Szymborski on Orioles progress

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimores-losing-season-has-been-a-productive-one/

In which Tanner Scott is linked to Michael Kopech, and five-year ZIPS projections actually look quite meh.

Hays's omission and Scott's inclusion on the laundry list something I noticed.   On the dirt we get an Alberto in and Ruiz out.

[Frobby]

Good article.   The projections don’t wow anyone, and I think he’s low on Mountcastle.    But it’s a solid writeup.    

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Good article.   The projections don’t wow anyone, and I think he’s low on Mountcastle.    But it’s a solid writeup.    

I received an autographed Ryan Mountcastle rookie card in the mail today, he better be wrong about him.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I received an autographed Ryan Mountcastle rookie card in the mail today, he better be wrong about him.

 

I'm pretty stoked about "downright adequate".

I think that if he can maintain a 9.5% walk rate he'll be just fine.

[Just Regular]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=5,d

I'll just throw it here as Alberto got Szymborski recognition and I don't see a recent thread for him.

#1 MLB-wide in Swing rate by a lot.  I heard it in a bit on Luis Robert being 2nd.  I'm not good enough at the FG custom leaderboards to replicate but the analyst mentioned Alberto's 61% being the top seasonal figure going back to 2010, in which a couple of Adam Jones seasons were also among the very top results.

In 2019, Alberto was 5th among qualifiers at 58%.   I'm not sure if this is good/bad/indifferent for the kind of hitter he is; I just didn't know he was lapping the field in Swing% quite like that.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OrioleDog said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=5,d

I'll just throw it here as Alberto got Szymborski recognition and I don't see a recent thread for him.

#1 MLB-wide in Swing rate by a lot.  I heard it in a bit on Luis Robert being 2nd.  I'm not good enough at the FG custom leaderboards to replicate but the analyst mentioned Alberto's 61% being the top seasonal figure going back to 2010, in which a couple of Adam Jones seasons were also among the very top results.

In 2019, Alberto was 5th among qualifiers at 58%.   I'm not sure if this is good/bad/indifferent for the kind of hitter he is; I just didn't know he was lapping the field in Swing% quite like that.

Shame he didn't have Buck to publicly dress him down when he was in the minors. 

[Sports Guy]

The common issue with most of these guys is a poor BA.  These numbers change if they can outperform those BA totals.

That being said, Mountcastle is the only one I think he’s off on.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Good article.   The projections don’t wow anyone, and I think he’s low on Mountcastle.    But it’s a solid writeup.    

I didn't think it represented the O's that well.

[now]

Talk about "lack of imagination..." -- I'm talking about the ZiPS figures, not Szymborski or the Orioles. Hardly seems worth running the projections over five years if there's so little variation from year to year for each of those players. Maybe I'm just spoiled by wildly fluctuating careers in baseball sim games... or reality itself.

[Aglets]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

I didn't think it represented the O's that well.

You think it should have been predicting playoffs in 2021 I assume?   

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

You think it should have been predicting playoffs in 2021 I assume?   

No.  I think if he was going to talk about the O's players he should cover the most important points.

If the title is  "Baltimore's losing  season has been a Productive One."  Then why pick Alberto, Severino/Sisco and Nunez?   Why not pick Kremer, Akin, Lopez, Mullins and Hays?  All of those players mean more to the O's future.

He says Alberto may be an adequate stopgap and projects him to have a 300ish OBP.  How do those two things go together,   Fact is his inability to hit right-handed pitching shown  in his .269 -.285 OBP over the last two season may cost him his job.  Elias will decide if that kind of production is worth 3M in salary arbitration. And I don't think its looking that look for Hanser to stay with the O's.   The O's have Bannon,  Herrera (who is getting rave reviews for the Bowie camp), Wilkerson who hit  for a .787 OPS vs righties in 2019 plus many cheaper waiver wire alternatives that Elias will have to pick from.

He doesn't even mention Adley Rutschman when reviewing the catchers.  We know that Severino and Sisco are just holding down the spot until he arrives.  So if the article is about the future then talk about the players that will be part of the core.  Don't ignore them.

If the article is about the productivity for the Orioles then why focus on Nunez who he says took a step back and may be traded.   Again projecting his 300ish OBP.   I agree he may be traded but I don't think it fits the article as well as other O's players he could have picked.

In many cases I don't think the projections fit the title.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see how Mullins means more to the future than Nunez or Sisco.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see how Mullins means more to the future than Nunez or Sisco.

I haven't heard Hyde project Nunez or Sisco as Gold Glovers at a high skill position the way he has with Mullins.

[hoosiers]

These projections seems light.  Most likely case is that none of these guys put together a 1.5 WAR year?

I think we have seen really good things from Mountcastle and if he improves just another smidge or two with plate discipline then he might become a 3, 4. 5 on a contending team.

Same for Means.  Not sure what was wrong earlier in the year, but he has been masterful these past few games.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I haven't heard Hyde project Nunez or Sisco as Gold Glovers at a high skill position the way he has with Mullins.

Mullins will never be a GG and he will never play enough to even qualify for it.

All Hyde is doing is trying to give a player confidence.

BTw, for what I read, Hyde said that he thinks Mullins should get GG votes this year.  I don’t know that he has projected him to be a future GGer.  Do you have a link with him saying that?