Meoli: Why the Orioles acquiring Jahmai Jones represents a new facet of their trade strategies | ANALYSIS

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I recall, a run saved actually is more valuable than a run scored, by some infinitesimal amount that has basically no impact.   @DrungoHazewood would probably know what I’m talking about and why it’s so.   But it’s largely irrelevant in real world terms.   

I think technically a run saved is worth a tiny bit more than a run scored, primarily because you're lowing the run environment and making each of your team's runs worth more.  But in the end it's small enough to not really care about. 

I suppose you could make it a philosophy to take advantage of this by always favoring defense and pitching over offense, but it would be awfully hard to tease out that it had a tangible impact.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but a run saved is not better than a run scored.   Which is what you’re really saying if you prefer Belanger to Jeter.   Jeter added a lot more runs with his bat than Belanger saved with his glove.    

Now you raise one interesting point that I’ve also heard from others: that having a good defensive SS is extra important if you have a young, inexperienced pitching staff.   Or, just a bad pitching staff.    I can see the instinctive appeal of that argument, but I’m not sure if there’s any evidence to back it up.   Are young pitchers more prone to getting rattled than more experienced pitchers if their SS makes an error behind them?    Maybe, but I’d need to see some numbers.  Do bad pitchers maximize the impact of a bad defensive play?   Well, that is logical but again I’d want to see numbers.   In either case you’d still need to weigh the impact of that compared to the difference on offense.   

Perhaps if you had two players who were nearly identical.  One a shortstop who created 50 runs with his offense and saved 5 with his glove, the other created 45 and saved 10, you could argue that you'd be very slightly better off with the latter.  But in almost any real life case things won't be close enough to use that as the differentiator.  Clearly Jeter's overall performance was more valuable than Belanger's, even with a -200 run penalty for being Derek Jeter.

[HowAboutThat]

10 hours ago, scOtt said:

I don't care about Ruiz. He might actually hit a little. I want Sanchez tho, at 2B. You know, where he won a Gold Glove?

Yes I agree completely about playing Sanchez at second base, is anyone suggesting anything different?

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Like who?  

Anybody? Ruiz is that bad. I don’t mind excellent defense and a terrible bat, and I am a little bit less tolerant of an excellent bat and terrible defense, But when you’re bad at both, there’s no reason for you to be around unless you’re married to the bosses daughter.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Anybody? Ruiz is that bad. I don’t mind excellent defense and a terrible bat, and I am a little bit less tolerant of an excellent bat and terrible defense, But when you’re bad at both, there’s no reason for you to be around unless you’re married to the bosses daughter.

A bit?

[HowAboutThat]

43 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I hope that's not the case. He has talked about the Tampa model. If someone offers an elite prospect that is further off, I would hope we take that deal. 

Oh of course he would, but that’s a hypothetical that’s not going to happen. I don’t think we have anybody in the system who is tradable for an elite prospect, not even our own elite prospect.

But this trade may represent a switch from acquiring possible future production in several young players to acquiring probable near term production in a single player.

If that is true, then it does indicate that his focus is no longer on expanding the system and is now on specific players to fill specific roles with average or better production

[Yardball85]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Meoli continues to show he's one of the best Orioles reporters the Sun has had in awhile. 

100%.  With every article.  Great journalist.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes I agree completely about playing Sanchez at second base, is anyone suggesting anything different?

I am wait and see on Sanchez at 2B.   I think Valaika may give him a run for his money at 2B.   Last season Valaika was a 2 way player.   Both offense and defense.   Sanchez is a one way player.  Just defense.    I don't know how it turns out but it should be interesting to watch.

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Delete cookies or view in private viewing mode

Or pay. Worthwhile content is worth paying for. I’m a paying member here, and I’m very grateful for that. 24 bucks a year is nothing.

The trick is finding the worthwhile content, I have a free subscription to The Athletic but I wouldn’t pay, because overall the writers there aren’t that good.

 

[Sports Guy]

Yea, it’s always been said that a run saves is worth more than a run scored.

[Explosivo]

Let me play Devil's Advocate on Ruiz. Throughout his career his defense was horrible at third. It's what got him booted from his previous team so he works his ass off and last year we saw some good plays from him. At the start of the season, he was hitting well, at the end, well, not so much. My point is, Ruiz knows what he needs to work on and I trust our coaches to get the highest possible return out of him. He clearly wants to unlock his swing and be consistent and as we have seen with his rise in defense, so too should we expect to see a rise in his offense. He had 9 homers in 54 games in 2020 vs. 12 in 152 in 2019, that's an uptick for sure. The average fell ten points from 2019 to 2020 so that's not a good sign. Eh, you guys are right, he's just a stop gap. Isn't he only signed for a one year deal?

[Just Regular]

 

 

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Timing the first wave is one thing, but if you want sustained success you need to keep a pipeline of talent open. 

While 2012-2016 was a lot of fun, I'd rather the fun last longer.

Most AL wins in a 5-year span was a big accomplishment, but probably by the end of this year 2012-2021 will be a neat decade.  I haven't done the math but pretty sure Most AL losses in a 5-year span is in play.

Hopefully '22 will be able to give '12 a run for its money.

[MCO'sFan]

On 2/6/2021 at 1:01 PM, Sports Guy said:

I can’t read the article but disagree with the premise it seems to have.

First of all, the Os have done nothing but draft college bats.  College bats, if good, can move fast.  Elias very clearly has thoughts on contending in the next 1-2 seasons and is and has been acquiring players who can help then.

He has targeted college arms in trades as well.

Yes, he has also gone the wild card, lottery ticket route but that’s also probably more out of necessity in many ways as well.

I mentioned the premise of the article in the original Cobb trade thread. I posed it more in the form of a question. I think that your point about the college bats kind of points in the same direction and not away from it. He drafted college bats that are usually 2-3 years away. As we see those bats getting closer to or entering the upper levels the Jones deal slides right into that timeline. But, I am not certain that is ME's plan I wondered out loud if it could be. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Philip said:

Or pay. Worthwhile content is worth paying for. I’m a paying member here, and I’m very grateful for that. 24 bucks a year is nothing.

The trick is finding the worthwhile content, I have a free subscription to The Athletic but I wouldn’t pay, because overall the writers there aren’t that good.

 

I pay for the 99 cents subscription to the Sun as I read it everyday. But, someone who only views 1 or 2 times per month see,s excessive 

[scOtt]

5 hours ago, Philip said:

Or pay. Worthwhile content is worth paying for. I’m a paying member here, and I’m very grateful for that. 24 bucks a year is nothing.

The trick is finding the worthwhile content, I have a free subscription to The Athletic but I wouldn’t pay, because overall the writers there aren’t that good.

 

I pay here (not anymore. Thanks Tony!) but I can't afford more. And if I could it wouldn't be the Balt Sun!