Elias thoughts on 2020 season and beyond

[NCRaven]

Thi is all about the possibility that the 2021 season will be shortened.  The Orioles saved a ton of money on Davis this season.  If they can save a chunk again next year, they will wait to let it play out.

[hoosiers]

Seems just like the old SG to take a few quotes and then start bashing our FO and ownership for "dumb" things.

IMO, the most telling quote in the link was also the one ME explained.  The revenue situation is uncertain.  ME is quoted as saying, "We can't estimate our revenue, our attendance ....  We can't estimate various things that we look at when we look at a player or roster budget."  In light of such uncertainty, it is quite a leap to say the FO is dumb for not pursuing a particular player - in this case, Stroman.  Most prudent, well-run businesses would operate in such as manner given the uncertainty.

There are multiple ways to save $ with Chris Davis including his negotiating a settlement for possible retirement, a shortened season, etc.  All of these things are more important today than opening up Davis' roster spot.  Let's see what happens.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Seems just like the old SG to take a few quotes and then start bashing our FO and ownership for "dumb" things.

IMO, the most telling quote in the link was also the one ME explained.  The revenue situation is uncertain.  ME is quoted as saying, "We can't estimate our revenue, our attendance ....  We can't estimate various things that we look at when we look at a player or roster budget."  In light of such uncertainty, it is quite a leap to say the FO is dumb for not pursuing a particular player - in this case, Stroman.  Most prudent, well-run businesses would operate in such as manner given the uncertainty.

There are multiple ways to save $ with Chris Davis including his negotiating a settlement for possible retirement, a shortened season, etc.  All of these things are more important today than opening up Davis' roster spot.  Let's see what happens.

 

If you think this is a good ownership group, then I don’t know what to tell you.  
 

And yes, they don’t know the revenue and while it’s a wait and see what Stroman gets, this offseason could also represent an offseason where you can get a player for less than you should, because of the uncertainty from everyone.  I think it’s a poor idea to let opportunities like that pass you by.  It’s a short term issue that you value over the long term good of the team and organization.  That’s poor management. But I don’t think that’s Elias’ fault.  It’s all on ownership.

[hoosiers]

To be clear - this is an "opportunity" that you believe will exist regarding Marcus Stroman and, in advance of this pending situation which exists in your head, you are bashing our ownership group in advance for their non-participation - fully aware of a massive uncertainty in our budget and how major league baseball will be played in 2021.

Under what circumstances in the Marcus Stroman sweepstakes will you consider this fiction in your head to not have been an opportunity?  How many teams would have to be involved in pursuing Stroman?  What sort of contract length and duration would Stroman have to sign before you admit Stroman's signing will not represent any "opportunity"?  

I expect Stroman to be on lists of top 10 2021 free agents and have now already found him on one - as the second most valuable or most sought after starting pitcher after Trevor Bauer.  

I don't have an issue with investing into a future team with a good signing a year or two in advance or actually competing.  Given our financial situation, I don't think this off-season will be one where we attempt such a signing and I seriously doubt the Os will compete will much more currently competitive and well-financed for Marcus Stroman.

[Sports Guy]

First of all, I’m not worried about the ownership going broke because they sign Stroman.  That’s all bs.  You can choose to believe it if you want but it’s bs.

I don’t know what to expect out of his market.  He doesn’t get a lot of Ks, he’s approaching 30 and he didn’t pitch at all this year.  If some team is going to go 5+ years and pay him 22M+ a year, so be it.  I’m not interested in that.  But 4 or less years at 20M or less?  Yes, I think that’s an opportunity that we should jump on.  I think he would be a great staff leader and while we certainly want to see a better IF defense with a GB pitcher, I think overall he’s a guy to get “one year too early”.

And I agree that I doubt they make this type of investment, particularly after these comments but, as I said, I think it’s a terrible decision driven by a poor ownership group.  
 

Not that long ago, the Os carried a 160m payroll.  No one on the team makes any money outside of a few guys and really, in this scenario, I would trade one of them (Cobb) while trying to save as much money as possible on the deal.  (Probably could eat around half his contract and move him). Davis is an obvious sunk cost. Beyond that, most of the team is making nothing.  Even in an unpredictable revenue year (I believe fans will be back but whatever), this organization can afford a payroll of 70ishM or less.  

[Philip]

6 hours ago, hoosiers said:

To be clear - this is an "opportunity" that you believe will exist regarding Marcus Stroman and, in advance of this pending situation which exists in your head, you are bashing our ownership group in advance for their non-participation - fully aware of a massive uncertainty in our budget and how major league baseball will be played in 2021.

Under what circumstances in the Marcus Stroman sweepstakes will you consider this fiction in your head to not have been an opportunity?  How many teams would have to be involved in pursuing Stroman?  What sort of contract length and duration would Stroman have to sign before you admit Stroman's signing will not represent any "opportunity"?  

I expect Stroman to be on lists of top 10 2021 free agents and have now already found him on one - as the second most valuable or most sought after starting pitcher after Trevor Bauer.  

I don't have an issue with investing into a future team with a good signing a year or two in advance or actually competing.  Given our financial situation, I don't think this off-season will be one where we attempt such a signing and I seriously doubt the Os will compete will much more currently competitive and well-financed for Marcus Stroman.

Stroman, if he is smart, will take a large guaranteed one year deal. Tons of money, and he can start again next year after the new CBA.

I would imagine that will be the mode of operation for most if not all of the high dollar free agents.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I’m not worried about the ownership going broke because they sign Stroman.  That’s all bs.  You can choose to believe it if you want but it’s bs.

I don’t know what to expect out of his market.  He doesn’t get a lot of Ks, he’s approaching 30 and he didn’t pitch at all this year.  If some team is going to go 5+ years and pay him 22M+ a year, so be it.  I’m not interested in that.  But 4 or less years at 20M or less?  Yes, I think that’s an opportunity that we should jump on.  I think he would be a great staff leader and while we certainly want to see a better IF defense with a GB pitcher, I think overall he’s a guy to get “one year too early”.

And I agree that I doubt they make this type of investment, particularly after these comments but, as I said, I think it’s a terrible decision driven by a poor ownership group.  
 

Not that long ago, the Os carried a 160m payroll.  No one on the team makes any money outside of a few guys and really, in this scenario, I would trade one of them (Cobb) while trying to save as much money as possible on the deal.  (Probably could eat around half his contract and move him). Davis is an obvious sunk cost. Beyond that, most of the team is making nothing.  Even in an unpredictable revenue year (I believe fans will be back but whatever), this organization can afford a payroll of 70ishM or less.  

I think given our last two significant forays into the FA starting pitcher market (Ubaldo and Cobb), ownership would be extremely unlikely to spend in the (say) 4/$70 mm range for a starting pitcher who didn’t pitch this year.    And I wouldn’t necessarily blame them, considering that we aren’t likely to contend with or without Stroman next year.    

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think given our last two significant forays into the FA starting pitcher market (Ubaldo and Cobb), ownership would be extremely unlikely to spend in the (say) 4/$70 mm range for a starting pitcher who didn’t pitch this year.    And I wouldn’t necessarily blame them, considering that we aren’t likely to contend with or without Stroman next year.    

Gallardo cost a pick so I'd include him.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I’m not worried about the ownership going broke because they sign Stroman.  That’s all bs.  You can choose to believe it if you want but it’s bs.

....

Not that long ago, the Os carried a 160m payroll.  

Great strawman. That aside, do you acknowledge that every team operates within the constraints of a budget? 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Gallardo cost a pick so I'd include him.

I thought of including either Gallardo or Cashner, but felt the financial commitment wasn’t enough to warrant inclusion.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I thought of including either Gallardo or Cashner, but felt the financial commitment wasn’t enough to warrant inclusion.   

Fair enough.

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Great strawman. That aside, do you acknowledge that every team operates within the constraints of a budget? 

Of course...I also acknowledge that the Os ownership cares more about lining their pockets than they do the greater good of the franchise.

They can easily carry a payroll way higher than they have right now, even with the uncertainty of what 2021 could bring.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think given our last two significant forays into the FA starting pitcher market (Ubaldo and Cobb), ownership would be extremely unlikely to spend in the (say) 4/$70 mm range for a starting pitcher who didn’t pitch this year.    And I wouldn’t necessarily blame them, considering that we aren’t likely to contend with or without Stroman next year.    

Well the second part of your argument is extremely short sighted imo.

The first part makes little sense since Stroman is better than those guys, doesn’t have nearly the risk Ubaldo did and doesn’t have the injury history Cobb had.

BTw, I’m not saying you are wrong with these arguments.  I’m saying they are the exact terrible arguments I expect from our ownership.

[sportsfan8703]

At this point, the only things I’d like to be able so see Elias do is,

- Spend our entire international allotment. Maybe even snag a “top” player. 
 

-DFA Davis. 
 

Those two things are seemingly out of his control though, which is alarming. I hope not drafting Martin doesn’t come back to bite us. Overall, I think he’s done about as good as we could have hoped. We might all have a more accuarate assessment if we could’ve seen our MILB players have a season this year. 
 

The potential cons so far is that he was forced to “give” away Bundy and Villar, but what did they do for the teams they were traded too, or what would they have done for us?  
 

It will be big to see how he handles the guys eligible for Arb this offseason, the draft, and if we will spend our full int’l allotment. 

[weams]

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1314393885230145538?s=21