The battles I want to see in ST

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s been very good defensively the last two years.  +9 outs above average in 69 games.   His arm is not strong but he is excellent at chasing the ball down.   

I’m not sold on his offense but I think you put too much stock in his 2018-19 problems.   I’m keeping an open mind about whether he can play well enough to be a starter.   If he can keep his OPS north of .700, he’s a pretty decent overall player IMO.   
 

Well 2018 and 2019 a lot more than 2020 in terms of a sample size.  His AAA stats in 2019 also sucked and that was when everyone was hitting in AAA that year.  His 2020 saw him have a decent OPs fueled greatly by bunt hits.  That’s not a skill I expect to carry over and fuel him over 400+ at bats.

His 2018 AA season is what gets everyone excited but again, that was a SSS And was a total outlier to his MiL career.  Generally speaking, he was a 265ish/325ish/440ish OPs MiL guy.  That average isn’t likely to carry over well to the majors.  
 

Over 600 at bats, I would expect 240/290/400 at best from him.  His defense isn’t good enough to overcome a sub 700 OPS.  
 

The idea that we are even discussing this as a a possibility is horrible.  I get that people want Orioles players to succeed and you root for your guys but come on, at some point don’t you guys want to see actually good players instead of the square peg, round hole process of just hoping that we can catch lightning in a bottle and that a previous bad players all of a sudden becomes good?

Mullins has value.  He can be a guy that starts 1-2 times a week..come in late for pinch running and defense.  While he’s making no money, that player can provide you a spark.  That’s fine.  
 

If/when Hays gets hurt, if you have to start him for a few weeks, so be it.  In a SSS, he’s not likely to hurt you that bad but over the course of an actual full season, he isn’t good enough and we need to stop pretending like he is.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well 2018 and 2019 are more than double the sample size 2020 was.  His AAA stats in 2019 also sucked and that was when everyone was hitting in AAA that year.  His 2020 saw him have a decent OPs fueled greatly by bunt hits.  That’s not a skill I expect to carry over and fuel him over 400+ at bats.

His 2018 AA season is what gets everyone excited but again, that was a SSS And was a total outlier to his MiL career.  Generally speaking, he was a 265ish/325ish/440ish OPs MiL guy.  That average isn’t likely to carry over well to the majors.  
 

Over 600 at bats, I would expect 240/290/400 at best from him.  His defense isn’t good enough to overcome a sub 700 OPS.  
 

The idea that we are even discussing this as a a possibility is horrible.  I get that people want Orioles players to succeed and you root for your guys but come on, at some point don’t you guys want to see actually good players instead of the square peg, round hole process of just hoping that we can catch lightning in a bottle and that a previous bad players all of a sudden becomes good?

Mullins has value.  He can be a guy that starts 1-2 times a week..come in late for pinch running and defense.  While he’s making no money, that player can provide you a spark.  That’s fine.  
 

If/when Hays gets hurt, if you have to start him for a few weeks, so be it.  In a SSS, he’s not likely to hurt you that bad but over the course of an actual full season, he isn’t good enough and we need to stop pretending like he is.

But Mullins' game is more aesthetically pleasing than say DJ Stewart's.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But Mullins' game is more aesthetically pleasing than say DJ Stewart's.

Yea I mean, Stewart did have a ball hit his head, so he’s obviously not good.

[Just Regular]

I hope Mullins gets a bigger slice of the pie than Stewart v. RHP before Diaz (who I'm keen to see for the 2-way potential I don't feel either Mullins or Stewart have), but even in a very good Mullins season, a Lowenstein/Pederson-ish 450 PA seems fine.

Bunting is so rarely frequently practiced, I haven't yet learned (I hope he forces me to) if Statcast simple metrics like Average EV and Hard Hit Rate are nuanced enough to ignore bunts yet.   For today any readouts of him in the worst percentiles of those I mostly give a pass on.   Watching his hitting, its more can he get it to the gaps a couple times a week (Curtis Goodwin couldn't) to stay afloat - I think defenses will adapt more effectively if he can sustain as a strong side platoon player.

McKenna's rating by Longenhagen was a nice surprise - maybe he has more of a shot than I'd guessed to blend Mullins + Hays' strengths, and be in the mix sooner rather than later.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I mean, Stewart did have a ball hit his head, so he’s obviously not good.

There is a lot more to it than that.   Fast guy beating out bunts is more fun than chunky boi taking walks and hitting dongs.

But Stewart has been the more valuable player.

[survivedc]

It's not like Mullins has no history of delivering some game power. I generally agree that he should be more of a platoon/part time player, but to cast him as a one-trick bunting pony does a disservice to his overall ability. 

Last year Mullins was 4/3/3 (2b/3b/hr) in the XBH department, interesting to be that even. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

It's not like Mullins has no history of delivering some game power. I generally agree that he should be more of a platoon/part time player, but to cast him as a one-trick bunting pony does a disservice to his overall ability. 

Last year Mullins was 4/3/3 (2b/3b/hr) in the XBH department, interesting to be that even. 

MLB supposedly took some of the juice out of the ball. 

[survivedc]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

MLB supposedly took some of the juice out of the ball. 

Maybe he better stick to bunting then.

[CarrRun49]

8 minutes ago, survivedc said:

It's not like Mullins has no history of delivering some game power. I generally agree that he should be more of a platoon/part time player, but to cast him as a one-trick bunting pony does a disservice to his overall ability. 

Last year Mullins was 4/3/3 (2b/3b/hr) in the XBH department, interesting to be that even. 

By in game power, do you mean a drag bunt down the first base line that goes 65' versus a push bunt down the third base line that goes 40'?

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, survivedc said:

It's not like Mullins has no history of delivering some game power. I generally agree that he should be more of a platoon/part time player, but to cast him as a one-trick bunting pony does a disservice to his overall ability. 

Last year Mullins was 4/3/3 (2b/3b/hr) in the XBH department, interesting to be that even. 

He is a professional player.  I expect him to do some positive things every once in a while.  
 

I am not sure how many bunt hits he has but I know it was at least 8.  So, if you take away those 8 hits, his average goes from 271 to 214.  His OBP goes to 261 from 315 and his slugging goes to 350 from 407.

So, how excited would you be about a 214/261/350 hitter?  If he doesn’t get those hits or even just gets half of them, are we even talking about him being on the team?  

Now, don’t get me wrong...bunting is a tool and one that’s great if he can use it.  But he had a small sampling of at bats last year and a lot of teams probably weren’t ready for it.  They will be now.  Will he be able to exploit that by hitting it past them? Maybe but for now and what we know of his career, I don’t see any reason to believe he is an everyday player, like Wildcard is suggesting.

[BohKnowsBmore]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is a professional player.  I expect him to do some positive things every once in a while.  
 

I am not sure how many bunt hits he has but I know it was at least 8.  So, if you take away those 8 hits, his average goes from 271 to 214.  His OBP goes to 261 from 315 and his slugging goes to 350 from 407.

So, how excited would you be about a 214/261/350 hitter?  If he doesn’t get those hits or even just gets half of them, are we even talking about him being on the team?  

Now, don’t get me wrong...bunting is a tool and one that’s great if he can use it.  But he had a small sampling of at bats last year and a lot of teams probably weren’t ready for it.  They will be now.  Will he be able to exploit that by hitting it past them? Maybe but for now and what we know of his career, I don’t see any reason to believe he is an everyday player, like Wildcard is suggesting.

Interesting. So you're telling me that if you took away a good chunk of his positive results and kept all of the negatives, his overall line would suffer? I never thought about it that way...

[NCRaven]

I'm on record as saying that I think Mountcastle will be fine defensively in LF given time and that his bat will more than compensate for any defensive deficiencies.  But, having said that, I would not mind if the outfield talent pushed Mountcastle to 1B and Mancini to DH (where he has hit well in the past).  If 2021 establishes Hayes, Santander, Diaz, Mullins, and Stewart as legitimate options in a ML outfield and Mountcastle and J. Jones in the infield with Rutschman knocking on the door at C, I'd be thrilled.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He is a professional player.  I expect him to do some positive things every once in a while.  
 

I am not sure how many bunt hits he has but I know it was at least 8.  So, if you take away those 8 hits, his average goes from 271 to 214.  His OBP goes to 261 from 315 and his slugging goes to 350 from 407.

So, how excited would you be about a 214/261/350 hitter?  If he doesn’t get those hits or even just gets half of them, are we even talking about him being on the team? 

Per Fangraphs he was 9 for 15 on bunt hit attempts.   He also was successful 4 of 5 times on sac bunts.   Pretty nice ratios in both regards.    

In his previous 2 seasons he was 4 for 13 when bunting for a hit, and 4 for 6 on sac bunts.   

Looking around the league, I do see some players who bunt pretty often and have success rates over 50%.    César Hernández, 39 bunt hits over the last 5 years (2nd in MLB) at a 57.4% success rate; Rougned Odor, 30 bunt hits (4th) at a 53.6% success rate.   The median success rate for the top 30 in total bunt hits is a bit over 40%.

So, do I think Mullins could bunt as often as he did last year and sustain a 60% success rate?    No. But is it a really good weapon in his arsenal?    Yes.   He’s really, really good at it.    

Without the bunt attempts I come up with .232/.285/.384 for last year.   But I think the bunts will always boost those numbers a little, though not as much as last year.   

The OPS projections I’ve seen on Mullins have him between .637 (PECOTA) and .689 (Steamer).    That’s a reasonable range to guess, and if Mullins falls in there, he’s not a starting OF.    But he’ll get some playing time and we’ll see if he hits better than expected.    

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I'm on record as saying that I think Mountcastle will be fine defensively in LF given time and that his bat will more than compensate for any defensive deficiencies.  But, having said that, I would not mind if the outfield talent pushed Mountcastle to 1B and Mancini to DH (where he has hit well in the past).  If 2021 establishes Hayes, Santander, Diaz, Mullins, and Stewart as legitimate options in a ML outfield and Mountcastle and J. Jones in the infield with Rutschman knocking on the door at C, I'd be thrilled.

However, I think O's management want to see Mancini play a lot of 1B because it makes him more tradable.

Getting 6 guys regular playing time in 5 spots in not that hard.   Each guy just gets a day off every 6 games. Plus injuries will cause time off for some players.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

However, I think O's management want to see Mancini play a lot of 1B because it makes him more tradable.

Getting 6 guys regular playing time in 5 spots in not that hard.   Each guy just gets a day off every 6 games. Plus injuries will cause time off for some players.

I'm sure that other teams know that Mancini can play first base if he's healthy.