The big 2021 arbitration cases remaining

[Frobby]

Arb hearings are starting, so I thought I’d list the biggies:

Carlos Correa demanded $12.5 mm, Astros offered $9.75 mm.

Dansby Swanson demanded $6.6 mm, the Braves offered $6.0 mm.

Jack Flaherty demanded $3.9 mm, the Cardinals offered $3.0 mm.

Ian Happ demanded $4.1 mm, the Cubs offered $3.25 mm.

Walker Buehler demanded $4.15 mm, the Dodgers offered $3.3 mm.

Ryan Yarbrough demanded $3.1 mm, the Rays offered $2.3 mm.

I haven’t seen when these are scheduled, but I assume very soon, since Santander’s hearing apparently occurred yesterday.    If I get time this weekend, I’ll try to analyze these.   It’s a really unpredictable year because it’s hard to guess how the partial season last year will be weighed.

I will say that I think Correa will win his case.    I’ll get into my reasons why later.    

[Frobby]

Carlos Correa $12.5 mm demand, Astros $9.75 mm offer.

I am going to try to take on a few of these today, starting with the big one, Correa.    His is the only case where the player and the team are more than $1 mm apart.

Correa earned $5 mm in his Arb 1 year, having been worth 21.0 rWAR in his first 3+ seasons and coming off a 2.7 rWAR season.   In 2019, he had a 3.5 rWAR season and earned a raise in Arb 2 to $8 mm.    He followed that up with 1.9 rWAR in the short 60 game season, which projects to 5.0 rWAR in a 162 game season.   He is seeking a $4.5 mm raise, or 56% of his expected 2020 salary.    (Of course, he did not receive $8 mm in 2020, but about $3 mm in the shortened season.)   The Astros are offering a $1.75 mm raise, or 22%.

For me there are three pretty obvious comps for Correa.   The first is Corey Seager, who also was an Arb 3 this year.  Seager received a $4 mm salary in 2019, having been worth 12.4 rWAR to that point but only 0.3  rWAR in 2018, spending much of that year on the IL.    In 2019 he was worth 3.3 rWAR and got a raise to $7 mm in Arb 2.    In last year's short season he was worth 2.1 mm and settled with the Dodgers for $13.75 mm, a $6.75 mm raise and 96% higher than his anticipated 2020 salary.

The second comp is Javier Baez.   He received $5.25 mm in Arb 1 coming off a 5.8 rWAR season with 10.8 rWAR accumulated to that point..   In 2019 he was worth 6 rWAR and got a raise to $10 mm.   In the shortened 2020 season, he was worth 0.9 rWAR.   He settled with the Cubs at $11.65 mm, a $1.65 mm raise or 16.5%.   

The third comp is Francisco Lindor.    He received $10 mm in Arb 1 coming off a 7.8 rWAR season and having been worth 22.8 rWAR to that point.   He had a 5.0 rWAR season in 2019 and received a raise to $17.5 mm.    He was worth 1.1 rWAR in the shortened 2020 season and settled with the Mets for $22.3 mm, a raise of $4.8 mm or 30%.    

Looking at these, my observations are:

1.  Correa has had a better career to this point than either Seager or Baez, having been worth 26.3 rWAR to Seager's 17.8 and Baez's 12.7.    He's very close to Lindor's 28.7 rWAR, yet is asking for only 56% of Lindor's salary.

2.  Correa's 2020 season (1.9 rWAR) was much closer to Seager's (2.1) than Lindor's (1.1) or Baez's (0.9).   In my mind, he deserve a much bigger raise than Baez got, yet the Astros are offering only a  $100 k bigger raise than Baez got, and their offer would have him making $1.9 mm less than Baez despite having had a much better career to this point and a much better 2020 season.    The $4.75 mm raise he's seeking is just short of the $4.8 mm raise Lindor got, and Correa had the better season.    (However, it is a bigger percentage raise than Lindor got.)

Keeping in mind that the midpoint between Correa's $12.5 mm demand and the Astros' $9.75 mm offer is $11.125 mm, I think Correa's demand is much more reasonable than the Astros' offer.    I think Correa is highly likely to win his case, and probably shouldn't settle anywhere south of $12 mm.

I recall that the Astros took a similar tack with George Springer last year, and ended up settling with him much closer to Springer's figure than their own.

Edit -- If you look at last year's fWAR numbers or solely at last year's offensive numbers, Correa's case is not as strong as I presented it above.    Quick summary:

Correa 0.9 fWAR. .708 OPS

Seager 1.9 fWAR, .923 OPS = $6.75 mm raise

Baez 0.0 fWAR, .599 OPS = $1.65 mm raise

Lindor: 1.8 fWAR, .750 OPS = $4.8 mm raise

I still think that favors Correa's side of the case.    

 

[Can_of_corn]

 

[Just Regular]

Sensible pound-wise choice by Click chasing retention.   I certainly get why he's trying to, and will be a little surprised if he can pull it off, but I thought that about Brantley too.   You can kind of imagine if most other players shun them as I think at least some will that clinging tightly to what they have is a bigger part of the path to ongoing competitiveness.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Well, that would have been good to know!    I see this as a good deal for the Astros, obviously.  Glad Correa got more than the midpoint.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, that would have been good to know!    I see this as a good deal for the Astros, obviously.  Glad Correa got more than the midpoint.

I saw your post and I was ...didn't he settle?  So I went and dug it up.

[Frobby]

Walker Buehler $4.15 mm, Dodgers $3.3 mm

Jack Flaherty $3.9 mm, Cardinals $3.0 mm

Ryan Yarbrough $3.1 mm, Rays $2.3 mm

 I figure it makes sense to consider these three Arb 1 starting pitchers simultaneously.

Buehler is a Super Two with 2.168 years of service.    He made 8 starts (36.2 IP) in 2020, going 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA (124 ERA+), good for 0.3 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR.   In his career, he’s thrown 365 innings to a 3.15 ERA (129 ERA+), going 24-9, worth 5.7 rWAR, 8.5 fWAR.

Flaherty did not have a very good year in 2020, going 4-3 in 40.1 IP with a 4.91 ERA (88 ERA+) and missing three starts, good for -0.3 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR.  His K/9 was very good but his walks were up and his HR/FB rate was extremely high.   In his career, Flaherty has thrown 409 innings to a 3.77 ERA (122 ERA+), worth 8.0 rWAR, 7.6 fWAR.

Yarbrough is a Super Two with 2.147 years of service.   He went 1-4 for the Rays in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances (55.2 IP), throwing to a 3.56 ERA (119 ERA+), worth 1.2 rWAR and 1.0 fWAR.   In his career, in 344 IP he’s 10-9 with a 3.94 ERA (108 ERA+), worth 3.5 rWAR and 4.5 fWAR.

Here are some comps to other Arb 1 starters who settled this year:

Luis Castillo, $4.2 mm: Went 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA (148 ERA+) in 70 IP, worth 1.0 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR.   In his career, he’s thrown 519 IP to a 3.62 ERA (124 ERA+), going 32-33, worth 9.1 rWAR, 10.5 fWAR  

Lucas Giolito, $4.15 mm: Went 4-3 in 72.1 IP with a 3.49 ERA (128 ERA+), worth 0.8 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR.   In his career, he’s gone 31-29 with a 4.44 ERA (99 ERA+) in 489 IP, worth 6.5 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR.

Max Fried, $3.5 mm: Went 7-0 in 56 IP with a 2.25 ERA (212 ERA+), worth 2.9 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.   In his career he’s thrown 281 IP and has gone 26-11 with a 3.52 ERA (130 ERA+), worth 6.8 rWAR, 5.1 fWAR.

Brad Keller, $3.35 mm: Went 5-3 in 54.2 IP with a 2.47 ERA (186 ERA+), worth 1.7 rWAR, 1.3 fWAR.   In his career he has gone 21-23 with a 3.50 ERA in 360 IP, worth 8.3 rWAR, 6.1 fWAR

Brandon Woodruff, $3.275 mm:  He’s a Super Two with 2.162 years of service.   This year he went 3-5 in 73.2 IP with a 3.05 ERA (149 ERA+), worth 2.1 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR.   In his career he’s thrown 280 IP to a 3.66 ERA (121 ERA+), worth 6.5 rWAR, 6.3 fWAR.

Antonio Senzatela, $3.0 mm: Went 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA (153 ERA+) in 73.2 IP worth 2.8 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.   In his career he’s thrown 423 innings to a 5.00 ERA (101 ERA+), worth 5.2 rWAR, 4.3 fWAR.   Note that he pitches in Colorado.

Well, that is a real box of chocolates.     If you go by career rWAR, Buehler has had a lesser career than any of the six comps other than Senzatela; if you go by career fWAR, he’s better than all but Castillo; if you go by career ERA+, he’s the best.    But looking at 2020, he was less valuable than any of the six, by either rWAR or fWAR.    And, the fact that he has less than three years of service hurts his case.  My gut feeling: if they go to a hearing, the Dodgers will win.   But if I were the Dodgers, I’d throw a couple hundred thousand more at Buehler and try to settle, a little shy of the halfway mark.

By career rWAR, Flaherty is short of Castillo and Keller, and above Giolito, Fried, Woodruff and Senzatela.    By fWAR, he’s only short of Castillo.    But Flaherty wasn’t good at all in 2020, worse than all six by both rWAR and fWAR.   I think his $3.9 mm is a bit aggressive but the $3.0 mm from the Cards is also too low; this one’s a coin flip and I’d just meet somewhere smack in the middle.    Gun to my head, I’d bet on Flaherty, figuring career performance should carry more weight than performance in a 60-game season.   But it’s a close one, and I’d settle if I were either party.

Yarbrough isn’t quite in the same class with the others in terms of career performance, and that’s why his demand is less than any of the others settled for, except for Senzatela.    He had a nice 2020.    The fact that he’s a Super Two hurts his case a little.    If I dig a little deeper into my pile of comps for players who were Arb 1’s before this year, I see Chris Bassitt $2.2 mm in 2020, Lance McCullers $2.45 mm in 2018, Sean Manea $3.15 mm in 2018, Steven Matz $2.625 mm in 2019, Jesus Aguilar $2.575 mm in 2020, Noah Syndergaard $2.95 mm in 2018, Zach Davies $2.6 mm in 2019, Zach Elfin $2.625 mm in 2020, Tyler Glasnow $2.05 mm in 2020, Eduardo Rodriguez $2.375 mm in 2018, Kyle Freeland $2.875 mm in 2020, Jon Gray $2.935 mm in 2019, Matt Boyd $2.6 mm in 2019, and Jose Berrios $4.05 mm in 2020.    That’s 14 guys and only two (Manea and Berrios) made more than Yarbrough is demanding now, and two (Bassitt and Glasnow) made less than the Rays are offering.   I think this one also cries out for a settlement very close to the middle, but if I have to choose, I think the Rays narrowly win this one.

Last thing I'll say: I think Giolito's agent did a great job for their client.   No way he deserved $4.15 mm based on these other comps.

[Frobby]

Flaherty had his hearing on Friday and Yarbrough had his today.   No results announced yet.  

Here’s Kevin Goldstein’s take on the process: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-arbitration-clown-show/

[Frobby]

Buehler took himself out of the arbitration game yesterday by signing a complicated two year deal with the Dodgers.   Best I can tell, he earns 2/$8 mm with some easily reached incentives that could earn him up to an additional $6 mm plus other incentives based on Cy Young voting.  Details here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/dodgers-reach-2-year-arbitration-deal-with-walker-buehler.html

[Frobby]

Ian Happ $4.1 mm, Cubs $3.25 mm

 Ian Happ had a nice short season last year, slashing .258/.361/.505 with 12 homers and 28 RBI in 57 games, worth 1.4 rWAR and 1.9 fWAR.    In his career, he has a .248/.344/.481 slash line, 62 HR and 170 RBI in 1262 PA, worth 4.6 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR.   He has 3.036 years of service.

Here are some recent comps, in declining order of Arb 1 salary:

Matt Olson is earning $5 mm this year, following a season in which he slashed .195/310/.424 with 14 HR and 42 RBI, good for 1.4 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR.   In his career he’s slashed .245/.338/.500 with 103 HR and 262 RBI, worth 13.6 rWAR, 10.2 fWAR.   He has 3.103 years of service.

Rhys Hopkins is earning $4.8 mm following a season in which he slashed .245/.384/.503 with 10 HR and 26 RBI, worth 0.9 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR.   In his career he’s slashed .239/.366/.495 with 91 HR and 255 RBI, earning 5.6 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR.   He has 3.053 years of service.

Teoscar Hernandez will earn $4.375 mm in 2021, after slashing .289/.340/.579 with 16 HR and 34 RBI, good for 1.5 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.   In his career he’s slashed .245/.309/.492 with 76 HR and 187 RBI in 1401 PA, good for 3.8 rWAR, 3.6 fWAR.   He has 3.097 years of service.

Tommy Pham earned $4.1 mm in 2019 after slashing .275/.367/.464 with 21 HR and 63 RBI, worth 2.7 rWAR, 4.1 fWAR.    To that point in his career he had slashed .279/.375/.482 with 58 HR and 171 RBI in 1458 PA, worth 10.9 rWAR, 12.3 fWAR.   He had 3.109 years of service to that point.

Kyle Schwarber earned $3.39 mm in 2019, following a season in which he slashed .238/.356/.467 with 26 HR and 61 RBI, worth 1.8 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR.   To that point in his career he had slashed .228/.339/.470 with 72 HR and 163 RBI in 1274 PA, good for 3.2 rWAR, 6.6 fWAR.   He had 3.086 years of service at the time.

Jesse Winker is earning $3.15 mm after posting a .255/.388/.544 slash line with 12 HR and 23 RBI, good for 1.3 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.     In his career Winker has slashed .280/.380/.479 with 42 HR and 119 RBI in 1038 PA, earning 2.5 rWAR, 3.8 fWAR.   He has 3.080 years of service.

Seems to me this is a case that lands in the middle, but the Cubs are guilty of lowball a bit more than Happ is guilty of highball.    I’d bet on Happ’s side if the case goes to arbitration, but a settlement not far north of the $3.675 mm midpoint would make sense for both sides.

By the way, kudos to Teoscar Hernandez's agent  for wheedling $4.375 mm from the Blue Jays for his services.    These comps suggest he's being paid well more than he would have gotten in arbitration.

[Frobby]

Dansby Swanson $6.6 mm, Braves $6.0 mm

 This is the last of the bigger arbitration cases.    After being scheduled to earn $3.15 mm in 2020 in Arb 1, Swanson had a very strong season, posting a .274/.345/.464 slash line with 10 HR and 35 RBI, worth 2.9 fWAR and 1.9 fWAR.   For his career he’s a .249/.321/.396 hitter with 50 HR and 227 RBI, worth 7.5 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR.    The defensive metrics on him vary a great deal.

Going back to the comps mentioned in my Correa post, and one more:

Carlos Correa received an increase from $5 mm to $8 mm in Arb 2 after a 3.5 rWAR season, having been worth 24.5 rWAR to that point in his career.

Corey Seager received an increase from $4 mm to $7 mm in Arb 2 after a 3.3 rWAR season, having been worth 15.7 rWAR to that point in his career.

Francisco Lindor received an increase from $10 mm to $17.5 mm in Arb 2 after a 5 rWAR season, having been worth 27.6 rWAR to that point in his career.

Javier Baez received an increase from $5.25 mm to $10 mm in Arb 2 after a 6 rWAR season, having been worth 16.9 rWAR to that point in his career.

Trea Turner received an increase from $3.725 mm to $7.45 mm in Arb 2 after a 3.3 rWAR season, having been a 14.1 rWAR player to that point in his career.

None of these comps fit Swanson very well, as all of these players have much better career numbers than Swanson.   But they buttress my thinking that Arb 2 players rarely more than double their salary, as Swanson is demanding.   So based on that, I’m thinking that the Braves’ offer of $300 k less than double Swanson’s $3.15 mm Arb 1 salary is more likely to prevail that Swanson’s demand for $300 k more than double his previous salary.   It’s a close call, though, made more complicated by the fact that last season was so short.    I’ll go with the Braves, but splitting the difference makes sense to me.

 

[Frobby]

On 2/7/2021 at 6:01 PM, Frobby said:

Gun to my head, I’d bet on Flaherty, figuring career performance should carry more weight than performance in a 60-game season.   

* * *

 I think [the Yarbrough case] also cries out for a settlement very close to the middle, but if I have to choose, I think the Rays narrowly win this one.

Correct on both counts -- Flaherty won, Yarbrough lost.

[Frobby]

On 2/14/2021 at 2:00 PM, Frobby said:

Dansby Swanson $6.6 mm, Braves $6.0 mm

* * *
None of these comps fit Swanson very well, as all of these players have much better career numbers than Swanson.   But they buttress my thinking that Arb 2 players rarely more than double their salary, as Swanson is demanding.   So based on that, I’m thinking that the Braves’ offer of $300 k less than double Swanson’s $3.15 mm Arb 1 salary is more likely to prevail that Swanson’s demand for $300 k more than double his previous salary.   It’s a close call, though, made more complicated by the fact that last season was so short.    I’ll go with the Braves, but splitting the difference makes sense to me.

Correct again - Braves won.    

[Frobby]

On 2/14/2021 at 11:35 AM, Frobby said:

Ian Happ $4.1 mm, Cubs $3.25 mm

Seems to me this is a case that lands in the middle, but the Cubs are guilty of lowball a bit more than Happ is guilty of highball.    I’d bet on Happ’s side if the case goes to arbitration

And, I’m right again.   

I predicted six cases in this thread.   Four went to arbitration and I was correct in all four.   One resulted in a one-year settlement in the direction of the side I predicted (actually, it had settled before I made my prediction, but I didn’t know that).    The last one settled in a complex two year deal where it’s impossible to say who “won.”   So, I went 5-0-1.    Not bad.  

I did guess wrong on Santander, though.   Not in this thread.