think we would lose much, if anything.

Still, Mancini has outperformed what his MiL numbers said he would, so we are now at the point where we can say that RM will be hard pressed to be as much of a success with the bat as Mancini has already had.  
 

While the ceiling is higher, the floor is much lower for Mountcastle simply because we don’t know yet if he will translate at the big league level.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mountcastle has one major advantage over Mancini: age.  At Mountcastle's age Mancini was coming of a very mediocre year split between Delmarva and Frederick.  He didn't really step up until 23.  You always give the advantage to someone who reaches a level of performance a year or two earlier.  At least we could expect Mountcastle to have a longer peak.

So are you saying that players drafted out of college like Mancini are less likely to perform as well as players drafted out of high school like Mountcastle because of the age difference?