What are the odds and when?

[wildcard]

What are the odds the O's will add:

A starting Shortstop?  

I would guess about 75%.   If Galvis salary falls to 3M I think they will.  But he could sign elsewhere.  The O's could sign other SS but will they be better than Sanchez or Martin?  I think that is questionable.  When?  I think the ST does not begin until April 1st, so I think prices fall in mid to late Feb.

A veteran Starter?   

I would guess the odds are 99.68% the O's will add a starter.  Probably on a minor league contract with an invite  to ST.    When? Late Jan or in Feb.

Will the O's bring back Alberto?

I would guess 50%.   Elias says he wants him back but on the teams terms.   That may be a minor league contract with a 1m to 1.5m salary if he makes the team.   Alberto has value as a platoon player vs lefties.   He could platoon at 3B  and backup 2B.   The 50% is because some another team may sign him to a better contract.  When?  Late Jan or Feb.

What do you think the odds are the O's add these or other players?

[Frobby]

I think they’ll add someone to compete for the SS job, but the player(a) may not be the presumptive starter like Iglesias was.   

I’m a bit pessimistic about Galvis falling into our price range.   He commanded 2/$9 mm two years ago and put up two pretty solid seasons.    I’d think he’d be worth at least 1/$4 mm or 2/$7 mm to some team this time around.   But we’ll see.   
 

[Sports Guy]

I’m sure they will add some guys in the areas mentioned but does it matter?

They aren’t likely to add anyone that is good and I don’t really see the point.

The team will be just as good with Martin or McCoy at SS as they will with anyone they will sign and while they could use a 5th starter in the early part of the year, that starter likely isn’t going to be much better than if you just throw Zimmerman, Wells or Lowther out there.

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m sure they will add some guys in the areas mentioned but does it matter?

They aren’t likely to add anyone that is good and I don’t really see the point.

The team will be just as good with Martin or McCoy at SS as they will with anyone they will sign and while they could use a 5th starter in the early part of the year, that starter likely isn’t going to be much better than if you just throw Zimmerman, Wells or Lowther out there.

It’s absurd to think the O’s couldn’t find someone better than Martin or McCoy.   They certainly did last year.   I’m hoping the 2021 version of Martin is better than the sub-replacement level 2019 version, but that’s just based on pure hope, not evidence.   

Will the O’s be a bad team either way?    Sure.   But there’s a difference between bad and uncompetitive.   
 

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s absurd to think the O’s couldn’t find someone better than Martin or McCoy.   They certainly did last year.   I’m hoping the 2021 version of Martin is better than the sub-replacement level 2019 version, but that’s just based on pure hope, not evidence.   

Will the O’s be a bad team either way?    Sure.   But there’s a difference between bad and uncompetitive.   
 

They easily COULD find someone better. The question is will they?  

[oriole]

99.68% is specific 

Anyways, I agree on the veteran starter front. I don’t think they bring back Alberto though and as for a starting SS...everything would have to go right. I think a minor league depth signing is more likely. 

[LookinUp]

I wonder what Alberto could make in Japan or Korea. Seems to me like the type of guy who could go there and crush it.