Fangraphs gives Os 0.0% of making playoffs

[SteveA]

21 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

When you think of it in terms of the division we play in, it's true. Central or West gives us at least fractions of a point.

AL East ain't all that it's cracked up to be.

Yankees have a great lineup and bullpen, a lot of questions at starting pitching.

Rays lose Snell and Morton and replace them with reclamation projects.   They are a well run team and should be in the neighborhood of 90 like usual.

Jays spending money, we'll see what it all adds up to.   They have a big variance between floor and ceiling in my mind, that will be interesting to watch.

Red Sox look like a team that will be fighting to top .500.

[Just Regular]

Some of this is the .523 Strength of Schedule forecast for Orioles opponents.

The other 29 teams are in a band from .484 to .510, so our gap from the 29th hardest schedule is another 50% atop the entire range.

Its often been this way.   By the time we're out of last place, we're usually also in the Top Half of MLB.

Plus just the inputs they use, the algorithms can't help but think things like "Chris Sale is still a Star" and "Adley Rutschman Can't Play".

[Ripken]

[OFFNY]

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[LookinUp]

The O's start out hot behind a fresh and resurgent King Felix and Harvey. Hays, Santander, Mancini and Mountcastle carry the team offensively. The defense is stellar. They're within 5 games on July 28. They trade for a soon to be FA 2B.

With they hype, they promote the next cavalry. Grayson, DL Hall, Baumann and Adley all get promoted a la Machado. Covid has calmed down. The Yard is packed. The ultimate surprise is they promote young Gunnar Henderson, who has flown up prospect lists in the first half of the season.

To put them over the top, they need the ultimate DH. Enter Renato Nunez! He goes on a home run streak like no other.

Their odds go up to 1%.

[Oriole1940]

Only a fool would in effect, say Always or Never, and use the 0.0% possibility.  In this world Truth is stranger than Fiction, and becoming much more scarce.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, Sanfran327 said:

When you think of it in terms of the division we play in, it's true. Central or West gives us at least fractions of a point.

Yea, but the Rockies should probably be at even more of a disadvantage based on division.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think they should bake in a .1% chance.

Yea, I'm surprised that's not the absolute minimum based on long tail risk.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Oriole1940 said:

Only a fool would in effect, say Always or Never, and use the 0.0% possibility.  In this world Truth is stranger than Fiction, and becoming much more scarce.  

I’m sure 0.0% is just shorthand for 0.03% or something.   That would be a 1 in 3000 chance.    

[Moose Milligan]

The name for this video is funny, too.  NSFW, language.  But you guys should know what this is.

[VaBird1]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Tampa’s % is a joke imo, especially compared to Boston.

I might give Boston a 47% chance to finish 3rd.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

So, there is a non-zero chance that the sun could explode today, but a zero percent chance for the Orioles to make the WS?  Vegas prop bet - which happens first:  1. The sun explodes.  2.  NCRaven wins Powerball.  3. Orioles win the World Series.

Problem is none are likely to happen in our lifetime!

[connja]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Some of this is the .523 Strength of Schedule forecast for Orioles opponents.

The other 29 teams are in a band from .484 to .510, so our gap from the 29th hardest schedule is another 50% atop the entire range.

 

 

If only we could play a few games against ourselves, our SoS would look much easier!

[Orioles0615]

5 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Folks on Twitter are having a good old time with our 0% chance.

I don't really understand this though.  We were in the playoff hunt last year for a good chunk of the season, and I feel we will be better this year with Mancini back, a very underrated bullpen, and the young arms coming up.  I honestly feel like we deserve at least a 5% chance

I mean we got rid of some key guys from our "playoff hunt team" and if this team even smells the fart trail of the playoffs Elias will just trade half of it off.

[Jagwar]

I'm surprised it's that high