Mountcastle has first big MLB game

[glenn__davis]

55 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because it's so small they don't have instruments advanced enough to detect it? 

Gets in a pitcher's head.  Distracts him.  Gets in the fielders' heads.  How many times do you see fielders flub a ground ball because they know they've got a speedy runner.  Lots more infield hits for the speedy guys as well.

I think catergorizing offensive speed as having a negligible impact is incorrect, but I agree that the impact cannot be measured very well.

[glenn__davis]

53 minutes ago, weams said:

There is no real positive advantage to speed other than on defense. I guess the first to third thing is a thing. 

Could not disagree more my friend.  No question I'd rather have a team of slow guys that hit the ball hard than the reverse, but speed is absolutely an asset in baseball.

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Sisco had a minor league career OBP of .386. He takes a ton of pitches. He is a fairly ideal leadoff guy.

Ultimately the effect of batting order is small, but it is still dumb when a team puts a fast guy at leadoff whether he can take a walk or hit, because that is what we all thought was ideal in the 70s and 80s.

He went with the hot hand, lots of managers do that.   I wouldn't complain unless Mullins becomes a regular at the top of the order.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, weams said:

There is no real positive advantage to speed other than on defense. I guess the first to third thing is a thing. 

Come on, you don’t actually believe that, right?

[weams]

3 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Come on, you don’t actually believe that, right?

Very limited positive impact. And most speedy guys take baserunning risks to negate what would otherwise be a positive. J.J. Hardy scored anyway.  I have seen many players making the first or last out at third. Or trying to stretch to second. Or trying to score because two are out. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, weams said:

There is no real positive advantage to speed other than on defense. I guess the first to third thing is a thing. 

That's an exaggeration.  In baserunning plus double plays the difference between Rickey and Paul Konerko was over 20 wins.

Sure, overall basestealing is a net negative.  But then there are guys like Willie Wilson who got about 2/3rds of his 45 career WAR from being really fast.

In '62 Maury Wills went 104-for-117 stealing bases.  In baserunning and avoiding DPs he was over +20 runs.  On defense he's now seen as a -2 shortstop.  But he had a six-win season with a 99 OPS+ because speed.

Also, fast players tend to age better than slow players.  When Austin Hays is 33 he will probably still be able to play a corner (assuming he somehow figures out how to stay off the IL).  There's only so many positions you can slide down to if you're already slow at 23.

This is a bit dated, but a passage from a large rookie study Bill James published in the 1987 Baseball Abstract (nice little benefit of COVID teleworking, all my old baseball books are always five feet away):

Quote

Many players, perhaps most players, are driven out of the major leagues indirectly because they lose their speed.  If you can create seven runs a game (i.e. per 27 outs made) it doesn't matter how fast you are; you can play first base or DH.  But as a player loses speed as he ages, he loses the ability to play the positions (CF, SS, 2B) at which offensive ability is scarce, and thus loses the ability to stay in the majors without creating seven runs a game.

[Ruzious]

17 minutes ago, weams said:

Very limited positive impact. And most speedy guys take baserunning risks to negate what would otherwise be a positive. J.J. Hardy scored anyway.  I have seen many players making the first or last out at third. Or trying to stretch to second. Or trying to score because two are out. 

Making outs on the bases has more to do with poor base-running than speed.  Speed has a big impact in both offense and defense.  It played a major role in KC getting to the 2014 and 2015 WS's.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, weams said:

There is no real positive advantage to speed other than on defense. I guess the first to third thing is a thing. 

Infield hits.  

I think there are some definite advantages to speed if the speedy player is a smart baserunner.    Per Baseball-Ref, in 2019 the difference in Baserunning runs between the best and worst player was 11 runs.    By team, the difference was 21 runs.    Not a big effect, but it’s there.    And those numbers don’t include infield hits and the batter taking extra bases on a batted ball (getting a double instead of a single or a triple instead of a double).   
 

 

[survivedc]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Infield hits.  

I think there are some definite advantages to speed if the speedy player is a smart baserunner.    Per Baseball-Ref, in 2019 the difference in Baserunning runs between the best and worst player was 11 runs.    By team, the difference was 21 runs.    Not a big effect, but it’s there.    And those numbers don’t include infield hits and the batter taking extra bases on a batted ball (getting a double instead of a single or a triple instead of a double).   
 

 

I’m sure this isn’t as frequent as I’d like to think but how about when a pitcher is concerned about a fast base runner and leaves a pitch where he shouldn’t? 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, accinfo said:

I would like to see Mountcastle moved up to batting 2nd right now with Santander batting 3rd.  To me Ryan will see more fastballs ahead of one of the hottest hitters in baseball.  

I think we will see Santander bat 2nd and Iglesias bat 3rd because Iglesias batting 3rd worked before he was put on the IL.

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, SteveA said:

He went with the hot hand, lots of managers do that.   I wouldn't complain unless Mullins becomes a regular at the top of the order.

Its very possible that you may have to complain.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I’m sure this isn’t as frequent as I’d like to think but how about when a pitcher is concerned about a fast base runner and leaves a pitch where he shouldn’t? 

From page 326 of The Book, by Tango, Lichtman, et al:

The disruptive runner has an enormously negative influence on the batter, enough to almost completely offset the disruption caused to the defense.

A stolen base attempt reduces the wOBA of the batter by 22 points, compared to the situation if the runner elected not to attempt to steal.

Overall the batter is negatively impacted by stuff going on on the bases, basically enough to cancel out any gains on the bases.

[survivedc]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From page 326 of The Book, by Tango, Lichtman, et al:

 

 

 

 

Overall the batter is negatively impacted by stuff going on on the bases, basically enough to cancel out any gains on the bases.

That’s really cool that they track that. 
 

I remember Melvin Mora and somebody (Jay Payton?) getting into it a bunch of years ago when I think Mora was at the plate and Payton stole.

[Just Regular]

All this Sisco leadoff talk brought Seth Smith back to mind.  235 out of 373 PA batting 1st his one year here. 

Yesterday Jorge Polanco, Joey Votto, Ian Happ, Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher, Nick Solak, Andrew McCutchen and Mike Yastrzemski also lead off in the category of hitters I at least somewhat off the top of my head think of as OBP and not much else (yes I am holding Yaz ISO boost at arm's length here).

I can see prioritizing his and Severino's reps this week, and then pre-Adley if both still here. 

Man I hope Murph's 2022 Adley call too pessimistic, but TBD how much this lost year splashes the previous expectations pool.  I doubt my prior 5.1.2021 give or take a few weeks happening now, but a whole other year feels drastic.   We've still got Bart and Bohm ~20 games into their second full pro year, despite them missing April/May/June game time the same as Adley.

[MurphDogg]

20 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Man I hope Murph's 2022 Adley call too pessimistic, but TBD how much this lost year splashes the previous expectations pool.  I doubt my prior 5.1.2021 give or take a few weeks happening now, but a whole other year feels drastic.   We've still got Bart and Bohm ~20 games into their second full pro year, despite them missing April/May/June game time the same as Adley.

They missed 20 games after having played and excelled at A+, AA and the Arizona Fall League.

I just don't see how a whole season at the alternate site will equal that much in-game development.

I hope it is pessimistic too, but I think Adley opens next year at Bowie, moves to Norfolk midway through the season and then plays in the AFL next year. 

Then he gets the two week or eight week treatment in 2022.

We'll see what happen, I hope I am wrong, because everything I read from scouts suggests that he should be ready next year (if not this year).