Fangraphs gives Os 0.0% of making playoffs

[Just Regular]

It looks like 10 AL players earned RoY votes last year; the path beyond 0.0% is probably something like 10 Orioles players challenging for those three spots on any given ballot, unless of course three of them just dominate the podium.

Harvey, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, Tate, Baumann, Rutschman, Diaz

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Problem is none are likely to happen in our lifetime!

For two of those, I am truly sad.

[Aristotelian]

So if I bet $1 on the O's to make the playoffs at infinty odds, MLB will take that bet? I will go for it. 

[byrdz]

Fangraphs thinking they are The Onion who also got their dig in, Orioles Concerned After Multiple Players Arrive At Spring Training In Way Too Good Of Shape For Baseball

[Can_of_corn]

The funniest part of the Onion bit was when they called Mountcastle a shortstop.

[Sports Guy]

The Onion is a national treasure.

[DrungoHazewood]

0.0% implies that they believe the Orioles true odds are no better than 0.04%, or one-in-2500.  Given that both 1989 and 2012 have happened in the last 35 years I think they're understating the probabilities here. 

[Can_of_corn]

O's response on Twitter was total weak sauce.

They need to hire the peep from Wendys.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

O's response on Twitter was total weak sauce.

They need to hire the peep from Wendys.

 

Or Jimmy's Seafood!

[Three Run Homer]

[linedrive]

I'm actually okay with Fangraph's prediction. I mean, if we were to make it to the World Series and win, that would be great, but I'm not holding my breath. For now, my expectation is that the O's will finish with one of the worst records in baseball and receive one of the first three picks in next year's draft. I don't think it does much good thinking we have a chance to make it to the WS (or win it), but if it happens, so be it. If Fangraphs gave us a 0.04% chance or a 3% chance, does that really change anything? Probably not. But, if the players are aware of this Fangraphs stat, they could post it all over the locker room and use it for motivation!

[GuidoSarducci]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

0.0% implies that they believe the Orioles true odds are no better than 0.04%, or one-in-2500.  Given that both 1989 and 2012 have happened in the last 35 years I think they're understating the probabilities here. 

Its a bit ridiculous considering their odds to win the WS are 80-to-one.  

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Which actually puts the O's in only the second to last 'rung' which is shared by the Tigers, Mariners, Marlins and Giants, and actually better than the Royals, Pirates, D-backs and Rangers. 

There's no way they would stake a bet for 2500-to-one.  Bet $10 and win $25,000.  No bookie is going to take that on the off chance they actually have to pay out.

Edited February 18, 2021 by GuidoSarducci

[HowAboutThat]

Well, couple takeaways from this:

Based on this, we get the first pick in 2022! Yay for us!

Somebody has a HUGE RedSox bias.

Rockies and Indians fans must be tremendously sad right about now.

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Its a bit ridiculous considering their odds to win the WS are 80-to-one.  

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Which actually puts the O's in only the second to last 'rung' which is shared by the Tigers, Mariners, Marlins and Giants, and actually better than the Royals, Pirates, D-backs and Rangers. 

There's no way they would stake a bet for 2500-to-one.  Bet $10 and win $25,000.  No bookie is going to take that on the off chance they actually have to pay out.

And remember, this is just "to make the playoffs," not win the WS

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Its a bit ridiculous considering their odds to win the WS are 80-to-one.  

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

I’d say it’s the Vegas odds that are more ridiculous.   But of course they set the odds at a different place that leaves them a significant profit margin.